Stock market substitutions

Let's talk about the stock market substitution today.

This is to be expected.

After the circuit breaker in January 2016, he was replaced in February 2016.

After the stock market crash in 2018, he was replaced in January 2019.

This time it was after the stock market crash in January 2024, and the replacement will be made in February 2024.

In addition, there is a substitution in the market, which was established in the previous two terms.

In January 2016, the market bottomed out at 2,638 points, and then after the change in February, the market slowly rose from 2,800 to 3,000 points, and then there was a structural market in 2017, and the stock market crashed in 2018.

On January 4, 2019, the market bottomed out at 2440 points, then changed on January 30, followed by a structural market in 2020, peaking at 3731 in February 2021, and then falling for two consecutive years in 2022 until now.

These two times it was a first-time and then substitution.

However, there are also substitutions first, and then the bottom.

In March 2013, the stock market fell from 2,300 points all the way, and in June 2013, there was a sharp decline, piercing out the historical bottom of 1,849 points in one breath. Then there was the mad bull market of 2015.

Generally speaking, since 2013, these three terms have had a big market in each term, but there have also been stock market crashes.

肖，是2015年牛市+2015年股灾。

Liu, is the structural market in 2017 + the stock market crash in 2018.

Yi, is the structural market in 2020 + the stock market crash in 2023.

Therefore, although there is a certain probability of substitution, this "bottom."

"It can be before or after the substitution, so the specific situation should be considered according to the actual situation, and you can't carve a boat for a sword.

On Monday, the stock price fell to the limit, and many people followed the trend everywhere to tell ghost stories, giving people the feeling that the stock market was about to take a pill.

The stock market soared on Tuesday, and some people began to shout about a big bull market, for fear that they would not be able to buy it.

That's the stock market, that's human nature.

The stock market involves people's vital interests, so it will greatly magnify the weakness of human nature and be full of emotion, which is the norm of the stock market and the root cause of most people's losses in stock trading.

Therefore, if you want to make real money in stock trading, you have to overcome your own human weaknesses, overcome greed, and overcome fear, which is undoubtedly very difficult, so there are very few people who can really make money in the stock market.

It's easy to earn for a while.

It is difficult to make a stable profit in the long term.

The day before yesterday, the stock market fell to the limit, and I also wrote an article in time to do psychological massage with you, and then the stock market also rose sharply yesterday, which is more face-saving, and it is not in vain that I wrote a long article on the stock market alone, but everyone should not have too high expectations for the stock market because of the sharp rebound in the past two days.

Overall, it is necessary to do a good job in managing personal expectations.

Personally, I think that the stock market will still revolve around 3000 points, do a long-term grinding and bottoming, to finally complete the construction of the historical bottom, this cycle may be relatively long, starting from 2022, I estimate that it will take 2-3 years to grind the bottom, so those who hold shares in the market should still be prepared to boil, but don't be too pessimistic.

And then a lot of people are also more concerned about the new resume.

I took a look, and in general, I belong to people with rich experience in financial and securities management.

The previous terms were all from the four major industries.

And this one is a person who does not have the experience of the four major banks and belongs to the CSRC itself, but he does not only stay in the CSRC.

His resume can be broadly divided into two phases:

1. Securities Regulatory Commission stage.

He joined the work with the establishment of the Securities Regulatory Commission.

Since the establishment of the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 1992, he has served as the Director of the General Division of the Institutional Department, the Deputy Director of the Institutional Department, the Deputy Director and Director of the Institutional Supervision Department, the Director of the Risk Management Office of the Securities Company, and the Director of the Fund Supervision Department.

In 2005, he served as the "Director of the Risk Disposal Office" of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, specializing in the risk management of securities firms, with a tough style.

It can be seen that at this stage, he is mainly "dealing with risks" and "cracking down on rat bins".

2. Shanghai stage;

Since 2010, he has been sent to Shanghai, and has been in Shanghai for more than ten years.

During this period, he also served as the head of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2016.

Then, since 2017, he has joined the Shanghai Municipal Government, and in January 2018, he may be appointed as the vice mayor of Shanghai, mainly in charge of finance.

Shanghai is our financial center, and he is in charge of finance, and he is basically on the front line.

Therefore, he has rich experience in financial management, including the experience of the CSRC in dealing with risks and fighting rat warehouses in the early days, as well as local management experience.

I noticed a detail, in July 2023, he just received a new appointment and entered the political and legal system.

Now, only half a year later, he has been transferred back to Beijing from Shanghai.

Personally, I think it's a bit of a "critical appointment".

Judging from his experience, he was sent from Beijing to the local area, and then returned to Beijing from the local area, which should belong to the practical type.

Moreover, he has rich experience in "dealing with risks" and "fighting rat traps", and his style is tough.

This also reminds me of the recent stock market crash, when the financial ghosts were making waves, and there were obviously funds concentrated in malicious shorting.

On February 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it would carry out joint research and judgment with the Ministry of Public Security and found a number of cases of malicious short-selling suspected of manipulating the market.

It mentions that "manipulating the market to maliciously short-sell, seriously eroding the people's "money bags", has stood on the opposite side of all stockholders, disrupting the normal rhythm of the healthy and stable operation of the stock market." The China Securities Regulatory Commission will maintain a high-pressure posture of "zero tolerance", resolutely crack down, and let those who dare to illegally manipulate and maliciously short sellers "go bankrupt and sit in prison". In this warning, don't defy the law and take the chestnut from the fire.

”

I think the few short-selling gang cases mentioned in it are still just small heads, and the real big heads are still behind.

I've said a few times in the past four years that the financial sector is the most ghostly field, and there are a lot of complications involved, after all, it's the closest area to money.

Financial reform has always been one of the hardest bones, and financial reform is the bottom of the deep waters.

We started to reform the financial sector two years ago, and in the last two years, we have been falling from all walks of life in the financial sector.

With the advancement of financial anti-corruption and financial reform, it will inevitably affect some vested interest groups, and some people may also face some people who take risks and fight back frantically, and may even engage in internal and external collusion, eat inside and outside, cooperate with foreign capital, and maliciously short-sell, all of which we need to crack down on.

Therefore, this stock market substitution, I believe that we will further strengthen financial anti-corruption, including cracking down on this malicious short-selling behavior, and will further promote financial reform and strengthen financial supervision.

That's all for today's article.

At the end of the article, as a warning, the final value of the 7-day new infection rate in last Sunday's voting result was a significant increase to 5%.

Although it is normal to wait for this Sunday, the results for two consecutive weeks to see whether it will enter the outbreak period, but combined with the previous foreign epidemic, as well as the current JN.1 new mutant strain has begun to circulate in China, the possibility of entering the outbreak period around the Spring Festival is still not small, so here is a timely warning.

Of course, the progress of the epidemic in various places must be staggered, and everyone needs to consider it according to the local situation, and I am only here to make a macro warning from the national level.

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