With high inventory pressure and more than half of the loss, how difficult will it be for car dealers in 2023 and what will happen in 2024?

——This article is the 92nd issue of the "Second Senior Brother Research Institute".

According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the cumulative sales of domestic passenger cars in 2023 will reach 21.703 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%.

You must know that at the beginning of the year, the Passenger Association predicted that China's auto market would have zero growth this year, which can be said to be beyond expectations.

So, are all those related to the automobile industry eating meat?

Not really!

At least, that's not the case with a lot of car dealerships.

1. The inventory coefficient has dropped to 1.43, but is everything really good?

To see how the dealers are surviving, there is a more important reference index: inventory coefficient.

Let's talk a little more here: under normal circumstances, the inventory coefficient is between 1.8-1.2, which is a reasonable range; the inventory coefficient is greater than 1.5, it exceeds the warning line; the inventory coefficient is greater than 2.5, indicating that the dealer's inventory is too high, and the operating pressure and risk are relatively large.

According to the results of the "Auto Dealer Inventory" survey released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the auto dealer inventory coefficient in November was 1.43, lower than the warning line of 1.5.

This seems to indicate that the life of auto dealers has eased a little, because the inventory coefficient reflects the dealership's capital occupation efficiency, inventory depletion cycle and anti-risk ability.

But the survey also shows that in the first 11 months of this year, only in June and November, dealers' inventory coefficients were below 1.5. If you take the whole year as an indicator, the situation of car dealers this year is not optimistic.

According to research data, the loss ratio of auto dealers in 2023 will exceed 50%, which is the highest loss ratio since 2016.

This figure is basically consistent with the figure given in the "National Auto Dealer Survival Survey Report" in August 2023.

This shows that after half a year, the survival situation of car dealers has not changed significantly.

2. Double squeezing, car dealers also have to shuffle?

The current distribution model of China's auto market is still dominated by 4S stores, but since 2017, this model has been under great pressure, and the proportion of losses has been increasing.

According to a report by the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the three years from 2020 to 2022, more than 5,000 4S stores in China have withdrawn from the network.

Entering 2023, traditional car dealers are in even worse shape, and they have been double-squeezed.

The first is the shrinkage of the traditional fuel vehicle market.

At present, most traditional car dealers rely on traditional fuel vehicles to survive, but everyone has seen the situation of traditional fuel vehicles this year. The so-called inventory is mainly the fuel vehicles that cannot be sold.

Although the stock of fuel vehicles is still huge, it is difficult to keep 4S stores running only by relying on the daily maintenance and maintenance of old users.

Secondly, the vigorous development of new energy vehicles has robbed users of traditional fuel vehicles.

On the one hand, dealers need to digest the huge inventory of fuel vehicles, but on the other hand, it is difficult to eat the increment brought by new energy vehicles.

So, is it possible for traditional car dealers to transform into new energy dealers?

Of course it's possible!

But the point is, the cost of transformation is too high.

First of all, the working principle of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is very different, and the sales and after-sales models are naturally very different.

To take the simplest example, will a large Toyota dealer transform into a new energy dealer in the short term?

It's difficult, because the cost is too high, which is the same reason that Toyota is difficult to quickly transform into a new energy manufacturer.

Second, in the new energy era, automakers have made major adjustments to their sales channels, and traditional auto dealers may not have so many opportunities even if they are willing to transform.

BYD's high-end sub-brands Denza, Yangwang and Equation Leopard basically adopt the direct store model, and about 20% of the channels in the ocean network are directly operated by BYD.

In addition, Tesla, Ideal, and Weilai are also directly operated, and Xpeng Motors also adopts a model of "heavy direct sales and light franchise".

3. What challenges will dealers encounter in 2024?

Car dealers belong to the automotive industry, and their trends are closely related to the performance of the automotive market.

In 2024, the reshuffle of the auto market will further intensify, and the auto dealer circle will also usher in a storm.

Which dealers will have a major crisis?

It depends on which car brands will take the lead next year!

In 2023, Acura, Renault, Jeep, and Mitsubishi have all withdrawn from the Chinese market. But these are only small characters that belong to the first batch to be eliminated.

In 2024, it may be the turn of those big brands.

In the past month or so, FAW Toyota announced production cuts, Guangqi Honda announced its first layoff in 25 years, and Nissan has declined by 28.66% this year.

And these are still the brands that are better mixed in the current car market.

As for the second-tier joint ventures, such as Chevrolet, Kia, Hyundai, etc., think about it, how long has it been since you heard about them releasing blockbuster new cars?

One must build on a firm foundation?

In 2024, the sales volume of traditional joint ventures will shrink further. Traditional dealers who have not had time or are reluctant to "go" this year may have to make up their minds to leave next year.

4. There is an opportunity in the crisis, and the dawn will also appear in 2024?

Just like traditional car manufacturers, traditional car dealers will also transform, and in 2024, some opportunities for a turnaround may appear.

For example, since the second half of this year, the traditional dealer model has been quietly picked up by many new energy manufacturers.

In July, Xpeng Motors opened dealer franchise authorization, and then the market reported that NIO contacted the leading domestic car dealers and handed over the Alpine sub-brand to traditional dealers for sales.

Looking at Leapmotor, dealer stores account for 86% of the total sales, contributing 90% of sales.

Earlier, Tesla also had the news of exploring the "4S store model".

There are also inefficient and low-quality stores in the direct stores, and there are elites in the franchise stores.

As the scale of sales continues to expand, they may also bring more opportunities to dealers.

In addition, Geely, Aion, Changan, Great Wall, Chery and other manufacturers also tend to look for traditional dealers after the successful transformation.

The new energy market will further expand in 2024 and is expected to be more than 10 million units, and the increase in sales of new energy vehicles may become the entire responsibility for the overall growth of automobiles.

Is this opportunity really not seized by traditional dealers?

Conclusion:

The old ones don't go, the new ones don't come, new energy vehicle manufacturers are transforming, and car dealers are also transforming. From January to November 2023, the sales of Aion, Geely, Wuling, Changan, and Ideal New Energy will all exceed 300,000 units.