Predictions for 2024 – How far is it from pure electric domination?

People want to see the future in order to eliminate uncertainty. But predicting the future is very difficult because there are so many factors that affect the future. Each change in each factor will not only affect the course of events, but may even lead to the occurrence of fundamentally different abrupt events. However, this does not affect our logical analysis of the future, and the key is not whether the conclusions reached through predictions are right or wrong, but in understanding the logical relationships. The deeper and more comprehensive we understand this relationship, the more realistic the predictions will become.

1. Scientific prediction

Yesterday (January 30, 2024), at the party welcoming Mr. Yuan Lanfeng of the University of Science and Technology of China, it can be described as a brilliant star, and the bigwigs in the science popularization community gathered. Zhou Binghong, a teacher from the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, asked me a question: Why do the articles I write often give people a particularly surprising viewpoint, but they can give particularly hard-core evidence? I replied as follows:

Aristotle begins his book Metaphysics with a discussion of what wisdom is. In his book he says, "In the first place we assert that a wise man should be as knowledgeable as he can be, and not in the knowledge of individuals; Secondly, a wise person must be able to know things that are difficult and not easily known (what feels like is available to man, and therefore is easy, and is not wise)." Lakatos, a philosopher of science, judged science by the ability to obtain astonishing prophecies. These understandings make sense, but they are all imperfect. For example, today's space technology can give extremely accurate predictions about the flight trajectory of spacecraft, but they will not be regarded as "amazing predictions", but they are of course science. However, the astonishingly accurate prediction does have an excellent popularization effect on science, because it can be very attractive.

All rigorous science should be based on measurement to establish axiomatic mathematical theories, when the most general, the most hardcore axiomatic basis is found, and the comprehensive and accurate measurement data based on logical deduction, it is possible to deduce completely unexpected, or ordinary people difficult to understand and accept the conclusion. Such a conclusion is very useful for proving the scientific validity of the theory. Indeed, I often use such conclusions as a way to promote my own system of third-generation scientific theories.

A typical example of this is the prediction of the development trend of pure electric vehicles. I started buying my first pure electric car in 2015 and started writing the book "Pure Electric Vehicles: Dominate the World" after driving for half a year. In 2015, when China sold 331092 new energy vehicles (NEVs) and HEVs, I concluded that BEVs would account for nearly 100% of China's annual new car additions in the most decade from 2016. And give an annual sales forecast. At that time, few people accepted my views, including all my friends and the big Vs in the science popularization industry here. But now more and more people are embracing this view.

2. The conclusion of my new prediction

1. In 2024, NEV sales will increase by 50%-60% to 14 million to 15 million units.
2. In 2025, it will grow by more than 100%, and the sales of pure electric vehicles (excluding hybrids) will reach more than 30 million units. Overall car sales will be around 36 million units.
3. In 2026, because it is close to saturation, the growth rate of pure electric vehicles will decline significantly. There will still be production of fuel vehicles, but it will be mainly used for exports, and domestic sales will be well below 1 million units, basically zero. Hybrid vehicles will also be zeroed, and the situation of pure electric vehicles dominating the world has been initially established.
4. By 2036, the number of fuel vehicles, including hybrid vehicles, in China will basically reach zero. Pure electric vehicles account for nearly 100% of the total ownership.

3. Analysis of the basic logic of prediction and the reasons for deviation

1. Basic scientific attitude towards forecasting

First, let's talk about my long-term prediction of BEVs compared to the actual situation. My long-term prediction is clearly reflected in the title of my book, Pure Electric Vehicles: Reigning Nation: 100% adoption of pure electric vehicles will not be too long. In less than 10 years from 2016, BEVs will grow at a triple-digit rate (100%-200% year-on-year), rapidly increasing the penetration rate of new markets to close to 100%, and the sales forecast data for each year is given.

At that time, when I was talking to my friend Dr. Yang Zheng, he asked me, "Why do you make the forecast data so accurate, and if there is a deviation, won't it become a pretext for others to attack?" I replied: This is the case with all scientific research, and it is necessary to give accurate predictions and corresponding logic. In this way, we can verify that the basic logic is valid. Even if the facts deviate from the predictions, it is easy to analyze what caused the deviation and thus gain more scientific understanding. Of course, there are many so-called professional institutions that will also give very accurate predictions about the future, and the logic based on them is that after so many years, even if it is inaccurate or even far away, few people take it seriously and have long been forgotten. But I am not going to use this method of fooling, and many years from now, even if the reader forgets, I will go back and carefully examine the extent to which the predictions deviated from the facts, and carefully analyze the reasons for this deviation.

