The era of "zero spicy moves" has come! Hong Kong has made a big move to "save the city."
Hong Kong, where every inch of land is at a premium, has also begun to vigorously "rescue the market".
On February 28, the Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government, Paul Chan, delivered the 2024-2025 Budget at the Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), in which he said that the HKSAR Government has decided to remove all residential property demand management measures (hereinafter referred to as "the withdrawal") with immediate effect, that is, all residential property transactions will no longer be subject to Special Stamp Duty, Buyer's Stamp Duty and New Residential Stamp Duty from today.
Image source: Centaline Real Estate
After a lapse of 14 years, Hong Kong's property market has entered the era of "zero spicy moves" for the first time. How strong is this policy?
A case can tell you.
Taking the 7-storey top-floor connected mansion in 2 buildings outside Kowloon Tiwai as an example, the property price is 636 million yuan, and the stamp duty rate of 15% after the "spicy reduction" is calculated, the stamp duty amount that buyers need to pay is 95.4 million yuan, and the stamp duty rate after the "spicy removal" is 4.25%, corresponding to an amount of 27.03 million yuan, and a reduction of 68.37 million yuan in taxes and fees.
Image source: Centaline Real Estate
A real estate agent familiar with the Hong Kong market told the "International Financial News" reporter that after the "withdrawal", the tax scale for permanent residence and non-permanent home buyers in Hong Kong is the same, so there is no difference in applying for a loan to buy a house, which is good for both.
In the view of Huang Lichong, President of Huisheng International Capital, although the current policy adjustment may bring some vitality to Hong Kong's real estate market, the long-term trend is that more structural reforms and adjustments are needed, and Hong Kong's future not only depends on short-term policy stimulus, but also needs to find a new positioning and development direction in the global economic environment.
"In the past, Hong Kong has played a unique role in facilitating the flow of international capital into China, trade and international financial asset management, and in the future, it also needs to explore new growth points to adapt to the changes in the international investment environment and the new needs of domestic and international economic development. He said.
(Photo by Wu Dian)
01
The era of "zero spicy moves".
According to public information, the three property market stamp duties that have been fully abolished are commonly known as "spicy moves", which were successively introduced in 2010 in order to curb the trend of speculation, and have been implemented for many years.
Specifically, Hong Kong permanent residents need to pay a maximum of 4.25% for the first home purchase, and then the stamp duty for the second and third sets is 15%, which is also the buyer's stamp duty, and the buyer's stamp duty and the new residential stamp duty for non-permanent residents need to pay 15% each, a total of 30%.
In addition, in order to crack down on "speculators", Hong Kong also has a special stamp duty, that is, buyers are required to pay 20% of the property price for reselling within 6 months of purchase, 15% for reselling for more than 6 months but within 12 months, and 10% for reselling for more than 12 months but within 36 months.
In other words, for buyers, buying a house in Hong Kong is subject to a stamp duty of up to 30%. If you buy a property worth HK$10 million, the stamp duty will reach HK$3 million.
The changes are taking place in 2023. On 25 October of that year, the Hong Kong Government announced adjustments to the demand management measures for residential properties, including shortening the applicable period of Special Stamp Duty (SSD) from three years to two years, halving the rates of Buyer's Stamp Duty (BSD) and Stamp Duty ("SHD") for new residential properties, and implementing a "first-for-second-levy" arrangement for foreign talents to purchase property rights, which will greatly reduce the cost of entry into the market for buyers.
However, the policy has limited stimulus for the property market, and after the introduction of the relaxation policy, the Hong Kong market has generally seen the expectation of "withdrawing the spicy", resulting in a strong wait-and-see mood and a continuous decline in transaction volume.
On January 29 this year, the Rating and Valuation Department of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region announced the price index of second-hand private residential properties in December 2023, which fell by about 1.39% month-on-month from November, and has fallen to a new low since February 2017, with a cumulative decline of 20.77% in 2022 and 2023.
