Affected by multiple factors, the tractor market has experienced great fluctuations in recent years. In particular, the switch between China V and China VI has greatly overdrawn the market demand, coupled with the recurrence of the epidemic for three years, resulting in a continuous decline in the tractor market from 2022. With the recovery of the domestic economic situation in 2023, the overall sales volume of the tractor market has also shown a warming trend, with a year-on-year increase of 58%. So, what are the new characteristics of the tractor market?
According to the data of the Wuhan Inspection Center of the China Automotive Center, the total sales volume of tractors in 2023 will be 323,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 58%. From the perspective of monthly sales trends, March has been the peak of sales in each of the past four years, while January at the beginning of the year and December at the end of the year are the troughs of sales. Different from the sales trend of "high before and low after" in 2020 and 2021, the domestic tractor market as a whole will show an "M" shaped trend in 2023: sales in January, July and December will show a sluggish trend, and enter two peaks in March and September. From August to October, it changed the declining trend that had continued to decline in previous years and achieved contrarian growth.
In terms of year-on-year growth, sales volume in all months of 2023 have achieved positive growth due to the bleak market in 2022. The largest increases occurred in February and October, with year-on-year growth of a staggering 120%. Sales in June and December increased by only 2% year-on-year, basically unchanged from the previous year.
Although there are obvious signs of recovery in the tractor market in 2023, it has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and there is still a lot of room for growth. With the continuous recovery of economic fundamentals, the demand for the elimination and renewal of old vehicles of China IV and below continues to be released, the electrification process of heavy trucks continues to advance, and the demand for gasoline vehicles and ventilation vehicles continues to grow, we expect the domestic tractor market to further recover in 2024, with sales reaching 380,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 18%.
From the perspective of enterprises, the market pattern tends to be stable, and the market share of CR1, CR5 and CR10 enterprises has not changed much. At the same time, the market concentration of leading enterprises is extremely high, with CR5 sales accounting for nearly 90%, and the oligopoly competition pattern of the tractor market has been established.
In 2023, the market competitiveness of the leading enterprises in the tractor market will continue to be consolidated, and related companies will form three major echelons, and there is an obvious fault line in the sales of different echelons, specifically: the first echelon is FAW Jiefang, which has won the championship with a sales volume of nearly 10w vehicles, and a market share of nearly 1/3. The second echelon is China National Heavy Duty Truck, Dongfeng Motor, Shaanxi Automobile Group and Beiqi Foton, the sales of these four companies are about 5W, with a market share of about 15%. The third echelon includes Dayun Automobile, SAIC Hongyan, Xuzhou XCMG, Valin Automobile, Sany Automobile, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck, JAC Automobile, etc., with sales of less than 1W.
The top 10 companies in the tractor market in 2023 are FAW Jiefang, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Dongfeng Group, Shaanxi Automobile Group, Beiqi Foton, Dayun Automobile, SAIC Hongyan, Xuzhou XCMG, Anhui Valin and Sany Automobile. Among them, Jiefang's sales volume increased by 70% year-on-year, and the market share continued to increase, and the gap with other companies further widened. Shaanxi Automobile has developed rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 83%, becoming the largest sales growth enterprise in the top 10 in the industry. With the exception of Anhui Valin, the CR10 has achieved positive growth.
Although the industry signs of recovery are obvious, the performance of each company is different, among which Jiefang, Shaanxi Automobile, Universiade, and XCMG have increased more than the market market, and the sales volume and market share of CR10 companies in 2023 are as follows:
From the perspective of regional market distribution, more than 70% of domestic tractor sales in 2023 will be concentrated in northern provinces, of which Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan provinces will account for 50% of the country's sales. Among them, Hebei sold 52,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%, and continued to rank first in the country. Thanks to the sharp increase in sales of gas vehicles, the Shanxi market increased by 152% year-on-year, with a total annual sales of 51,000 units, surpassing Shandong to rank second. Shandong sold 35,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, but the growth rate was lower than the national average. The Henan market has sprung up, with sales of 26,000 units, a significant increase of 120% year-on-year, surpassing Jiangsu and Xinjiang and ranking fourth.
The top 10 cities in terms of tractor sales in 2023 are Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Tangshan, Jinzhong, Handan, Xingtai, Yuncheng, Liaocheng, Jining and Yinchuan. Among them, Shijiazhuang City continued to top the list with a sales volume of 1.3w vehicles, and the sales volume of Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan and Tangshan exceeded 10,000 vehicles. Among the top 10 cities in terms of sales, the cities with a year-on-year increase of more than 100% in sales are Taiyuan, Jinzhong, Yuncheng and Yinchuan. Among them, Taiyuan City added 7,673 vehicles, an increase of 200%, and the market development space is broad. Yinchuan sold a total of 5,423 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 346%, becoming the city with the largest increase last year.
High horsepower has always been a hot spot in the development of the tractor market in recent years, and the average horsepower of tractors will rise from 475 to 498 in 2023, and the trend of horsepower upgrade continues to accelerate. From the perspective of power structure, 450-500 horsepower is still the main force of the tractor market, accounting for nearly half. However, compared with last year, the sales of models with less than 450 horsepower declined significantly, down 58.4% year-on-year, and the market share fell by 18 percentage points. 500~550 horsepower has become the largest growth range, a significant increase of 235% year-on-year, and the market share has increased by 16 percentage points to 31.4%, and it is expected that by 2025, the power range will become the main competition range in the industry, and the market share will exceed 50%. Models with 550 horsepower and above also performed well, with a total of 42,000 units sold throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 89.8%, and a market share of 13.3%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared with last year.
Judging from the data, the maximum horsepower of the tractor market has been upgraded from 660 to 680, and a total of four companies have produced Sinotruk, Shaanxi Automobile, Jiefang, and BAIC, with a total sales of nearly 800 units.