In fact, all experiments in scientific research are similar to this, first make predictions based on existing knowledge, and then use experiments to obtain measurement data for testing. In most exploratory science experiments, there are general data deviations, but that doesn't matter. According to the magnitude and law of the deviation value, combined with the analysis of various influencing factors, further judgment and further experiments can be carried out, so as to obtain further scientific understanding. Deviations generally occur in the following situations:

• There is a bias in the cognition of the mathematical laws of basic logic.
• There are causal factors that have not been taken into account.
• There are a variety of accidental interferences.
• Other.

2. The basic logic of forecasting

The logic of my prediction is very clear: BEVs are a revolution from the perspective of society as a whole, but if you look at the car technology itself, it is just an improvement. Aside from the powertrain and the refueling network, the rest is essentially a car. Therefore, roads, parking lots, other auto parts except the power system are basically the same, or the technical base is the same, it is easy to grow up on the basis of the existing mature industry - tires are still the original tires, automotive glass or the original automotive glass. This kind of modification can usually be done in a very short time. The fewer parts involved in the improvement, the shorter the switching time. I have provided two historical examples to illustrate this:

One is the automobile industry itself, the engine displacement of fuel vehicles has developed from China I to China VI, and basically the completion of all the switching time of each generation is 3 years. If you want to calculate the growth rate, it will be sky-high.

Another case is the mobile phone users of mobile communication, from 2G to 3G, 4G, 5G, basically each generation of switching time is more than 6 years. On the surface, each generation of technology is a major change, but in fact, the basic optical fiber transmission network, switches, computer rooms, and even base station sites and towers, mobile service outlets, etc., most of the resources are inherited from the past, and the main changes are only air interfaces and mobile phones. Originally, the average person would change their mobile phone in 2 or 3 years. That's why it's almost complete in just over 6 years in a big technological era.

Considering that there are relatively more new technical links such as power batteries and charging networks for pure electric vehicles, I predict that there is still room for completing the switch from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles within 10 years. Actual developments have also proved to be broadly in line with my predictions.

3. Deviations between actual developments and projections

Objectively speaking, there is indeed some deviation between my long-term forecasts and actual results.

Table 1 The actual development of new energy vehicles in China from 2015 to 2022

The actual development situation is that the three-year growth rate from 2018 to 2020 suddenly stagnated from triple-digit growth to about zero. In 2023, sales will be 9.495 million units (including 70.4% of pure electric vehicles, 29.53% of hybrid vehicles, and 0.06% of fuel cell vehicles), with an annual growth rate of 37.9%. The other years were mostly close to triple-digit growth, which was in line with my forecast.

4. The reason for the deviation in 2018-2020 - cracking down on fraudulent compensation

The main reason for the deviation from 2018 to 2020 was the crackdown on fraudulent compensation. On the face of it, this is an unexpected circumstance that can be classified as uncontrollable. But on the other hand, it is also a factor that needs to be taken into account and has a certain regularity. This is because in all areas where the state heavily subsidizes or invests in support, such problems often arise at the initial stage. This is not only the case in the field of new energy vehicles, but also photovoltaics, chips, etc., which have more or less affected the overall development progress due to the rectification of the industry. So, this is both an accident and not exactly an accident. This needs to be considered in advance as an important influencing factor in the future development forecast of the new industry.

However, even a momentary significant slowdown in the pace of development as a result of such problems does not affect long-term trends. Since 2021, it has returned to the range of triple-digit growth.

5. Potential Mineral Resource Constraints

Lithium ore is the most important resource for pure electric vehicles. If lithium resources are insufficient, it can also become an important constraint. Because the exploration and development of lithium ore takes a long time, it may take 2 or 3 years. Therefore, in the process of continuous triple-digit growth of pure electric vehicles of more than 100%, it will be easy to encounter the bottleneck constraints of mineral resources in a certain period, resulting in a slowdown in the development rate. From 2018 to 2020, while cracking down on fraudulent subsidies, it also left a certain space for the production capacity growth of lithium resources. Due to the high-speed explosion of pure electric vehicles, the growth of lithium resource exploration and mining has been greatly stimulated. The world's proven lithium reserves have grown rapidly from more than 40 million tons five years ago to 98 million tons at the beginning of 2023. New large-scale lithium deposits have been explored. Entering 2024, the price of lithium carbonate is around 100,000 per tonne, which is already close to the bottom of the long-term price.