Other data shows that in 2023, Hong Kong's property market will fall into a deep downturn, with the overall number of property sale and purchase agreements registered falling to the lowest point since 1991 at only 58,023 cases, while second-hand residential sales have also hit a 28-year low. In terms of land transfers, a number of residential land tenders failed last year, and the Government suspended the launch of residential land tenders for rare land in the last quarter of the 2023/24 financial year ending at the end of March.
Against this backdrop, it is difficult to be optimistic about the trend of Hong Kong's real estate market in 2024.
UBS once mentioned in a report that Hong Kong housing prices are expected to fall by another 10% in 2024, and the downside risks are mainly due to the macro environment and the British government's BNO policy after 2025, "The British government will review the BNO immigration policy in 2025, and if it is cancelled, it may cause another wave of immigration."
After carefully considering the overall situation of the current situation, the Hong Kong government has decided to further withdraw all "spicy measures" in the property market, Chan Mo-po said, "We believe that under the current economic and market conditions, the relevant measures are no longer necessary".
"Since October last year, the 'spicy reduction' has little effect, which is the fundamental reason for Hong Kong's complete 'spicy' this time. Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, told reporters.
Affected by the policy, a number of domestic real estate stocks rose in the afternoon, as of the close, Shangkun Real Estate shares rose 33.33%, Huijing Holdings rose more than 14%, Henderson Land, Rongxin China, New World Development, Road King, etc. all rose to varying degrees.
2
They say so
For the "withdrawal of spicy", a consensus in the industry is that this move will stimulate the recovery of the Hong Kong property market to a certain extent, but it remains to be seen whether the positive sentiment can continue and whether it can completely drive the property market out of the upward trend.
Tang Shuxian, head of the Hong Kong research department of Cushman & Wakefield, told the International Finance News in an interview that after the lifting of all residential property demand management measures, it is believed that the property market will be adjusted in an orderly manner and develop in a healthy direction.
He bluntly said that there are three main factors plaguing the property market at present, namely high interest rates, "spicy moves", and the economic and stock market recession. As for the trend of property prices, if the Federal Reserve can start to cut interest rates within the year, it will help property prices to stabilize, and it is expected that property prices are expected to recover from their current lows in the second half of the year.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, pointed out that in the context of the downward trend of the property market, the significance of "spicy moves" is weakening. For the whole year of 2023 alone, about 2,811 transactions were recorded in the three major spicy taxes, setting a new low since the collection of the three residential spicy taxes in 2014, while the revenue from the spicy taxes last year was about HK$5.989 billion, which was less than HK$6 billion for two consecutive years.
He bluntly said that Hong Kong is a free port, relying on a completely free competitive environment, to attract domestic and foreign capital to start a business, investment, not too dependent on property tax, but the stability of property value is very critical, it will affect the flow of capital and Hong Kong's attractiveness to domestic and foreign capital and investors. Therefore, when the value of property falls to a certain extent, the government will take measures to stabilize the value of the property, thereby stabilizing Hong Kong's attractiveness to global funds.
Huang Lichong also said that the policy adjustment has a certain positive effect on promoting the current downturn in the market environment, and will also bring opportunities for brokerage companies and the improvement of trading volume. However, it believes that the "withdrawal of spicy" may stimulate some of the purchasing power of the market in the short term, especially in the residential property market below HK$10 million, but in the high-end luxury housing market, this measure may have a limited impact, and it is expected that the overall property market will still face adjustment this year, and the decline may be controlled within 5%.
In his view, the challenges facing Hong Kong's real estate market cannot be completely solved in the short term. In recent years, factors such as the outflow of capital and talent, as well as Hong Kong's changing role as a bridge between China and the rest of the world in international finance and trade, have had a profound impact on the real estate market.
