Preface: Iran, Russia and China will hold joint naval exercises in March 2024, the Global Times reported on February 7. This is undoubtedly an earth-shattering thunderstorm for the Western countries led by the United States and for the whole world, and it has stunned the world. In the current world, the Russian-Ukrainian war is undecided, and the conflict in the Middle East is seriously spilled over······. The world is in turmoil unprecedented since World War II, where will the world go? This is a question that tugs at everyone's nerves.
The years are quiet, and in the face of history and reality, it seems that it will always be just a fairy tale.
Throughout human history, changes in the world pattern have depended on the contest between the balancing forces that affect the world pattern. When the various forces are in basic equilibrium, human society will usher in peaceful and stable development; once the multiple forces are out of balance, human society will have turmoil and even war because of the imbalance.
First, the outbreak of World War I and World War II was the result of an imbalance of power
The fundamental cause of the outbreak of the First World War (July 1914-November 1918) was the imbalance in political and economic development among imperialism. With the unfolding of the second industrial revolution, the capitalist countries have benefited a lot, among which Germany in Europe and the United States in the Americas have benefited the most, which has greatly increased Germany's comprehensive national strength, and it is not inferior to Britain and France in Europe. This change in Germany's national power upset the original balance of power on the European continent, and a strong Germany felt deeply unbalanced in the face of the fact that the number of colonies it occupied in the world was far less than that of Britain and France, so this imbalance directly led to the detonation of World War I by Germany.
History is always strikingly similar, but it doesn't simply repeat itself.
The root cause of the Second World War (September 1939-September 1945) was still the imbalance in political and economic development among imperialism. World War II can be understood as a continuation of World War I, because the "Versailles Washington System" formed at the end of World War I balanced world interests, although on the surface it seemed that a whole set of world order to maintain the stability of the world pattern was formed under the leadership of the victorious powers, but this superficial stability and balance was only temporary. Because the "Versailles Treaty" was too harsh on Germany, Germany planted the seeds of revenge, and the "Nine-Power Pact" produced by the Washington Conference broke Japan's calculation of monopolizing China and enjoying the interests of East Asia, and Japan also had long-term resentment, and this hidden imbalance was the fundamental cause of the outbreak of World War II. The economic crisis that swept the capitalist world from 1929 to 1933 caused Germany and Japan to establish fascist regimes one after another, and they attempted to choose foreign military expansion to divert the crisis to solve the serious contradictions caused by the domestic economic crisis at that time, which was only the direct cause of the outbreak of World War II.
Second, the strong trend of the multipolar pattern is increasingly breaking through the old world order in which the United States is the sole pole
After World War II, the Yalta system was formed, which temporarily balanced the world, and then developed into a confrontation between NATO, led by the United States, and the Warsaw Pact led by the Soviet Union, thus forming the so-called bipolar era. With the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the last century, the bipolar pattern no longer exists, and the United States is the dominant pole.
After the collapse of the bipolar pattern, although the United States is the dominant pole, the world also shows the development trend of a multipolar pattern: the European Union, Russia, Japan, India, China, and third world countries.
In recent decades, the United States has relied on its powerful comprehensive national strength to build a world pattern in which it is a pole and dominates the world, wielding the stick of hegemony and power politics to its heart's content in the world, almost arousing the anger of the heavens and the people. However, the multipolar pattern has also continued to develop in recent decades: The European Union is now making more and more of its hardline voice in the world, both economically and politically; Japan is also constantly seeking the goal of becoming an economic power to become a political power; not to mention Russia, whose Putin the Great has long taken a clear-cut stand against the United States' dominance of one country; India's current comprehensive national strength has also developed tremendously; China's rapid development in recent years has attracted the attention of the world; and the developing countries of the third world have also made great progress in recent years. Along with the development of the world's multipolar power, on the other hand, the comprehensive national strength of the United States is on a downward trend. Therefore, the strong trend of the multipolar pattern is increasingly breaking through the old pattern of the United States' monopolar dominance.
Third, the confrontational alliance to carry the Third World War has loomed
In both World War I and World War II, the two warring sides formed two opposing alliances. The warring parties in World War I were the Central Powers and the Entente, and the warring parties in World War II were the Fascist Alliance and the Anti-Fascist Alliance.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for nearly two years, and although the outcome of the war is still undecided, it clearly divides us into two major confrontational alliances: Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and Iran in the Middle East on one side, and NATO countries led by the United States on the other.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the Middle East and its serious spillover situation also clearly divide us into two major confrontational alliances: on one side of the Arab world, the Palestinian Gaza armed forces, the Jordanian Houthi armed forces, the Lebanese Allah armed forces, Syria, Iran and other Middle Eastern countries (Russia is obviously also on the side of the Arab world), and on the other side is Israel and the United States-led NATO countries.
In addition, there are two things that are very interesting: 1. The military alliance formed between Russia and North Korea, in Putin's exact words, "we and North Korea will cooperate in any field." 2. Just today (February 7), the Global Times reported that Iran, Russia and China will hold joint naval exercises in March 2024.
Obviously, based on the above series of phenomena, it is not difficult to see that the queue of the world confrontation station has almost become clearer and clearer from the vague state of foggy eyes.
In summary, it can be seen that the root cause of the outbreak of large-scale war and the antagonistic alliances have matured in these turbulent times, so it is only a matter of time before a third world war will inevitably break out.
#俄乌战争##俄乌冲突##巴以冲突##美国##战争##你会反对战争吗#