Observe | Germany's 23-man squad for the European Championship is on the horizon, and there are only three or four question marks left

Which players will be selected in the squad for the European Championships?

After two friendly matches with successful results and largely satisfactory content, the German team, which has been tossing and turning for more than a year, seems to be ready for the European Championship on home soil in less than three months. Nagelsmann, who has only been in charge for half a year, has also made it clear that the vast majority of the 26 players selected this time will remain in the 23-man squad for the European Championships, "We will not change 10 or five players in the summer anyway, that's for sure. If no one is hurt, maybe one or two will be replaced. So, which players will end up in the squad for the European Championships?

Goalkeepers (3): Neuer, Ter Stegen, Leno (Bowman)

First of all, the starting 11 for France and the Netherlands are a sure selection (excluding surprises such as injuries): Ter Stegen, Kimmich, Rudiger, Jonathan Tower, Mitterstedt, Andrich, Kroos, Musiala, Gundogan, Wirtz and Havertz. Although former captain Manuel Neuer withdrew due to injury after his return, Nagelsmann has made it clear that this will not change his decision to appoint Neuer as a goalkeeper at the European Championships. Therefore, Neuer, after replacing Ter Stegen, is the most likely main line-up in the current situation.

After Neuer and Ter Stegen, Leno, Bowman and Trapp, who was unqualified this time (due to a decline in form), will compete for the three-way spot. During Loew's tenure, Leno and Trapp took turns in the three-man squad, with Leno in the 23-man squad for Euro 2016 and Trapp in the squad for the 2018 World Cup. At the last European Championship, due to Ter Stegen's injury, Leno and Trapp were selected together. At the World Cup in Qatar, Flick chose Trapp. Trapp's form has indeed dropped significantly this season, while Leno and Bowman are in a similar situation, having been tested in a mid-table team with average defensive performance. Compared to Bowman, who has not played since his first selection for the national team in September 2020, Leno, who joined the team in 2015 and has made nine appearances, clearly has a certain advantage.

Defenders (7): Kimmich, Rudiger, Jonathan Tower, Mittelstedt, Henriquez, Anton, Hummels (Koch)

Among the defenders, Henriques, who can play on both the left and right, has a clear advantage and can lock in a spot, and he still has a chance to challenge the attacking and defensive newcomer Mittelstedt in the competition for the main left-back.

If Nagelsmann had a substitute for each position, he would need at least two centre-backs and a full-back. In this squad, Na Shuai chose Robin Koch and Anton in two substitute central defender positions, one is a fringe man who has temporarily left the national team since the last European Championship, and the other is a newcomer, neither of whom has any major tournament experience. And Anton only played a few minutes in the 89th minute against France in place of Kroos at the back of the line, while Koch was on the bench in both games. It would be risky to rely on Koch or Anton to be appointed at the Euros, especially if Rudiger and Jonathan Ta have any weaknesses in the Euros, not to mention that Tata has never played in the World Cup or the Euros.

So in my opinion, Nagelsmann will eventually have to bring an experienced spare tyre, and Hummels, who has become accustomed to this role at Borussia Dortmund, is the most suitable candidate, while Koch and Anton can choose one or the other, or end up with five centre-backs, and only one Henriquez on the full-back bench, after all, Anton can also play at right-back. Raum's eventual selection as a substitute left-back will largely depend on whether the boss will bring in an extra man at centre-back. And even with only 4 central defenders, Raum, who can only play left-back in 4231, may not be able to squeeze into the list, after all, Havertz is recognized as a good left-back under special circumstances, that is, there are already "2.5" left-backs, there is no need to continue to pile people in this position, and Gosens, who only adapts to the three-center-back system, is no longer playing.

Midfielders (5): Kroos, Andrich, Gundogan, Gross, Goretzka

The double back is behind Kroos and Andrich, Pascal Gross is the inevitable third choice, Gundogan can also be withdrawn, plus Kimmich, Anton and Koch can all play in the No. 6 position, in fact, it is completely enough, this time the first selection but due to tonsil inflammation can not report to the rookie Alexander Pavlovich, and another Bayern midfielder Goretzka to catch the last train is not easy. Goretzka's situation is very peculiar, he is not as form-critical as many of the failed Borussia Dortmund players, and he also has a relatively important position in the national team, largely because the coach needs a sapper who is willing to be a green leaf to stand by Kroos and Gundogan in order to achieve a better tactical and role balance in the team.