Last year, China's foreign direct investment (FDI) fell significantly, reaching an 82% contraction, while US dollar funds invested in renminbi assets also fell sharply by 90% to 95%, these changes largely reflect the adjustment of Hong Kong's status as an important international financial center, "the long-term trend of Hong Kong's real estate market requires more structural reform and adjustment".
Projects under construction in Hong Kong (photo by Sun Wanqiu)
3
What is the impact on the mainland market?
Another key point of market attention is what the Hong Kong property market will be enlightened by the drastic relaxation of restrictions on the mainland property market.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told reporters that after the "withdrawal", the cost of buying houses in Hong Kong has fallen sharply, which will attract some of the mainland's purchasing power to buy property in Hong Kong, and at the same time, as a super first-tier city, Hong Kong's policy adjustment will also have a demonstration impact on Beijing, Shanghai and other first-tier cities, "although they are relaxing, but Hong Kong is 'one size fits all', which has a greater impact on the market, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are all small steps, and the impact is not too big now."
He bluntly said that at present, the supply and demand relationship of the mainland real estate market has undergone major changes, the regional differentiation pattern of the property market is highlighted, the demand for housing in the core first- and second-tier cities is relatively stable, and the demand for housing in more second-tier cities is insufficient.
Since January this year, a number of core cities in the mainland have introduced relaxation policies, such as the relaxation of restrictions on housing purchase by non-Shanghainese singles outside the outer ring of Shanghai, the relaxation of the double restriction policy in Tongzhou, the adjustment of the purchase restriction for non-local household registration in Shenzhen from 5 years to 3 years, and the restriction on the number of years of settlement and the number of years of social security individual income tax payment for Shenzhen households. Combined with the real estate "project white list" and the reduction of the LPR 5-year interest rate to 3.95%, the real estate "bailout" has played a combination punch.
In terms of housing price data, in January, the sales price of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 1.0% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage points narrower than the previous month, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.7%, 0.8%, 1.2% and 1.6% respectively. On the whole, the overall market performance of first-tier cities has stabilized and the decline has narrowed due to the successive policies of Beijing and Shanghai in December last year and January this year to stabilize the property market.
He pointed out that the demand for the property market in 2024, the income and confidence of home buyers will still need some time to recover, and it is still in the process of gradually bottoming out, and the real estate market may have a certain heat in March and April 2024 after a sharp interest rate cut.
Li Yujia said that Hong Kong is a free port, capital, exchange rates, and interest rates are free to fluctuate, and the management of real estate is similar to that of Western countries, which is considered from the perspective of interest rates and taxes, "Hong Kong is completely based on the fluctuations of the property market, whether it is necessary to release new policies."
However, the situation in the mainland is different, and when regulating real estate, it will take into account the aspects of taxation, local finance, land finance, upstream and downstream, etc., and it is unlikely that the tax will be fully withdrawn to stabilize the property market.
On the one hand, the mainland's real estate tax accounts for about 20 percent of the total tax revenue, and the combination of related industrial chains accounts for more than 30 percent, and the local dependence is relatively large, so it is unlikely to be withdrawn; on the other hand, the country wants to bid farewell to real estate dependence and turn to the real economy dominated by domestic demand and technological innovation, and it is unlikely to completely withdraw from real estate taxation, sending a wrong signal to the market; finally, the fundamental reason for the downturn in the mainland property market lies in the reversal of supply and demand and the unsustainability of the old model, not in taxes.
"In the hot period of the property market, even if the tax was very heavy at that time, it could not stop the downward trend of the property market. After the reversal of the relationship between supply and demand in the property market, even if the interest rate falls to a record low, even if the VAT exemption period in hot cities shrinks, it will not stop the property market from declining. Li Yujia emphasized.
Reporter Wu Dian
Edited by Sun Wanqiu
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rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, 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rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;-- weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);-weui-tag-background-red: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, ..) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.., wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: 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#576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, .1)}} @media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media( prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, 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img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}} *{margin:0; padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important; box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important; word-wrap:break-word!important}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}
div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}