Taiwan experts say that the mainland does not need "military reunification", and Taiwan will take the initiative to return in 2035, is this possible?
At present, cross-strait relations have gradually become tense under the collusion and provocation of "Taiwan independence elements" and "anti-China forces," and as a result, the call for "armed reunification" with Taiwan has become louder and louder.
However, Song Xingzhou, a professor at Tunghai University in Taiwan Province, believes that the mainland does not need military reunification at all, because Taiwan will take the initiative to return in 2035. However, why did Song Xingzhou say this? Can the PLA really sit back and wait for reunification?
It is reported that Song Xingzhou believes that from the perspective of the "long-term cycle theory" of hegemonic transfer, the United States has been hegemonic for about 70 years and is currently in rapid decline, and it is expected that in the decade from 2035 to 2045, China will rise and replace the United States as the world's first power. With this change of identity, the United States will no longer be able to interfere in China's internal affairs, and the "Taiwan issue" will also be easily resolved, and there is no need for the PLA to send troops to the Taiwan Strait.
In addition, Song Xingzhou also said that in the eyes of many people, 2024 will be a moment of sudden change in cross-strait relations, but in fact, it is not, to some extent, the time of Sino-US competition is biased towards China's side. Therefore, Song Xingzhou judged that between 2030 and 2035, the United States' strength in the western Pacific will no longer exist, and it will not be China that will take the initiative to confront the United States, but that the United States will no longer be able to play the role of "world policeman" and will naturally no longer intervene in the Taiwan issue.
The reason why Song Xingzhou came to this conclusion is that the United States is accelerating the process of decline. Taking the situation in the United States as an example, the current US debt crisis is becoming more and more intense, and it is already in a state of "no solution". In addition, the United States is also facing rising military spending, and now that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not ended, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has suddenly broken out, it can be said that the United States is in a state of supporting Ukraine with one hand and Israel with the other.
More importantly, from the perspective of international relations, the global influence of the United States is declining rapidly, because the "American-style democracy and freedom" that the United States admires to the whole world is actually a means for the United States to arbitrarily invade other countries in disregard of international norms.
Second, China's rise is unstoppable. First of all, in terms of economy, China's economy has been growing at a rapid pace since 1978, and according to data, China's total economic output reached 18.3% of the world's total economy in 2021. Therefore, some economists predict that between 2025 and 2030, China will surpass the United States economically.
Second, in the military aspect, the PLA has not only upgraded its military weapons and equipment, but has also focused on improving the informatization of its troops, which has greatly improved its combat effectiveness. Perhaps it is precisely because he saw that the comprehensive national strength of China and the United States has undergone major changes, so Song Xingzhou believes that Taiwan will take the initiative to return to the mainland in 2035. However, is this statement reliable?
In fact, Song Xingzhou's view is a bit too idealistic, although the United States was not capable of preventing China from reunifying Taiwan at that time, the United States will definitely unite its allies to impose sanctions on the mainland, whether it is a public opinion war, a technology war, or a trade war, the United States will do everything. Therefore, the PLA will not be able to sit back and wait for reunification, and even make adequate preparations.
However, to a certain extent, Song Xingzhou's words are half right, that is, Taiwan will definitely return eventually, but it cannot be an active return. In addition, "Taiwan independence elements" and "anti-China forces" will not allow Chinese mainland to reunify Taiwan. So, when will Taiwan return to the embrace of the motherland?
First of all, the mainland will certainly choose the most favorable time for reunification with Taiwan, that is, make full use of the initiative in its hands. Although the more time goes on, the more beneficial it is for Chinese mainland, but it is also necessary to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of Taiwan in time, and if the time is ripe, the PLA can completely unify Taiwan in advance, not necessarily until 2035.
Second, the mainland's policy of making trade concessions to Taiwan has promoted cross-strait economic development and closely linked cross-strait relations, which has also laid the cornerstone for the mainland's reunification with Taiwan in the future. All in all, reunification with Taiwan is a historical necessity, and Chinese mainland has the determination, confidence, and ability to complete reunification.
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