Is the "April Decision" circulating in A-shares credible? Where to find the main line after the "spring restlessness"?

A-shares are known as the "April decision", which refers to the fact that the market performance and style characteristics around April often determine the overall direction of the market throughout the year. Industries that are generally considered to have a gratifying rally around April often have a greater chance of becoming the main line of the year, and investors can make a preliminary judgment on the annual investment logic based on this.

In 2020, the "GEM" market of "Bull Crown Global" began to strengthen in April of that year;

In 2021, after falling in March, the "Ning Index" turned upward in April, driving the new energy sector all the way to the high.

In 2022, the "cyclical sector" also rose sharply around April of that year under the catalyst of external events;

In '08, '11, '18 and the last 23 years, when the fundamentals or policies were weak, the market turned down after April

Is the "April Decision" a metaphysical legend circulated by Big A? Or is it a market law with a certain basis? In the context of the current high-speed market rotation, where to look for the main line of investment?

Metaphysics or the Calendar Effect?

Tianfeng Securities analyzes the market trend over the years, and divides the year into three investment stages according to the logical difference of stock market transactions. Its analysis believes that the more "chaotic" market in the first quarter ended in the earnings season in April, when the market's fundamental pricing is most effective, and in addition, the reference value of the first quarterly report can be extended to May-August, which is an important focus direction in the next stage. Trading in the second and third quarters is the most dependent on "fundamentals", and stock trading reflects the current prosperity.

Source: Tianfeng Securities

The main reason why the market went from chaotic to clear in April is because:

01

Previously, it was a "vacuum period" for financial results and macro data

 At this time, the market is unclear about the policy situation, industry trends and industry hotspots throughout the year. Listed companies often release quarterly reports in January, superimposed at the beginning of the year with a high amount of credit, the two sessions held one after another, in the stage of relatively friendly liquidity and policy, frequent hot spots, high-speed rotation of the industry has become the market characteristics of this stage, the theme sector and the growth sector are usually more prominent, but based on the expected market transactions are difficult to say the main line is clear.

02

The economy set the tone in April

With the confirmation of the monetary and fiscal policies for the whole year at the "Two Sessions" in March, and the tone for the economic work of the year at the Politburo meeting in April, if there are industries with particularly biased policies, they may have more room for profit that year.

03

The market may return to performance-driven

Since April, the quarterly reports of listed companies have been released one after another, and the market investment aesthetics may return to the mode of performance-driven, fundamental aesthetics, and the pursuit of prosperity.

The research of Industrial Securities also shows that the second quarter is the most effective month for economic investment, and April is the month with the strongest explanatory effect on stock price performance in the whole year.

Source: Industrial Securities

Although the "April decision" has a certain regularity, it is not an iron law of the market, but it is also beneficial as a perspective for understanding market trends.

"A few bowls of noodles" that affect the "April decision"

Now that we have analyzed the reasons for the emergence of the "April Decision", what is the current situation of the various factors that affect the decision?

Fundamentals: Some of the data are bright and need to be verified in a quarterly report

The supply-side manufacturing industry has recovered significantly. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 7.0%, and the trend of industrial added value and manufacturing investment was relatively strong.

Consumption growth rebounded, and service consumption performed well. From January to February, the total amount of social zero increased by 5.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 5.4%;

Exports strengthened more than expected. From January to February, the total export volume denominated in US dollars increased by 7.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.3%, the highest point since April 23, and the export performance was strong.

The prosperity of the manufacturing industry continues to improve. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9 in February, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and was in the expansion range for four consecutive months for the first time since the second half of 2021.

The latest economic data shows that the macro economy has changed in many aspects, and the overall economic data exceeded expectations and the market structural expectations have picked up, but the mixed news is that the real estate-related data is still weak, and the current economic situation remains to be fully verified in mid-April.

Policy: Continue to care for the market

Recently, a series of policies have been intensively introduced, which has significantly boosted market confidence. At the macro level, recent policies have been gradually implemented, among which large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods have become policy highlights, while at the same time, frequent reform policies at the capital market level have been issued to promote the healthy development of the market. (Source: "Brokerage China")

Funding: Liquidity is improving, but it will take time to switch to an incremental environment

Since the end of January, northbound funds have changed from last year's six-month net selling state to inflows, and the net inflow of northbound funds has accelerated significantly after the Spring Festival.

The activity of capital trading in A-shares has also increased significantly. As of March 22, the average turnover on Sunday continued to rise to 1.1 trillion yuan, and the balance of the two financial institutions rose slightly to 1,546.111 billion yuan, rebounding for the fifth consecutive week.

