Spot gold rose slightly overnight, hitting an intraday high of $2,048.12 and a low of $2,028.85 before finally closing at $2,036.57. Gold rose slightly in the European session today and is currently hovering around $2,037.
The market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision!
Overnight, the U.S. stock market was in a wait-and-see mood, and the three major U.S. stock indexes diverged. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.35%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 0.76% and 0.06%, respectively.
Analysts said that the Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision in 2024 is about to be announced, which has made the U.S. stock market have a strong wait-and-see mood.
At present, the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and market participants will look for clues to cut interest rates. In the latest dot plot, Fed officials expect three rate cuts this year, with money markets expecting March to be the first.
In the post-meeting statement, the Fed may provide an important hint about the interest rate movement by removing a wording from the previous statement, which reads: "In determining the extent of any additional policy consolidation, it may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time" and then outline the conditions for its assessment.
Over the past year or so, the wording has highlighted the Fed's willingness to continue raising interest rates until the inflation target is met. Removing the clause would open the door to potential future rate cuts, and leaving it open would send a signal to policymakers that they were not sure what would happen.
It is worth noting that on January 30, local time, 9.026 million JOLTS job openings in the United States in December 2023 were higher than the expected 8.75 million and unexpectedly hit a three-month high. Analysts said the JOLTS report was one of the labor market data that the Fed is closely watching, and the increase in job openings indicates a solid labor market, which weighed on the Fed's rate cut expectations.
In addition, today's A-share season ended in January, which was very bleak.
At the end of January 2024, the three major indexes all closed out of the monthly line for six consecutive days, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 6%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling more than 13%, and the ChiNext falling more than 16%.
On January 31, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and adjusted. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,800 points, or 1.48%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%.
A total of 489 stocks rose, 4,815 stocks fell, and 184 stocks fell to the limit. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 758.2 billion, an increase of 94.5 billion from the previous trading day. Northbound funds bought a net of 3.701 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net purchase of 758 million yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net purchase of 2.943 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
On the last trading day of January, A-shares did not usher in the "Great Miracle Day", but showed stronger emotions.
Many sectors and individual stocks that have been "left out in the cold" by funds are facing challenges. As of today's close, the number of falling limits hit a new high this month (173, including ST stocks), and many branch sectors of the technology line fell by 20%~30% in the first month of the year.
When the market was in crisis, Zhongzitou, bank stocks and performance pre-happiness concept stocks led by "Ning Wang" tried to stabilize the index and sentiment. The previously hotly discussed "chasing the prefix or copying the king of Ning" in the market unexpectedly turned into a win-win situation.
Looking ahead to 2024, the demand for smartphones, computers, servers, and AIOT is expected to gradually pick up, and AR/VR/MR innovation is expected to bring new applications and stimulate new demand. In the medium and long term, AI is expected to empower consumer electronics and bring new demand for replacement, and we are optimistic about AI-driven, demand recovery and independent and controllable benefit industry chain.
In addition to this, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
The Korean Peninsula has an emergency again!
At around 8:40 local time on January 31, a US F-16 fighter plane stationed in South Korea crashed near Jido, Gunsan City, Jeollabuk-do, South Korea. The report quoted US and South Korean military sources as saying that the fighter plane crashed into the sea, and the pilot ejected and escaped before the crash and has been rescued.
According to a report by the Korean Central News Agency on the 31st, the Korean People's Army conducted a "Arrow-2" strategic cruise missile launch training in the western waters of the Korean Peninsula the day before.
It is reported that the training has contributed to testing the KPA's rapid counterattack posture and enhancing its strategic strike capability, and at the same time has not had any negative impact on the security of neighboring countries.
Based on this, it is speculated that the DPRK may imply that the "Arrow-2" has completed its actual combat deployment in the front-line troops.
It is also worth mentioning that Iran suddenly made a move.
On January 29, local time, Iran executed four members of Israel's intelligence and secret service (Mossad). According to the report, the four people were arrested by Iranian intelligence services after illegally entering Iran from the Kurdish Autonomous Region of Iraq (Kurdistan Autonomous Region) last year with the intention of carrying out an explosion operation on an equipment manufacturing plant in Isfahan, Iran.
In addition, there was a large-scale transfer of personnel of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria.
It is reported that after the attack on the US military base on the 28th, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel withdrew from several command centers in Deir ez-Zor Province, Syria, and moved to the rural area of Homs in central Syria.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has also evacuated its premises at the airport in the center of the Homs Desert, with all but a handful of security personnel.
Jintou.com: Analysis of gold trend on 1.31
There is ADP data today. At present, the overall market is strong, the overall low point is raised, and it can stabilize after the rise and fall every night, and the K-line is along the 4-hour level of 5 and 10 moving averages, and the market is suspected of ending the daily level adjustment market.
Image source: Jintou.com
The weekly level has not been reversed here, so the trend is the transition stage of the end of the daily level adjustment and the opening of the weekly level market adjustment, and the washing is also more serious, the volatility is very strong, and the trend is insufficient, which is not conducive to short-term trading.
We must at least wait until the end of this week's data and the end of this week's market, as well as the end of next week's market, to be able to fully judge whether the weekly level can start a new adjustment and decline. However, the strength of the current daily level is relatively obvious.
From the perspective of short-term trading, the steady point is not trading, and the aggressive point is to touch the daily level 5 moving average to have a short-term long opportunity.
Disclaimer: The above information is for reference only and is not used as a basis for trading!