9.9 trillion big lies! Do you dare to tell the "diving" at the end of the game, are you panicking?

Author | Xie Xiaobai

At 6 o'clock this morning, the mobile phone rang non-stop, what "the central bank, the national debt", and then there was a nose and an eye to make up:

9.9 trillion special government bonds will be issued soon!

Before 9 o'clock, each group was full of impetuousness.

Immediately followed by an advertising version of the foreign media, "XX demands, the central bank buys treasury bonds." ”

directly pushed the atmosphere to a climax, and the market opened suddenly, suddenly, suddenly!

My choice is to reduce my position!

The logic of deleveraging is very clear:

9.9 trillion big lies dare to tell! Dare to think about this, what else can't they do?

Why am I so sure that this "big essay" is fake?

There is only one reason:

The exchange rate does not move at all!

Here's a quick fact:

The capital market is hypocritical and enthusiastic, fresh and romantic, and easily affected by news and emotions.

The exchange rate market is the complete opposite, cold and realistic, boring and boring.

After all, there is a single subject of trading, and the participants are all professional players.

If QE is really prepared, then the offshore RMB must not be pulled to the sky?

Against the backdrop of the exchange rate not moving, the big A riot is clearly ...... Leveraged funds have to run away.

So, today's tail dive, unexpected?

In fact, it is very rare to be able to hold on to the end of the game and then dive.

I originally thought that if I pulled it up, the leveraged funds would be shipped.

So, I chose to reduce my position, but I didn't expect the power of emotions to be so persistent and strong.

Behind this is about March, everyone's account has deflated a lot, and they are eager to return to their capital, right?

Moreover, this "big composition" is very professional from the writing, to the logic, and even the communication chain, and the details are even fuller.

But have you thought about the following questions?

What is the purpose of buying treasury bonds? Is it necessary?

Where will the released liquidity go?

It really flowed to the residents, and the income did not improve, but gave rise to a bunch of bubbles first. Pork 50 oceans/kg, is there still a way to live this day?

It really flows to the real estate market, housing prices continue to rise, do you guess whether speculators buy or sell first?

If it really flows to the capital market, do you guess that the major shareholders will reduce their holdings on the high price? and then use it to fill the holes in the place?

In fact, no matter which way you look at it, QE is very unreliable now!

The reason is not complicated, there is no shortage of money in the market at all!

The problem of the current market is not at all the problem of insufficient liquidity in the financial system, and the huge scissors difference between M1 and M2 has already explained:

A large amount of money is idling in the financial system.

And behind this is:

The problem of insufficient demand in the real economy and a serious downturn in investment desire is the M1 problem.

At this stage, there is no difference between QE irrigation and the men's football team inviting Lippi and the stupid son of the landlord's family asking the professor to be a tutor.

It doesn't solve anything other than exposing a huge amount of debt.

Therefore, it is completely impossible and unnecessary.

You may ask, is it really used to solve the debt problem?

Even if the problem of local debt is to be solved, then it will not flow to any entity, and it is likely to be a targeted bond issuance, with the purpose of blocking the transmission chain and avoiding a domino effect.

In other words, at best, it will smooth market liquidity and will not play a material role in interest rates.

So, isn't it strange that the exchange rate doesn't move in the slightest?

But the market is still so manic, it can only say one thing:

The level of composition is on the rise!

This requires the "old drivers" to drive more steadily.

In fact, the recent market "warning" sounds!

Following the situation in the financial report of China Merchants Bank, the financial report of Everbright Bank also hit the street, with net profit falling by 8.96% year-on-year, and it was close to the limit in early trading.

This suggests that the "high-dividend" sector may have entered a period of ebb.

After all, last year's profit concession was not a bank's business, so didn't other banks lose money?

In addition, more transparent Hong Kong stocks, high-dividend sectors have begun to ebb and flow.

For example, the plate represents Zhejiang, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Ningbo, which has returned to the pre-liberation period overnight.

Zhejiang Huhangyong has all the good qualities of high dividends:

The dividend rate is very high, basically remaining above 70%;

The dividend yield is very high, with a dividend yield of 8.37% after the dive;

The asset quality is very high, and the highway revenue right in the developed areas of Zhejiang.

The track is stable, the performance growth is in line with expectations, and it is known to maintain a sufficiently high dividend rate and dividend yield, which is a very good high-dividend target.

But it was this guy with thick eyebrows and big eyes who actually rebelled.

The direct reason is the decrease in dividend payout this year: HK$0.05.

The reason for the decrease in dividends, Zhejiang Huhangyong said:

Highway rights are time-limited and require spending money to buy new sections.

Does this mean that if you buy it, you can buy it?

finally survived until the time limit came, how many people stared at this chicken that laid golden eggs?

How tragic will the game be behind this?

In addition, what does the recent mention of "maximizing the encouragement of private enterprises to participate in the construction and operation of infrastructure and other projects" mean?

When you think about it, can you still buy the high-dividend sector?

By the way, PetroChina also stood up today and said:

This year, it is planned to build more than 1,000 charging and swapping stations.

No, the big guys started to "don't put their eggs in one basket anymore." ”

The high-profile press release of the talks came out.

I scanned it twice, and there were no surprises, please pay attention to this sentence in the original text of the circular:

The two sides focused on the in-depth exchange of views on issues such as the export of lithography machines to China and the strengthening of cooperation in the semiconductor industry.

Keyword: opinion.

This means that no agreement or contract has been signed.

In particular, Van Lüwen said:

The Dutch export control is not aimed at any country, and the decisions made are based on independent evaluation, and the impact on the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain is minimized under the premise of safety and control.

Translation: the high-end ones won't sell you, the ones restricted in the United States won't sell you, and the low-end ones that don't have restrictions can be sold......

Although the press release has been written very euphemistically, it can be seen between the lines that this is said - very polite.

After all, even the fact that the phrase "constructive and effective" is not used is enough to show the seriousness of the problem.

The scenario may be that our side keeps increasing the price, 5, 10, 20..... 100 yuan, "I see that you are toasting and not eating, eating and punishing wine." ”

Don't raise your head over there, "Don't sell, don't sell, don't sell!"

Based on this, the chip is expected to be shattered, which may be good for domestic substitution in the short term.

But in the long run, who knows?

Coincidentally, SMIC released its annual report, with a 50% drop in performance, and the company's net profit was only $903 million, which was directly cut in half.

From this perspective, we will find:

3000 points may not be a defense war, but it is most likely a tug-of-war.

Although more than 4,500 stocks rose today, small caps, growth, and themes have been repaired.

The panic has also been effectively alleviated.

However, the decline in the end of the market reflects the lack of counteroffensive strength, and also illustrates:

Emotions only enter the chaotic cycle from the ebb tide, not the euphoria.

At this stage, be cautious to chase high and play boards!

epilogue

I hope that the capital market will have less grand narrative and more warmth.

Don't move the big chess or something, it's really tired, and in the short term, this will be bad for the market.

Why don't you care more about Lao Baixing's vegetable basket, milk powder cans, and waist bags?

Nobuo Ikeda opens "The Lost Twenty Years" with a very good quote:

This place has everything, really all kinds of things.

However, there is no hope.

After going through the low tide again and again, I hope we have found the best direction.

Or, being able to avoid the worst possible outcome.

Finally, everyone has the conditions to join my "circle" as much as possible, first-hand information, real operation, you can't buy a loss, you can't be fooled.

Every day, let the compound interest roll.