From the perspective of overseas liquidity, even if the Fed does not enter the channel of interest rate cuts in the short term, it will not hinder the performance of A-shares. When the interest rate cut is realized during the year, it will be conducive to the implementation of domestic monetary policy and more conducive to attracting the enthusiasm of northbound capital allocation.

Foreign capital and active funds are gradually returning, but the market has recently entered a "rest period" of rebound, and the key to the follow-up trend may lie in the improvement of economic expectations and the entry of incremental funds, and it will take time for the capital to change from a stock market to an incremental market.

On the whole, the follow-up trend of the big A depends on the "handover" of the quarterly reports of each company, and the high-level meeting in April may become an important window for macro policy adjustment.

After the deep V, what do you think about the A-share market?

The first quarter is coming to an end, and the "deep V" market since the beginning of the year is basically in line with the structural characteristics of the over-falling rebound. In addition, this year's market continued the characteristics of last year's industry rotation, after the general rise in the early stage, the market rotation speed has accelerated significantly, and the low-level industries have mainly made up for the rise, the high-dividend sector with outstanding performance in the early stage has weakened significantly, and the technology growth sector that once led the rise has also turned into shock. A large number of hot industries rotate on a daily basis, and the money-making effect is significantly weakened.

Although the main line is difficult to understand, before discussing the subsequent market trend, it is more important to clarify the coordinates of our current position.

Valuations are still cheap

After a round of rally in February, the valuations of the main broad-based indices of A-shares have been repaired, but most of them are in the "undervalued" area of 30% or less, that is, they are still at a level that is more cost-effective and worth layout.

Source: Wind, as of 2024.3.27. Note: If the index is less than 5 years/10 years since the release date, all historical data will be used, and the historical data of the index is not indicative of the future

The high-odds market environment has not changed

After three years of shock adjustment, A-shares may be at a turning point in the long cycle. From the perspective of chip clearing, the current downward risk or potential selling pressure of the entire market has become smaller. From the perspective of valuation regression forecast, our full-year forecast is still expansion, and the current A-share market investment opportunities are more expensive.

From the over-falling rebound to the sideways now, in view of how to interpret the market outlook, many brokerages believe that the market has entered a period of shock consolidation, and the investment in the market outlook is waiting for the full verification in April——

CICC: The market maintained a volatile upward trend near the early trading intensive area, investors' risk appetite continued to recover, and structural opportunities in the market continued to emerge. The full disclosure of economic data in the next 1-2 months may provide further information. The TMT sector, which has been adjusted a lot since the beginning of the year and is driven by the expectation of scientific and technological progress in the near future and the new quality productivity-related policies, is still expected to perform relatively, the Internet, computer and electronics sectors are expected to continue to be active, and the equipment renewal and consumer goods related sectors may have phased opportunities.

Huatai Securities: The short-term market may be volatile, the low-performance sector will make up for the rise, the new theme rotation or the main clues of the market in the month, and the medium-term perspective will be combined with the boom mining in the "deep value" industry in the quasi-dividend sinking and "deep value-based" industries, and the theme will focus on the incremental direction of the two sessions.

Guotai Junan Securities: After the two sessions are behind the policy expectations, investors will welcome the "April decision" and face the verification of economic data and corporate performance. Focus on sectors with improved investment logic and relatively low valuations.

The ups and downs of the economic cycle need to be precipitated and verified by time, and although the "April Decision" is not a rigorous investment methodology, it can also provide us with an additional perspective to analyze the market. Internal and external favorable factors are gradually gathering, and the importance of the macro level will increase in the future, but the logic of the whole year will not change, and we may as well wait for the down-to-earth judgment in April.

Risk Warning

The views expressed in this material are for informational purposes only and are not intended as any legal documents, and all information or opinions expressed in the materials do not constitute final operational advice on investment, legal, accounting or taxation, and we do not make any warranties for the final operational advice regarding the content of the materials. Under no circumstances shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any content in this material. The above content does not constitute a recommendation of individual stocks. The past performance of the Fund and its net worth are not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the Fund Manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the Fund. The Manager does not guarantee profitability and does not guarantee a minimum return. Investors should fully understand the difference between regular and fixed investment of funds and savings methods such as small deposits and withdrawals. Regular investment is a simple and easy way to guide investors to make long-term investments and average investment costs. However, regular investment does not avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, does not guarantee investors to obtain returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method to replace savings. The market is risky, and you should be cautious when entering the market.

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