6. Industry Conflicts of Interest

However, none of the above factors can explain the slowdown in 2023. Because the subsidies are basically gone, there is no problem of fraudulent subsidies. Lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in 2023, and there is no problem of lithium resource limitations. A careful analysis of the development process of new energy vehicles in 2023 shows that fuel vehicles have begun to reduce prices sharply in response to the competitive pressure of pure electric vehicles, and at the same time restrict the price reduction of new energy vehicles, which has brought a great impact on the development of new energy vehicles. If you analyze this superficial phenomenon in more depth, you will find that there is a very essential difference between the two actual historical reference cases I provided earlier and new energy vehicles, that is, the conflict of interest in the industry:

Whether it is the evolution of various generations of mobile communication or the upgrade of fuel vehicle emission standards, it does not involve conflicts of industry interest groups. From China I to China II, there is almost no change in whether it is an engine manufacturer or a R&D and production personnel. From 3G to 4G and 5G, the operators are still those operators, the manufacturers who produce 4G equipment and mobile phones are still those manufacturers, and the personnel are still those personnel. In the process of technological upgrading, basically everyone in the entire industry, all media, all government agencies, etc., basically unanimously expressed their stance to embrace the new generation of technology, and only a very small number of critics will voice some different voices.

However, new energy vehicles are significantly different, and they carry many fundamental conflicts of intrinsic industry interests. Switching from combustion engine vehicles to pure electric vehicles has the following significant industry transitions:

• The energy is completely converted from gasoline and diesel to electricity.
• The power is completely converted from the engine and gearbox to the battery, motor and reducer.
• The refueling facility is completely converted from a gas station to a charging station.
• Since pure electric vehicles require almost no maintenance, 4S stores will be closed on a large scale.
• ......

The above industry transformations will bring about deep and widespread fundamental conflicts of interest in the industry. Manufacturers, operators, personnel, and industries may be completely different. Theoretically, the original manufacturers of fuel vehicles may have more advantages when they switch to new energy vehicles purely from the overall business perspective, and most of them have deeper resources. However, their competitive advantage in fuel engines is too deep to give up. Therefore, new energy vehicles are often a new role in actively promoting. This leads to competition among a wider range of industry interest groups.

It is precisely because of the above-mentioned industry interest conversion and competition that are far more serious than the internal technology upgrade, so it is understandable why there are so many irrational public opinions attacking new energy vehicles. This has caused a lot of confusion in the market selection.

However, when new energy vehicles gradually become a climate, fuel vehicle interest groups have to deal with it head-on with direct price competition. This unprecedented price discount will have a significant impact on the competitiveness of new energy vehicles in the short term. This is a key reason for the slowdown in 2023.

Another secondary reason: the price of lithium ore skyrocketed in 2022, reaching nearly 600,000 per ton of lithium carbonate at its peak, more than 6 times the price at the bottom. In 2023, manufacturers will have a lot of lithium inventories that will be taken over at a high level in 2022, which will put some pressure on the cost of new energy vehicle batteries in 2023.

Fourth, the fundamental advantages of pure electric vehicles

Why do BEVs have to dominate the world? I've discussed this many times in the past. If it can be summed up in one sentence: compared with pure electric vehicles, fuel vehicles are absolutely useless.

