Discuss the review | Is the Lakers' free-throw advantage a break-up lead? The numbers tell you the truth

Recently, the Lakers have had a good momentum, winning five in a row, but during this period, the Lakers have been questioned several times because the free throw advantage is too obvious.

Against the Grizzlies, the Lakers made 35 free throws to their opponents' 19. Against the Bucks, the Lakers made 32 free throws to their opponents' 17. Against the Pacers, the Lakers made 43 free throws to just 16 for opponents. Playing the 76ers, the Lakers made 33 free throws to 24 against opponents. Against the Hawks, the Lakers made 20 free throws to the opponent's 15, which was already the smallest free throw advantage for the Lakers during the five-game winning streak.

Pacers coach and Bucks star Antetokounmpo have both vaguely expressed their dissatisfaction with the free throw. Many people throw out conspiracy theories that the Lakers have been given preferential treatment by the referee, what is the truth?

What is an unusual Lakers free-throw break-and-shoot lead?

One of the reasons for the conspiracy theories is that the Lakers have taken 451 more free throws than their opponents, leading the league in a broken gear, and at this pace, they can make 507 more free throws by the end of the season. Including last season, the Lakers also topped the league with 476 more free throws than their opponents.

So, is it really an abnormal phenomenon for the Lakers to take a break-in lead from a free throw?

Let's take a look back at history. Which team has the most free throws in a single season this century? Is it a team with LeBron James, a team with James Harden, or a team with Kobe Bryant or Shaquille O'Neal?

No, if you're given 100 chances, you'll never be able to guess.

That team was the Charlotte Hornets in 2017-18, who made 722 more free throws than their opponents but finished with a 36-46 record. Do you think the Hornets are getting preferential treatment from the league for their free throw advantage? Is there a conspiracy theory in this? That Hornets team has Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard, Jeremy Lamb and so on, and none of them looks like players who can get special treatment.

In terms of percentage, the Hornets took 48% more free throws than their opponents, and as a comparison, the Lakers in 2022-23 were +28% and the Lakers this season were 34%, ranking 15th and 9th this century, respectively.

So, compared to history, this season's Lakers data is not an outlier.

It's also important to emphasize that, historically, extreme advantage in free throws has not led to an extreme advantage in game wins. Not counting the Lakers this season, the top 15 teams in this century have an average regular season record of 49-33, and only the 76ers in the 2000-01 season made it to the Finals.

Why do the Lakers have a huge free-throw advantage?

People who think there are conspiracy theories like to emphasize that the Lakers don't rank high in the number of breakthroughs per game, and it's not normal to have fewer breakthroughs and more free throws.

However, a basketball game is not made up of a single factor of the ball handler breaking through. The Lakers are ranked 4th in the league in low-post offensive frequency, 6th in the league in fast-break frequency, and 1st in the league in pick-and-roll screener receiving offense frequency, which will not be counted as "breakthroughs", but can effectively kill the basket.

Therefore, this season, the Lakers rank 29th in the league in the proportion of three-point shots, and tie for second in the league in the proportion of shots made under the basket. In other words, the Lakers' shots are heavily focused on the areas that are most likely to cause fouls.

Defensively, the opposite is true, the Lakers give opponents the fourth-lowest percentage of shots under the basket in the league, Anthony Davis's crouching defense limits the percentage of opponents to the basket, and they give opponents the fifth-place three-point frequency, which means they concentrate a lot of opponents' shots into areas that are difficult to foul.

There are many factors that determine the free throw, and the star whistle is definitely there. But if you want to get a penalty, you first have to be able to hit the ball into the box. The Magic have the highest percentage of shots from the basket this season, while their free-throw percentage of 29 percent is also the highest, which is higher than the Lakers' 27.8 percent. Why didn't the Magic have enough of a free throw advantage? Because their defense emphasizes aggressiveness from the outside, and there are too many fouls on several outside lines.