The spring breeze of the policy is blowing, and the shareholders are really happy!?
Author | Xie Xiaobai
At 10 o'clock in the morning, before I arrived at the office, the "circle friend" sent me a long list of words of thanks.
It made me feel like I was overpowered, a tingle, accompanied by a fluttering ...... It feels so good to be praised by others?
I took a closer look, and it turned out that the two targets screened out yesterday performed bravely, and both of them showed signs of sealing the board.
I hastened to clarify: luck, luck.
In fact, today's market is very treacherous, continuing the pre-holiday "rebound" trend, in the media overwhelming "optimistic about you!" voice, go very "wow".
In particular, the small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 continued to rebound in a large area after the large-scale pledge liquidation.
But what is more excessive is the "junk stocks" represented by *ST Doushen and *ST Zuojiang rising by more than 10%, and they have also risen sharply.
For example: ST Tiancheng, ST Zhongjia, ST Tongzhou, ST Daji, ST Panda and other nearly 20 shares have a daily limit.
This can only explain one question, and the question of "is there sufficient liquidity?" is it a bit redundant?
Today's market has responded with a very resolute attitude of buying, buying, buying, buying to the state of overflow.
Such a brutal approach, to tell you the truth, I like it very much.
But what is their purpose in doing so?
With such a strong posture, could it be hiding something?
01
If you take a closer look at today's disk, you will find many strange places, such as:
The "Spring Festival consumption data", which was praised by the media, did not drive the recovery of the consumption sector, but opened high and low across the board, all the way down, significantly lower than expected.
This shows that everyone is very clear about the quality of the current consumption data.
That's right, no one knows better than the marketing department if you have money in your pocket.
In addition, the brokerage sector with bull call options fell across the board, which is even more surprising.
In fact, today's intraday core assets once killed a large area of green, especially the collective plunge represented by the real estate sector, which is even more difficult to hide the decadence.
What's even more shocking is that although the market seems to be "majestic", northbound funds (foreign capital) still choose:
Sell.
It should be noted that in the context of the "vest" (Bank of China International), northbound funds also showed net selling, which illustrates:
Foreign investors are very honest in their choice – to reduce their holdings on the upside.
If we look at the bond market, we will have a clearer finding.
In the context of the MLF has not been lowered, Treasury bond futures continue to rise sharply, which shows that the bond market does not hesitate to choose pessimism about potential future yields.
Although today's turnover reached 957.2 billion, it still decreased by 60.2 billion from the previous trading day.
All of the above signs are illustrating a problem:
At present, the so-called "good", including unexpected financial data and unexpected holiday consumption data, is not of practical guiding significance.
So what is the reason why the market is so "wow" today?
02
More from our first-class "combinatorial" control means, to put it bluntly:
The policy spring breeze blows.
In fact, this is only a prelude to the three fires of the new official, and the document issued after today's close is the main one.
The interpretation of the document will not be elaborated on, if you need it, you can go to my "circle" to pick it up.
Let's briefly talk about my opinion, this "document" is all good, but combined with the market process after the "major shareholder pledge liquidation", it is inevitable that there will be a trace of sadness in my heart.
If it is said that after the pledge bursts, the violence after the intervention of local state-owned assets rises, and high-quality private enterprises become state-owned enterprises, it is the result of great joy for shareholders and the local government.
But for the bosses of private enterprises, the price is undoubtedly huge and painful.
Not to mention the loss of the company, the sharp rise after the liquidation has little to do with them.
If you take such an action in the capital market, it is regarded as "if you don't take the initiative, I will help you take the initiative" and "if you are not decent, I will help you be decent".
Then the "document" gives another solution:
You out of the project, out of management, out of a part of the funds, I pull out the funds from above, together bigger and stronger, and create brilliance!
How do you guess what about private enterprises?
With the process of turning private enterprises into state-owned enterprises, we will find that the wheels of the times have begun to turn wildly.
Based on this, is it unexpected that the "small-cap stocks" that have pledged and liquidated their positions have risen in a large area?
In particular, the "small-cap stocks" with good performance have recorded daily limits.
But will this trend continue?
03
In fact, I think the market is very calm.
Although small-cap stocks appear to have fully recovered their liquidity, catalyzed by the "news side".
But on review, we will find that:
The funds are bright and empty, and they are very obvious and restrained.
This is like a student who follows the rules, the school's requirements are quality and quantity, but the family's requirements can be delayed......
In addition, it is worth noting that the market is also observing the next move of the "new village chief", and constantly testing his bottom line and red line, and then deciding whether to do some "naughty" moves.
Specifically:
A lot of ST shares are hyped, and the regulator is inactive?
In addition, there is another interesting phenomenon today:
It is very rare for the coal sector to fly in tandem with the power sector.
Coal stocks continue to rise, but from the world's general transition from traditional energy to new energy, coal stocks first lack long-term investment value.
Secondly, in the past few years, coal has risen too much, and it does not have short-term speculation value.
But today, it began to resonate with the power sector, which can only show one problem: there are funds rushing to run!
This is clearly a bet on money: capacity recovery?
Or: Rising electricity prices are already on the way?
Or: Is the approval of thermal power to build a warehouse already a certainty?
I think the latter two are more probable, but then we will find that:
Why do our stocks always run ahead of the news?
So what's the use of this regulation?
So what role can substitution do?
04
At this point, we will find that all kinds of signals have reflected that this round of rally has entered the end of the round.
This round of rebound that relied on the accumulation of funds, with the gradual withdrawal of funds, is about to fall silent.
I have this judgment: this round of small ticket replenishment is completed, and it should return to the daily blandness.
But the good news is that the LPR will usher in a rate cut tomorrow, although I personally think the probability of exceeding expectations is very small.
But at the very least, this means that the liquidity crisis has been resolved in the short term.
epilogue
After this roller coaster market, we who are still living in the market must have been affected physically and mentally in all directions.
Now it's time for the train to slow down.
What do you say about this?
The greatest function of disaster is that it can destroy our delusions about life.
It's like skimming off the top layer of foam before we can taste the real wheat aroma of beer.
My god Livermore has a very precise description of this.
Indeed, after this battle, I have come to realize more and more:
Only by building a stable and internally supported system can we fight against the chaos and disorder of the world.
Otherwise, how many times a year can the bureau of "the policy spring breeze blows, and the shareholders are really happy"?
Together, we have built a stable investment system
Congratulations, I am Xie Xiaobai, who hopes that your wealth is free.
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