Summary of Views
The core point of view: more neutral supply, the operating rate of gas head continues to rise; international urea prices rebound rapidly, export profits reappear, legal inspection is expected to start after the holiday; downstream traders began to take goods, pre-holiday orders are sufficient. On the whole, the futures price may rebound in the short term, and it is recommended that the 3-5 contract is positive.
Monthly difference: more neutral spot sales have improved recently, and there is a certain expectation of improvement in export expectations, so you can consider longing the difference between March and May.
Policy: Neutral There are no major policies this week.
Spot: neutral more gas head device began to recover, production rebounded rapidly; the pent-up demand in the early stage began to release, traders began to take goods, pre-holiday orders have been basically full, some enterprises have stopped collecting.
Inventory: Neutral Recently, sales have improved, and corporate inventories have maintained a slight pace of destocking, but with the approach of the Spring Festival and the weather affecting transportation, there is an expectation that the inventory will be re-accumulated.
Exports: more neutral International urea prices rebounded significantly, export profits rebounded, and export legal inspection is expected to resume in the near future, and exports are expected to be positive.
Demand: Neutral compound fertilizer operating rate continued to decline slightly, downstream goods began to be cautious, pay attention to the demand for saving fertilizer; industrial demand is average, melamine prices fluctuate little, but the operating rate continues to rise slightly.
Spot rose slightly
The daily average price of urea spot
- Pre-received orders before the Spring Festival are better, most enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and other places are basically full of pre-holiday orders, in a better trading atmosphere, enterprise quotations rebounded slightly, but in recent days, rain and snow weather has affected the traffic superimposed on the approach of the Spring Festival, and the downstream goods have slowed down slightly.
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea spot market price
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea spot ex-factory price
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea spot international price
- After the domestic spot is lowered, the international price rises, export profits reappear, and the market expects that the post-holiday legal inspection will be carried out to a limited extent, and export demand may become an important factor affecting the market in the near future.
Data source: WIND, Longzhong Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Operating rates continue to pick up
Urea operating rate
- At the end of January, gas head urea enterprises gradually resumed production, and next week Xinjiang Tianyun, Ordos United, and other devices resumed production, or the maintenance volume is likely to continue to decline, and it is expected that urea production will rebound significantly in February compared with the previous month.
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea production
Data source: Longzhong Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Business inventories fell slightly
Urea stocks
- Last week, urea sales improved, of which large particles were shipped faster, and the inventory of most enterprises declined, but at the beginning of this week, due to the impact of weather on transportation, superimposed on the approach of the Spring Festival, enterprises have a certain expectation of accumulation.
- Recently, the port inventory is basically unchanged, remaining at a low position, pre-holiday exports or difficult to see changes, but at present, the price of urea in other parts of the world has risen rapidly, export profits have appeared, and the export is expected to improve under the conditions, the number of exports may increase.
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea monthly inventory
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea margins were relatively weak
Fixed bed process cost profit
- At present, the price of coal has stabilized, and the spot price of urea has fallen in the early stage, and the profit of the current fixed-bed process has narrowed significantly.
数据来源:Mysteel,紫金天风期货
Airflow bed process cost profit
数据来源:Mysteel,紫金天风期货
Profit on the cost of the natural gas process
数据来源:Mysteel,紫金天风期货
The number of exports may improve
Urea import and export volume
- Export profits have reappeared, and there are market rumors that there is a limited expectation of liberalization of the legal inspection policy.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Demand is bearish
Number of days of urea pre-harvest
- Recently, urea sales have improved, and some companies have been full before the holiday, but near the Spring Festival, the weather has affected transportation, and urea sales have weakened recently, but on the whole, urea sales have remained in a good state.
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Compound fertilizer prices
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Longzhong Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Utilization rate and output of compound fertilizer
- This week, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate continued to decline, down 3.5 percentage points from last week.
- In the main production areas, some small and medium-sized enterprises have been shut down, and the operating load of large enterprises has decreased. Approaching the Spring Festival, enterprises began to wait and see, the situation of new orders was average, and market activity declined.
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Raw material (urea) demand for compound fertilizers
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Melamine price
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Melamine operating rate and production
- The capacity utilization rate of melamine has improved, among which the output growth in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and other places is more obvious.
- Chongqing Jianfeng 60,000-ton unit, Zhongyuan Dahua unit, Hubei Huaqiang plant resumed, and it is expected that the output will be further increased in the near future.
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Melamine cost profit
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea consumption
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Upstream coal prices have rebounded
Natural gas and urea prices
Source: Wind, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Data source: Longzhong Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Data source: Wind, Longzhong Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Thermal coal and urea prices
- Thermal coal prices have begun to rebound recently, with upstream supply reduced due to holidays, downstream daily consumption is higher, but non-electricity demand is weaker, and downstream inventories have begun to decline from highs. The recent rebound in coal prices may put some pressure on some higher-cost urea producers.
Source: CCTD, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Data source: CCTD, Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Domestic synthetic ammonia market price
- Recently, the new maintenance enterprises include Liaoning Dayang Technology, Inner Mongolia Datang Dingwang, Guangxi Fengdeng, Chongqing Kabele, etc.
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
International market price of synthetic ammonia
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
The futures price fluctuated strongly
Urea futures price
Data source: Zhengshang, WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea basis
Data source: Zhengshang, WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea monthly difference
Data source: Zhengshang, WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Urea warehouse receipt
- The number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly, but remained at an absolute high level.
Data source: Zhengshang, WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
Balance sheet
Urea balance sheet
Data sources: Zhengshang, WIND, Zhuochuang, Longzhong, Zijin Tianfeng Futures
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