Why are TVs that have been "abandoned" by young people getting more and more expensive?
At the moment when multiple entertainment terminals are parallel, TV has gradually stepped down from the position of the center of the family, and it is more of a decoration or decoration. Some multi-scene applications, such as "wallpapers", are just a function that has been reluctantly developed for the sake of good sales.
Judging from last year's terminal market data, the global TV market brand shipments hit a new low in the past decade. In a shrinking market, competition between brands is also intensifying. At the same time, more existing TVs are also eating ash at home, and the TV start-up rate in mainland China has dropped sharply to less than 30% in 2022.
An interesting phenomenon is that the retail sales of the TV market have remained almost stable against the background of declining sales. Behind this,It is the upgrading of the structure of TV products,As a result of the operational adjustment of upstream panel manufacturers,Flatten the losses caused by the decline in sales。
Judging from the data available so far in the first quarter, the entire Chinese TV market is still in the recovery period, and the judgments of different institutions are not the same. However, one thing is certain, and that is that the sales of TV caps continue to grow.
"In 2024, for major sports events such as the European Cup and the Olympic Games, large-screen promotions, superimposed "trade-in", these will be the two major driving forces of China's TV market this year", Wang Xianming, research director of Lotu Technology (RUNTO) TV industry chain, said to Titanium Media App.
This generation of young people doesn't like to watch TV anymore
At the end of last year, it was pointed out in the review of the titanium media App,The domestic TV market has narrowed,In addition to product upgrades,More brands have begun to roll overseas to seek growth。 According to the "Global TV Brand Market Shipment Quarterly Tracker" released by Lotu Technology (RUNTO), in 2023, the global TV market brand shipments will reach 201 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% from 2022, hitting a new low in the past decade.
Image source: Lotu Technology
The same is true for the Chinese market, with the shipment of branded complete units in the Chinese TV market in 2023 being 36.56 million units, down 8.4% year-on-year from 2022. Among them, the decline in the first half of the year was slightly 0.5%, the decline in the second half of the year expanded to 14.3%, the monthly year-on-year decline was more than 10%, and the last month of the year broke -20%.
Even during the big promotion, it did not arouse consumers' desire to buy. In 2023's "618" and "Double 11", the total retail sales volume will drop by nearly 10% and more than 20% year-on-year, respectively.
The current predicament in the TV market is a cyclical problem that every consumer electronics terminal will encounter. Unlike in its heyday, the function of the living room has changed, and the way users entertain has also been iterated. In the era of fragmented reading, TV is no longer a rigid need, and the boot rate is also declining.
According to the "2024 China Smart TV Interaction New Trend Report" released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the TV startup rate in mainland China has dropped from 70% in 2016 to less than 30% in 2022. It should be pointed out that the above-mentioned changes in the objective environment are only part of the reasons for the decline in the operating rate. Compared with China, the decline abroad is not so obvious.
Image source: AI-generated
In this regard,TCL founder、Chairman Li Dongsheng also proposed,From the basic conditions of China's high-definition display industry、Hardware,We are leading,Why is the startup rate of Chinese TV so low?These problems need to be thought about by all sectors of society,Find the reasons together。
"I hope that the relevant departments and industries can find the existing problems and difficulties and solve them, find ways to break the situation, increase the start-up rate of TV users, increase the attractiveness of TV content, and let more social capital be willing to invest in the high-definition display industry, so that the industry will become an important part of China's high-quality development." ”
AI is not the best solution to solve a problem right now
At present, with the rapid development of AI technology, consumer electronics has ushered in a new round of development opportunities, and PC and mobile phone manufacturers are talking about the integration with AI and the coming AI revolution. IDC predicts that in 2024, more than 70% of the Chinese market will be equipped with AI-functional terminal devices, and AI terminals will account for 55%. However, on the TV side, we have not seen a deeper integration at present. Judging from the products and strategies shown at this year's AWE, the integration of TV and AI is still in the exploratory period.
Sun Li, chief technology officer of TCL Industrial, told Titanium Media App that AI is very hot now, and it is a panacea, which can be used anywhere. The large model understands user intent very well and is also a good increment. However, when it comes to the AI paradigm now, it's more about soft and virtual things, while the things we consumers use exist in a physical way.
An industry analyst told us that now everyone is actively exploring the combination of AI and home appliances, but unlike mobile phones and other terminals, home appliances have their own unique attributes, and the operation mode and functional characteristics of the original products should also be considered in the process of combining with AI technology. If we don't focus on user experience and integrate AI and traditional home appliance technology, it will only create more cumbersome functions.
Talking about how to improve the startup rate, Zoey He, a senior analyst at GfK's home appliance division, told Titanium Media App that it is equipped with a suitable content system, uses AI to recommend content, improves the user's experience, reduces criticized content such as boot ads, and creates use scenarios, such as considering building games into the TV system for game TVs, or joint sales (joint switch, etc.) when selling.