• The cost of ownership (power consumption and maintenance costs per 100 km) of BEVs is almost zero.
• Since the cost of using a pure electric vehicle is so low (1/10 of that of a gasoline vehicle), the problem of reduced range in all situations is not a problem at all. For example, in winter, the cruising range of running at high speed has decreased significantly. Even if it is reduced by half, the cost is still 1/5 of that of a gasoline vehicle. What if it drops by two-thirds? The cost is still less than one-third of that of a gasoline vehicle. Therefore, paying attention to the change in the mileage of pure electric vehicles does not make any sense at all to increase the existence value of fuel vehicles. In addition, the problem of declining range in winter has been greatly mitigated by improvements in thermal management technology.
• New BEVs already do not need to replace batteries at all throughout their life cycle. The so-called battery replacement cost is only the situation that exists in the early days of pure electric vehicles.
• The cost of new charging facilities is two orders of magnitude lower than that of gas stations.
• The cost of batteries is falling by 10% a year and shows no signs of stopping, while engine technology progress has long been stalled.
• Pure electric vehicles provide a wide space for intelligence, but fuel vehicles are naturally not suitable for intelligence. Now the intelligent competitive advantage of pure electric vehicles has begun to be significantly demonstrated.
• The power performance of the lowest-end pure electric vehicle is also significantly better than that of the flagship fuel car, and even better than the fuel sports car.
• The exclusive configuration of a large number of luxury fuel vehicles has long been the standard configuration of pure electric vehicles. For example, knob-type gear shifting.
• The direct cost of ownership of pure electric vehicles has begun to be lower than that of gasoline vehicles.
• As a node of the mobile power grid, it has begun to show a broader application development space.
• The most fundamental one, at a certain time period, you can always find a certain problem with pure electric vehicles. However, the cost of batteries, a key component of pure electric vehicles, is declining at a rate of 10% per year, and there is no bottom in sight for a long time. However, the engine technology and price of gasoline vehicles have long been in a state of complete stagnation. Therefore, no matter what pure electric vehicle problem you raise, the key is not the problem itself, but whether it can be solved, and in the short term. With battery costs falling at such a frantic rate of 10% per year, all problems are no longer a problem. All the problems of pure electric vehicles that people blame today will eventually find that all are problems that fuel vehicles will have, and they will all be transformed into the advantages of pure electric vehicles. For example, the biggest advantage of pure electric vehicles in the future is that there is no range anxiety, and because of the closure of a large number of gas stations, range anxiety will become the biggest problem for fuel vehicles.
• It is important to emphasize that carbon emissions are not the main driver for China's development of pure electric vehicles. One of the key drivers of this is the strategic security of energy.
• ......

It has been almost 8 years since I started driving a pure electric vehicle in 2015, and I already know the characteristics of all pure electric vehicles. This has saved at least 100,000 yuan in car costs in less than 8 years, which is equivalent to the value of an economical pure electric vehicle. Initially, the first all-electric vehicle had a range of only 160 km, which was replaced with 501 km in mid-2021. Later, he deliberately drove this 501-kilometer pure electric vehicle many times, and ran more than 20,000 kilometers of long-distance distances, spanning more than 10 provinces, including long-distance driving in winter, and there was no range anxiety at all. This is especially true now as the coverage of the charging network continues to improve. Now someone has driven a pure electric car with a range of 600 kilometers from Jiangsu to St. Petersburg, Russia.

All the public opinion attacking pure electric vehicles is brought about by the conflict of interests between industry operators. Hybrid cars are a deformed product of this so-called "range anxiety" public opinion, and in fact this model is already meaningless. In particular, the charging network will soon reach 100% coverage – not only in all service areas, but even in all parking areas (which are now used only for parking), and finally in a large number of temporary parking lots on motorways, with charging stations spaced no more than 20 kilometers apart. On the other hand, this will be fully reflected when the battery problem is solved more and more perfectly.

It is not possible to build a gas station in such a place, but in the future, charging piles can also be built in such temporary parking places

5. Basis for the forecast for 2024

Entering 2024, fuel vehicle manufacturers have begun to reduce prices more than ever before. This will continue to be a negative factor for the development of pure electric vehicles.

The negative public opinion on pure electric vehicles formed due to the conflict of interests in the industry may not completely disappear, and some industry authorities have even called for the cognitive confusion that will bring to the market in the future.

At the same time, new positives are beginning to emerge:

• The price reduction of fuel vehicles is a double-edged sword, which not only has a competition and impact on pure electric vehicles, but also completely shatters the myth of artificially manufactured fuel vehicles to maintain their value.
• Almost all automakers around the world have to start showing their all-out attitude to enter the field of new energy vehicles.
• In the past two years, the petrochemical industry has also begun to fully realize that it cannot passively respond to the challenges, and must fully invest in the construction of a charging network for pure electric vehicles. The group of people in the converted industry has begun to shift in an all-round way, which will quickly weaken its resistance to pure electric vehicles.

