Six major sub-sectors are worth paying attention to The index center is expected to rise in the fourth quarter

Every reporter: Wang Haimin Every editor: Xiao Ruidong

With the continuous catalysis of policies, recently, "new quality productivity" has become the focus of attention of major brokerage research institutes. The "2024 Capital Market Spring Strategy Conference" held by Shenwan Hongyuan on March 27 also focused on investment opportunities in industries related to new quality productivity.

Shenwan Hongyuan believes that there are similarities between the current future industries under the background of new quality productivity and the industrial cycle stage of strategic emerging industries in 2010. For example, at present, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, generative artificial intelligence, virtual reality, future networks and other fields are all at the inflection point of marking the development of molded products to mass production and commercialization.

Photo by China News Service reporter Han Suyuan

In addition, the 2024 spring industry comparative investment strategy released by Shenwan Hongyuan pointed out that based on factors such as policies, market transaction characteristics, valuation, fundamentals, and chips, it is recommended to focus on new productivity-related industries in the medium and long term.

The relevant research report released by the strategy team of Industrial Securities pointed out that based on the interpretation of policies and the process of industrial development, six major sub-sectors of "new quality productivity" worth paying attention to have been summarized, including artificial intelligence, intelligent driving, biomanufacturing innovative drugs, commercial aerospace low-altitude economy, humanoid robots and hydrogen energy.

The future industry is at an inflection point in its development

Recently, at the policy level, there has been a lot of catalyst for the development of new quality productive forces. For example, "vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new quality productivity" is listed as the top ten tasks in the 2024 government work report.

In this context, the new quality productivity has also become the focus of attention of major brokerage research institutes recently, and a number of leading brokerages have successively released research reports on the theme of new quality productivity. The "2024 Capital Market Spring Strategy Conference" held by Shenwan Hongyuan on March 27 focused on investment opportunities in industries related to new quality productivity.

Since the end of February, Shenwan Hongyuan has released a number of special reports on new quality productivity, the latest of which is entitled "Stock Market Mapping of New Quality Productivity from the Seven Strategic Emerging Industries in 2010". It pointed out that the future industry is an important starting point for the formation of new quality productivity, mainly including humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, brain-computer interface, virtual reality & future display, quantum information, generative artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, future networks and new energy storage and other fields. There are similarities between the future industries in the context of new quality productivity in 2024 and the industrial cycle stage of strategic emerging industries in 2010.

For example, in 2010, a new generation of information technology was in the ascendant, which can be said to be the first year of mobile Internet in the true sense. China's smartphone shipments have entered an upward inflection point since 2010, and various new mobile Internet applications and new models have emerged one after another, with Meituan, iQiyi, and Xiaomi also established during the year. Although the business model was immature and the industry leader was not established, and it was accompanied by fierce competition, such as the "Thousand Group War" staged by group buying during the year, and the "3Q War" opened by 360 and Tencent, the mobile Internet officially entered the fast lane of development from "1 to 10". Similarly, in the current future industry, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, generative artificial intelligence, virtual reality, future networks and other fields are all at the inflection point of marking the development of molded products to mass production and commercialization.

In addition, new energy vehicles in 2010 are still in the early stage of the industry. According to the yearbook of energy-saving and new energy vehicles, in 2010 and before, the output of new energy vehicles in mainland China was only less than 10,000 (7,605 in 2010), and the penetration rate could almost be considered to be 0; after 2014, new energy vehicles began to develop to a certain extent, but the most rapid stage of industrialization was after 2020. At present, most of the future industries are in the research and development stage in the fields of brain-computer interface, future display, quantum information, etc., and the industry is in the early stage of concept, similar to new energy vehicles in 2010.

It is worth mentioning that A-shares were a structural market in 2010, and the technology theme market ran through the capital market in 2010, and more than half of the new high-tech stocks came from technology growth.

However, Shenwan Hongyuan also said that the macro environment at home and abroad in 2010 is not comparable with 2024. At present, the economy is heading for recovery, there is no inflationary pressure, liquidity is relatively loose, the interest rate on 10-year government bonds has been lower than 2.4%, and the economy is in a critical period of structural transformation to high-quality development. At the same time, overseas countries are facing fierce technological competition and geopolitical risks. Therefore, the difference in the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad makes it impossible to judge the overall equity market. Since the policy strength and the development stage of the science and technology industry can be objectively compared, the policy and industry-driven science and technology theme market law also have certain reference significance.

Shenwan Hongyuan's latest industry comparative investment strategy for the spring of 2024 further points out that based on factors such as policies, market transaction characteristics, valuation, fundamentals, and chips, it is recommended to focus on new productivity-related industries in the medium and long term, such as artificial intelligence, robotics and low-altitude economy.

In addition, a number of recent research reports on topics related to new quality productivity released by a number of brokerages also recognized the prospect of new quality productivity and recommended specific industries.

According to the research report released by the strategy team of Hua Chuang Securities a few days ago, there is a certain similarity between the background of the introduction of industrial policies related to new quality productivity and the current policy promotion process and the "double carbon" policy launched in 2020. The purpose of the "dual carbon" policy is to alleviate a series of problems such as old energy constraints and global warming through the development of new energy, and the new quality productivity is an important starting point for fighting the labor force decline brought about by population aging and improving total factor productivity.

Shenwan Hongyuan is optimistic about high dividends

From a medium- to long-term perspective, although the development prospects of new productivity are broad and will inject new momentum into the market, A-shares face certain uncertainties in the short term.

On March 27, the A-share market saw a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.26% to 2,993.14 points, and more than 4,600 stocks in the market fell. On March 28, the A-share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.59% to 3,010.66 points.

In the latest A-share investment strategy report released by Shenwan Hongyuan in the spring of 2024, the general trend research and judgment view is that the performance growth of A-shares in 2024 still needs to be polished, and the A-share market in the first three quarters is generally a volatile market, and the overall stability of the market and the mining of structural highlights are still highly dependent on policy catalysis. The performance in 2025 will be out of the bottom area, the fundamental expectations in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be anchored in 2025, and the investment opportunities with high performance + reasonable valuation will increase, and the index center is expected to rise. In the short term, during the performance verification period in April, the direction of continuous improvement of the economy is scarce, and the market is resting normally, waiting for the policy stimulus elasticity and the new economy industry trend to be clear.

For both ends of the "dumbbell strategy", Shenwan Hongyuan is currently more optimistic about the aggressiveness of high-dividend assets, reiterating the judgment of the return of high-dividend style in April.

The Spring 2024 A-share investment strategy report pointed out that high dividends are not only defensive, but also offensive, and the market's understanding of the connotation and extension of high-dividend investment is far from sufficient. High-dividend investment is a trend of thought, and the center of aggregate economic growth is declining, making it more difficult to demonstrate sustainability, and the market is more cautious about the extrapolation of high growth in the new economy. In this case, the weight of the impact of growth on valuation decreases, and the dividend ratio that already has an impact on valuation (especially the increase in the dividend ratio with limited impact on future growth expectations), discount rate (the most important influencing factors are the stability of the risk-free interest rate and corporate ROE), as well as the impact of performance visibility and business model stability on valuation are increased.

Shenwan Hongyuan believes that high dividends do not necessarily mean that there is no high growth, and the focus is on high-quality mergers and acquisitions. In 2024, the extension growth of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises may be an important highlight of the strengthening of "medium and special valuation". Technology companies break through key technical bottlenecks through mergers and acquisitions, and the normal elasticity of extension is restored, which is also the source of new growth points on the side of the "dumbbell strategy" technology growth.

National Business Daily