At the World Cup in Qatar, Flick's big failure was hesitating on the issue of Gundogan, Kimmich and Goretzka. In the first battle against Japan, Flick chose Kimmich and Gundogan after a battle of ideas (this is also mentioned in the documentary "All or Nothing"). As a result, in the best of the best, he inexplicably replaced Gundogan, who opened the scoring from the penalty spot, with Goretzka in the 67th minute, which directly caused the team to lose control in the final half hour and finally suffered a tragic reversal. This substitution was obviously made in the eyes of the team and the outside world to appease Goretzka, and it was completely self-defeating.

Then against Spain, Flick simply started with three men, pushing Gundogan to the number 10 position. But Gundogan played badly and replacing him with Leroy Sane in the 70th minute was a big turning point. In the final round against Costa Rica, Flick suddenly put Kimmich at right-back, leaving Gundogan and Goretzka in a double midfield. As a result, Flick denied himself after half-time, replacing Goretzka with right-back Klostermann, and returning Kimmich to the number 6 position. After 10 minutes in the second half, Gundogan was also removed and brought on Phil Kruger.

In light of this, it is likely that Nagelsmann will avoid a repeat of the mistakes of the past and abandon Goretzka. It is not difficult to see from the last two games that the boss has solved the problem of Kroos, Gundogan and Kimmich coexisting well. He cleverly separated the three bigwigs so that they didn't fight for possession: Kroos played the ball in the middle of the midfield and on the left, Gundogan linked up the midfield and Kimmich on the right. Andrich [Gross] is in charge of a simple transition in this "ball triangle", a balance that Nagelsmann would love and would not be wise to break it again.

In fact, Goretzka is good at the type without the ball, and his technical characteristics can also meet the requirements of the coach, and his big performances so far in his career are well-known, and he can also play the power of the back shot at critical moments (he was the substitute for Hungary in the final round of the last European Championship group stage), but there has been no phone call between him and Gundogan, and the effect of the two pairing in the back two in the first game against Austria in November last year is also terrible. Personally, I'd like to keep bringing Goretzka, but only if he accepts a clear role as a substitute and doesn't complain about sitting on the bench and affect the atmosphere in the dressing room.

In addition, Goretzka's recent position at Bayern Munich is basically the same as Kroos' position in the two games since returning to the national team, that is, when the backfield is played, he will retreat to the defensive line and become a left central defender. From this point of view, it still makes a lot of sense to bring Goretzka, and it makes a lot more sense than to bring Pavlovich, who is good at handling the ball. If only four No.6 or No.8 players are brought in at the end, the extra places will be reserved for the fifth centre-back or the substitute left-back.

Up front (8): Musiala, Wirtz, Havertz, Sane, Phil Kruger, Muller, Ferich, Wendav (Gnabry)

There are a lot of candidates in the frontcourt. Leroy Sane, who has been dismissed from the squad due to suspension, has been the subject of much discussion recently, but it is clear from the manager's special invitation to let him feel the atmosphere in the team on Tuesday, and the Bayern Munich great, who has been in a slump after the winter break, will still be selected. Phil Kruger, despite being a substitute in the last two games, is definitely the strongest No. 9 in the current team, the veteran Muller can play as a spare tire in the No. 9 position, or play in his best shadow striker or right midfield position (both of which have been eye-catching after coming off the bench), and Fericht is the only classic winger in the team and is an important back-up for the team, and these three are inevitable selections. Jonas Hoffman and Brandt are clearly behind Wirtz, Musiala, Havertz, Leroy Sane, Muller and Ferich, and unless there are some surprises in the first few cases, it will be difficult for them to catch the last train.

The final spot, which should be reserved for a no.9 player, should be contested between Kevin Behrens, Dukesch, Wenduff and Maximilian Beyer, who have been selected for the first time in the last three international breaks. And according to Nashuai, whoever is in good form in the sprint stage of the season will have the best chance. Judging from the current development trend, Wenduff, who plays for Stuttgart, the third place in the Bundesliga, and leads the Bundesliga homegrown scorer list with 14 goals, has a clear advantage. Wendaf also has the advantage of being able to play in multiple positions, either as a shadow striker, winger or as a number 10. It's very important for a tournament to bring such an all-rounder.

Will Gnabry, who has recently returned and scored in consecutive Bundesliga games, still have a chance of overtaking at the final corner if he can make a big splash in the next Champions League and keep his scoring momentum going in the Bundesliga. After all, compared to a few opponents who have "never seen the world", Gnabry's experience in both the World Cup and the European Championship (including the Olympics), as well as the Champions League experience (and big performances) are there.

Text: Huang Sijun

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