Image source: AI-generated
Titanium media App believes that TV is different from mobile phones and PCs, and the attributes of its large screen determine the first attraction to users or display and content, and AI is not the best solution at present. On the one hand, it is necessary to improve the display quality, and the viewing experience of TV is far better than that of mobile phones and tablets with smaller screens, but to achieve more delicate picture quality, which is lacking by many brands.
on the other hand,It is in terms of content and interactive experience,For example, make the use of TV simpler,Content selection is more intuitive and convenient,Further strengthen human-computer interaction operation,Do"What you want to see is what you watch。
Wang Xianming, research director of the TV industry chain of Lotu Technology (RUNTO), also pointed out, "It is recommended to strengthen the interconnection between TV and the" small screen ", so as to make the operation and use more convenient, such as 'one touch and connection'." Only when the operation of TV is more simple and humane, and the advertising pop-ups on each page such as nesting doll charges and boot advertisements can consumers be pulled back to the TV. ”
Tired in both directions, but the TV is more expensive
The TV market"Dilemma" will continue for a long time,Titanium media App data obtained from a number of institutions show that the performance of the domestic TV market in the first quarter is still up and down。
Image source: Lotu Technology
According to a report released by RUNTO, TV shipments in January this year exceeded any month last year, but in February, they fell sharply by 26.6% year-on-year and 57.8% month-on-month, and shipments also reached the lowest level in the past 13 months. Excluding the impact of the two-year Spring Festival dislocation, the cumulative shipments from January to February 2024 will be 5.96 million units, an increase of 3.1% over the same period in 2023.
GfK analysts pointed out,In March,The market may fall back compared with the same period last year,This is mainly due to two reasons,On the one hand, the same period last year in 2022When the epidemic is completely opened,The lagging sales demand of the color TV market was quickly released in the first half of the year,Resulting in a relatively high base in March last year。
On the other hand, the introduction of the trade-in policy is being promoted all over the country, and the current market is in a wait-and-see mode, so the growth of the market should be relatively delayed. In addition, due to the influence of consumption rhythms such as the promotion season, it should be exerted in the later stage.
For the performance of the domestic TV market this year, the expectations of institutions also differ. However, there is one thing that is agreed upon is that the sales volume of TVs will grow. According to Lotu Technology (RUNTO) online monitoring data, from January to March 2024, the retail sales of online public retail channels in China's TV market (excluding content e-commerce such as Doukuai) rose sharply by more than 30%, with an average price of about 2809 yuan, an increase of 24% year-on-year.
Aowei cloud network (AVC)General Manager of the Consumer Electronics DivisionWeng Zhenhua also pointed out,According to the market performance in January and February,We believe that the year-on-year sales performance of the overall market of color TVs in the first quarter of this year is better than the year-on-year performance of sales。
Behind the increase in sales, it is not the sales pull, but the fact that TVs are selling more expensive. Under the inherent business perception, the most direct solution to poor sales is price reduction. Indeed, for a long time in the past, many brands have fought price wars, and the final result is not satisfactory. Since last year, the TV market has gone the opposite way, and prices have been rising.
There are two main factors driving this. The first is the structural upgrading of the TV market, the trend of large-size in the Chinese market continues to upgrade, represented by 75 inches and 85 inches, the retail volume of the online market in the first quarter increased by 71.4% and 193.0% year-on-year respectively.
Zoey He, senior analyst of GfK's home appliance division, revealed that taking 75-inch color TVs as an example, according to GfK's retail monitoring, the share of online retail sales in January 2024 reached 22.4%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points over the same period last year. The share of retail sales of 85-inch and 86-inch color TV products reached 8.3%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points over the same period last year.
Image source: Lotu Technology
Second, the high price of panels is also the key reason. From the supply side, panel factories have now switched to a flexible production control strategy, and the trend of panel price increases has continued under the joint promotion of multiple favorable factors. The data shows that in April, all sizes will maintain the March increase, small and medium-sized sizes will rise by $1-2, and medium and large sizes will rise by $3-5. This round of price increases will be carried out at least until May, and each size will reach the previous highs one after another. After June, it is necessary to observe the market performance of China's 618 promotion.
"The main reason behind this is still caused by the transformation of the supply and demand relationship of the panel. Panel prices are rising strongly, and the market is in a seller's market. At present, the annual shipments of Chinese mainland manufacturers account for nearly 70% of the global market," Wang Xianming, research director of the TV industry chain of Lotu Technology (RUNTO), told Titanium Media App, "At the same time, the strategy of Chinese panel factories has become mature. The business philosophy of the main manufacturers has shifted from the previous 'full production and full sales' to 'production based on sales'. Since the Spring Festival in February this year, the average utilization rate of high-generation panel production lines is less than 50%, which directly leads to a big discount in panel supply in February. ”
Image source: AI-generated
Some people may have questions,Market demand is shrinking,The price of TV terminals is still rising,Will it lead to worse sales?This should be considered from many aspects,From the perspective of terminal manufacturers,The rise in prices is caused by the rise in upstream costs,The price war is not healthy competition,It will be more conducive to the market cycle by improving the quality and raising the price。 As a panel manufacturer, operational adjustment will be a strategy for a long time in the future, otherwise it will only be trapped in a downward cycle.
For the user side, under the concept of the new generation of young consumers, they pay more attention to high-quality experience. As mentioned above, display and content are the key to bringing TV back to the center of the living room. In addition, this year is a big year for sports, and major sports events such as the European Cup and the Olympic Games are superimposed"trade-in",It will be the two major driving forces of China's TV market this year。
"According to the past rules, it can be found,In the year when sports events were held in a centralized manner,There are different degrees of positive driving effect on the color TV industry。 Driven by multiple favorable factors, the trend of panel price increases has also continued", said Weng Zhenhua, general manager of the consumer electronics division of AVC. (This article was first published on the Titanium Media App, author/Du Zhiqiang, editor/Zhong Yi)