Looking back on 2023, the development of the food supply chain industry is mixed, with opportunities and challenges coexisting, confusion and moving forward. What happened to the industry in 2023 and how will it develop in the future?
In this issue, Xiaowang looks forward to 2024 from the policy, market, and technology levels.
Policy: Continued positive
In 2023, the state has successively issued a number of policies to promote the development of the food supply chain industry, which comprehensively cover the development of food production areas, processing and circulation, infrastructure construction, standard establishment, food safety, food consumption, import and export trade, financial support and other key levels, providing policy guarantees for the healthy and orderly development of the industry.
With the support of a series of national policies to stabilize the economy and promote consumption, in 2023, the total GDP will exceed 126 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.2%, and the steady improvement of the macro economy will provide a good economic environment for the recovery and development of the food supply chain industry.
According to the calculation of the Food Supply Chain Branch of the China Federation of Things, in 2023, the market size of primary food ingredients will be 7.04 trillion yuan, the scale of food processing will be 12.77 trillion yuan, the scale of food circulation will be 9.15 trillion yuan, and the scale of food consumption will be 16.54 trillion yuan.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Commerce proposed to designate 2024 as the "Year of Consumption Promotion", focusing on the keyword of "continuous expansion", various consumption promotion activities will be held to create a strong consumption atmosphere and provide residents with more diversified and richer consumption experience. Policy dividends continue to emerge.
Supply market: focus on differentiation
While the policy is favorable, there are also fluctuations in the food production and supply market.
In 2023, the wholesale prices of key ingredient markets will continue to fluctuate, and the prices of meat as a key ingredient category will continue to oscillate, among which the prices of beef and poultry will show a downward trend as a whole, and pork prices will begin to decline for four consecutive years in September after bottoming out in July. The upstream live cattle, piglets, and live pigs are cold, and the pessimism or wait-and-see sentiment at the breeding end spreads, and production capacity regulation is the key.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index of food in 2023 will show an oscillating downward trend, and the overall price index will be in the low range.
At the beginning of this year, a "plot" triggered by cranberries to find out the bottom of special ingredients from all over the country was enthusiastically staged on the Internet. The increase in online exposure has aroused consumers' exploration and interest in winter special ingredients, which is a good time to promote the development of the production and processing industry of special ingredients.
This year, the production and processing of specialty ingredients is expected to form a differentiated competitive advantage and help increase the added value of ingredients. With the increase in the diversity of consumer demand, food processing companies will pay more attention to providing personalized, segmented and healthy ingredients.
Demand market: Concentration increases
On the food consumption side, the catering and retail industries will usher in an era of reshuffle in 2023, with closure and closure becoming the norm, and the market will accelerate its liquidation. At the moment of intensified competition in the catering industry, large chains are growing in the wind, and many small and medium-sized enterprises or new entrants are losing serious money.
In 2024, with the improvement of the domestic economic situation and the recovery of the catering industry, the market size of the food supply chain is expected to continue to grow.
The industry's supporting role in the catering industry will be more obvious. With the improvement of the restaurant chain rate, the proportion of self-procurement in stores will gradually decrease, and the food supply chain enterprises will rely on their advantages of collection and distribution, standardization and specialization to seize more market share. According to the estimation of relevant experts in the industry, in 2023, the proportion of food supply chain enterprises in the catering food supply channel will be about 40%, and it is believed that this proportion will be further increased in 2024.
Industry concentration and service professionalism will be further enhanced. According to the data analysis of the TOP100 food supply chain enterprises in 2023, the revenue of the TOP100 enterprises accounts for about 3.5% of the total market, although the overall proportion is relatively low, but the concentration of the top 5 enterprises has increased from 33.86% to 38.74%.
Technology: Digital and intelligent competition
In the case of the declining dividends of scale effect, the technological dividend is in the ascendant, the use of big data to assist decision-making, reduce labor costs through automation, and improve operational efficiency, enterprises should make arrangements as soon as possible and actively embrace digital and intelligent reform.
There are many links in the food supply chain, the chain is long, there are many enterprises in the industry, the development is uneven, and there are great differences in the process of digital intelligence.
With the help of big data analysis and machine learning technology, strict quality monitoring will be achieved to ensure the stable quality of food ingredients and food safety.
While stabilizing quality and food safety with the help of digital intelligence technology, we have also built big data services for the whole industry chain based on digital intelligence technology, developed intelligent operation software for upstream and downstream and peer enterprises, developed a big data trading platform for county-level agricultural development, developed multi-angle meal safety applications for student meal supervision, and developed a cultural tourism cloud platform for the integration of agriculture, culture and tourism...... Empower the food supply chain in an all-round way.
We have been deeply involved in the food supply chain industry and have witnessed the changes and upgrades of the mainland food supply chain industry in the past 29 years. Over the years, we have always put food safety in the first place, improved food safety traceability with the help of information system, improved the refined service of food supply by relying on order agriculture, connected production and marketing needs, and built a bridge for the safe and efficient circulation of agricultural products!