The Chinese Foreign Ministry's phone call went directly to Manila, and the Chinese vice foreign minister said four words to the Philippine side on the spot, "Pull back from the precipice", and the Marcos Jr. government will no longer recognize the seriousness of the problem, and I am afraid that it will have to pay a heavy price.
In response to the recent provocative actions of the Philippines on Ren'ai Jiao and Thitu Island, after the China Coast Guard and the Chinese Ministry of National Defense issued warnings, the Chinese vice foreign minister made a direct call to the Philippine Ministry of Foreign Affairs, asking the Philippines to "pull back from the precipice". In the context of China's diplomacy, as soon as these four words are spoken, it generally means that the countdown to the "showdown" has begun. Judging from the official report, this time Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong took the initiative to call Philippine Deputy Foreign Minister Lazaro, apparently with the authorization of the Chinese government to issue a similar "ultimatum" warning to the Philippine side. If the Marcos Jr. administration does not repent and stubbornly insists on provoking China in the South China Sea, then China should not be blamed for its "ruthlessness" at that time. Judging from the successive warnings issued by China's Ministry of National Defense and Foreign Affairs, China is probably prepared for the worst against conflict.
(The handling of the Philippine construction material carrier that forcibly intruded into the waters of Ren'ai Jiao is professional)
(The tragic scene of the Philippine construction materials carrier being "taken care of" by the Chinese coast guard water cannon)
Let's take a look at the recent warnings issued by various departments of the Chinese government to the Philippine side: a spokesperson for the China Coast Guard recently said that the Philippines has reneged on its promise only 18 days after the last supply and sent ships to trespass into the waters adjacent to China's Ren'ai Jiao again, in an attempt to carry out abnormal transportation and replenishment to illegal "beached" warships, take the opportunity to transport construction materials, provoke and cause trouble, and the actions taken by the Chinese Coast Guard in accordance with laws and regulations are completely reasonable, legal, standardized and professional.
On the same day, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense pointed out that we are telling the Philippine side to stop making any remarks that may lead to the intensification of contradictions and escalation of the situation, and to stop all infringements and provocations, and if the Philippine side repeatedly challenges China's bottom line, China will continue to take resolute and resolute measures to firmly safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong said this during the phone call, saying that the Chinese side once again asks the Philippine side to earnestly attach importance to China's concerns, pull back from the precipice, return to the right track of properly handling differences with China through negotiation and consultation as soon as possible, and work with China to safeguard the overall situation of bilateral relations and peace and stability in the South China Sea.
(With the mainland's island bases in the South China Sea, neither the Philippines nor the United States can take advantage of any more)
If the Philippine side is any longer in mind, the Chinese government's multi-departmental and intensive voice was last seen during the Doklam confrontation between China and India. Judging from the PLA's deployment to the Sino-Indian border area at that time, if the Indian army insists on not withdrawing from mainland territory, what awaits them will be a devastating blow from the PLA. And this time, whether the Philippines still has the courage to continue to hold on depends not only on how the Marcos Jr. government makes decisions, but also on how the United States manipulates behind the scenes.
However, this time, we do not need to deploy troops like Doklam did, because the Chinese coast guard and the Chinese navy have absolute superiority over the Philippines in the South China Sea, and the several bases formed by the mainland in the South China Sea have become a strong fortress for our control of the South China Sea. From a global strategic point of view, the United States does not currently have the strength and courage to engage in a direct conflict with China in the Asia-Pacific region, so it will not directly confront China in the South China Sea, but will only "beat the Philippines" through joint exercises and other means, allowing them to act as cannon fodder for great power competition. Therefore, if the Philippines wants to fight again, its tragic fate is already doomed.
(Dynamic map of major U.S. ships released by the U.S. Naval Institute News Network on March 25)
Judging from the latest news, the United States is still continuing to stoke the fire in the South China Sea, and will gather "allies" such as France, Japan, and Australia in early April to hold a "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise with the Philippines in the South China Sea, forcing the Marcos Jr. government not to retreat. Philippine media released information in January this year claiming that the "Shoulder to Shoulder 2024" joint exercise was originally scheduled to be held in the Batanes Islands between the Philippines and Taiwan, and the Philippines "flattered" the United States for this reason, offering to expand the military dock in the Batanes Islands for US warships to dock, but a few days ago the US military has officially stated that it will not use the base in the Batanes Islands.
Therefore, I am afraid that the content of this year's "shoulder-to-shoulder" military exercise will change. The USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier battle group has left Singapore's Changi military port and returned to the South China Sea, and it is not ruled out that it will participate in this "shoulder-to-shoulder" exercise, and the United States may also use this exercise to train the Philippine Coast Guard so that they can "more powerfully" confront the Chinese coast guard. Judging from the experience of Sino-US confrontation in the past, as long as our side puts on a tough enough posture, the US military will not dare to make any rash moves in the South China Sea, and this time will be no exception.
It can be seen from Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong's remarks to the Philippine Vice Foreign Minister that China's patience is about to be exhausted by the Philippine side's repeated provocations. The warning issued by the Chinese side to the Philippine side through diplomatic channels is actually a final diplomatic effort in the hope that the issue can be resolved through dialogue and consultation. This fully demonstrates China's responsibility as a responsible major country. Behind this is the backing of strong national defense capabilities, especially China's control network in the South China Sea, which has built up on its bases on islands and reefs. It is precisely because of the existence of such a large net that any adventure in the Philippines will be in vain. Because the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the China Coast Guard can respond to emergencies in any part of the South China Sea in a timely manner and deploy sufficient troops to deal with them, even if the US military comes to the South China Sea now, it will not take any advantage.