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The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

The Rockets are 37-35 and on a 10-game winning streak, one win away from the Warriors (38-34). In the final 10 games, can the Rockets squeeze out the Warriors and catch the last train of the play-offs?

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

Back on March 2, the Rockets were 25-34 and ranked 12th in the West, seven wins away from the No. 10 seed in the West, and looked far from the play-in race. But in the past four weeks, the Rockets have suddenly taken off, not only surpassing the Jazz, but also getting closer and closer to the Warriors. CBS Sports analyzed it from a data perspective, talking about three key factors that will determine the fate of Huo Yong in the future.

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

Key Factor 1: Jalen Green

Jokic is likely to be the regular season MVP for the 2023-24 season, averaging 27.3 points per game since March, while Green has averaged 28.5 points per game in March. Behind Green's scoring statistic is a shooting percentage that's high enough for a guard: 50.4 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three-point range. Doncic (31.8) has averaged the league's highest points per game since March, but his 45.9 percent shooting from the field and 35.1 percent from three-point range are lower than Green's.

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

The stats show that Green hit 51 goals single-handedly, nearly 40 percent (19) of those coming in March. The Rockets are increasingly believing that he can create offensive opportunities on his own, and that is paying off. He had to share the backcourt with Kevin Porter Jr. for the first two seasons of his career, when the Rockets wanted Porter to be a traditional point guard, but it didn't work out. The Rockets brought in VanVleet again this season, and then organized the offense through the big man Shin Jing. With Shin Kyung out of action due to injury, Green really got his chance.

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

Whether the Rockets can maintain the momentum to continue to lift off depends largely on whether Green's form can continue. Since March, Green has shot 42.9 percent from three-point range and hit 54 three-pointers (the league's most in the same period), but with this month's performance, Green has only shot 34 percent from three-point range this season. There is widespread concern that once Green's hot hand subsides, the Rockets' offense will decline significantly.

Defenders will also be more frantic to stop him, and if Green can withstand these tests, his star quality and status will be greatly improved, and the hope of the Rockets catching up with the Warriors will also be greatly increased.

Key Factor 2: Warriors' form and schedule

The Warriors' record since All-Star Weekend is 11-8, which looks pretty good, but half of the opponents they have faced are not in the playoff zone, and in the two games against the Lakers, James didn't play in the first game, and the second game only played 12 minutes, and the Lakers still scored six more points than the Warriors in those periods. The other three wins were against the Bucks without Middleton, the Heat without Butler and Herro and the Knicks without Randle, Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson. The American media believes that the Warriors' state is actually worse than the record reflects, and there is no certainty of winning against a real strong team.

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?
The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

The good news, though, is that the rest of the Warriors' schedule is much less difficult than the Rockets. The Rockets have an average win rate of 52.1 percent in their final 10 games, ranking 10th in the league in terms of difficulty in their schedules (note: the higher they rank, the harder they are), while the Warriors have won 44.1 percent of their last 10 games, ranking only 27th in the league (the least difficult in the West).

In addition, the Warriors have a 2-0 record against the Rockets this season, so even if the Rockets win their last regular season meeting against the Warriors (April 5), the Warriors will still be ahead of the Rockets if the two sides have the same final record.

Key Factor 3: Shin Kyung's potential comeback

Shin Kyung's potential comeback is an X-factor for Huo Yong's chase fight.

When Shin went down with an injury on March 11, many fans feared that he would suffer a long-term injury, but it was eventually confirmed that his condition was not so serious and that he could even return late in the regular season. When he was healthy, Shin Kyung averaged 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5 assists per game this season, and was the Rockets' top scorer.

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

However, for the Rockets at this stage, Shin Jing's comeback may not be good news. Because after his injury, the Rockets' style of play changed dramatically, the pace of the game changed from 14th to 5th, and the bench interior Landale got more time and was efficient. In the eight games since Shin Jing's injury, Landale played an average of 23.2 minutes per game, contributing 10.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks.

The Rockets largely abandoned the traditional center-forward style of play, with Amen Thompson nominally a guard/forward and a lot of the time playing the role of center on the offensive end. His current shooting ability is hard to make an effective wing player, but the Rockets have transformed him into a role near the basket and his efficiency has increased dramatically.

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

In the past eight games, Amen Thompson has averaged 15.6 points, 9.4 rebounds (4.0 frontboards per game), 2.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 61.2% from the field. Amen's 4.0 frontboard per game averaged the fourth highest in the league in the same period, behind only Capela, Gobert and Bushy Eyebrow, three true interior players.

The stats don't lie|There are only 10 games left in the end, what is the chance that the Rockets will squeeze out the Warriors?

Shen Jing's comeback has the potential to disrupt the rocket's current chemistry and rhythm. Looking at it now, it is not easy for Green and Shen Jing to complete the run-in in a short period of time and promote each other.

Of course, in the long run, the two still have a chance to coexist. If the Rockets don't plan to send one of them away, the American media believes that Shin Jing and Green should strive to become a duo like Jokic + Murray or Embiid + Maxey. Do you think the Rockets will eventually squeeze out the Warriors?

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