Although various conflicts of interest have brought great trouble to the development of pure electric vehicles, the general trend of pure electric vehicle development is completely irresistible. After the traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers began to fully enter the field of new energy vehicles, the public opinion on the artificial attack on new energy vehicles will automatically disappear, because not only the traditional car manufacturers can not deny themselves, but also they are already lagging behind.

By the end of 2023, the number of new energy vehicles in the country has reached 20.41 million, accounting for 6.07% of the total number of vehicles. Among them, the number of pure electric vehicles was 15.52 million, accounting for 76.04% of the total number of new energy vehicles. In 2024 and beyond, it is recognized that more than 10 million new energy vehicles will be added every year, which will make the economic benefits of the charging network more and more clear. The popularity of 800V ultra-fast charging, which can replenish the battery to more than 80% in 15 minutes. These rapid advances in batteries, charging technology, and the market will all make the so-called range anxiety disappear quickly, which in turn will lead to faster adoption of battery electric vehicles.

The low price brought about by the abundant supply of lithium carbonate puts the battery cost in a very favorable range.

In 2024, semi-solid-state batteries and sodium-lithium batteries will enter commercial use. Because its proportion is still limited, it may not directly show an obvious actual market impact, but it will firmly establish the market expectation that fuel vehicles will end quickly for the entire market, so that all illusions of resisting the popularization of pure electric vehicles will eventually disappear.

Based on the above more comprehensive analysis of influencing factors, we can more accurately grasp the trend of new energy vehicle development in 2024.

Originally, the intrinsic development momentum of pure electric vehicles should have a growth rate of 100% or more, but considering the impact of the sharp price reduction of fuel vehicles and the difficulty of completely eliminating the artificial negative public opinion on pure electric vehicles, the growth rate of the entire new energy vehicle should be 50%-60%, and the annual sales volume is 14 million to 15 million.

6. Forecast basis for 2025 and 2026

By 2025, no matter how much the price of gasoline vehicles is reduced, it will no longer be possible to compete with pure electric vehicles. Because the interest pattern of traditional fuel vehicles has long been fixed, such a large price reduction will inevitably make this interest pattern quickly and completely disintegrate. Therefore, it will not bring about a fundamental increase in the competitiveness of fuel vehicles, and in fact can only be a short-term inventory clearance behavior. When this inventory clearance is nearing completion, not only are manufacturers unwilling to waste resources on fuel vehicles, but the entire service system will also be quickly withdrawn. Because traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers will completely switch to pure electric vehicles in 2025, the obstacle factors to the price reduction competition of fuel vehicles will be basically eliminated in 2025.

On the other hand, battery prices will further decline in 2025, and pure electric vehicles will not only further improve their cost competitiveness, but also further demonstrate their intelligent performance competitive advantage. This further dismantles the problem of competition among fuel vehicles. The power of the market alone is strong enough to completely crush fuel vehicles.

By the end of 2024, the number of pure electric vehicles will be at least 25 million. By the end of 2025, the number of pure electric vehicles will most likely exceed 50 million. Since then, more than 30 million new pure electric vehicles will be added every year, and the number of pure electric vehicles will exceed 100 million. The economic benefits of the charging network are expected to be very clear, and if the charging network service providers do not go crazy to seize the blank service outlets from now on, there will be no chance in the future. Through the popularization of supercharging in 2024, as well as the construction of charging networks in blank service areas and parking areas. The 50-kilometer coverage of the long-distance charging network (the proportion of sections with charging piles within at least 50 kilometers) will reach 100%, and the coverage rate of 20 kilometers will also reach more than 90%. Due to the further increase in the energy density of the battery, the cruising range will be further increased. By 2025, the above two-way effect will make the so-called range anxiety of pure electric vehicles basically no longer exist in the market, so that the development of pure electric vehicles will enter the last virtuous cycle of energy release.

Therefore, there will be a strong explosive growth of pure electric vehicles in 2025. Not only gasoline vehicles, but also hybrid vehicles will decline significantly. The annual growth rate of pure electric vehicles has once again reached more than 100%, and the total sales (domestic sales of about 25 million units, plus exports of 5 million units) will be around 30 million units.

In 2026, not only will the factors that hinder the full popularization of pure electric vehicles in the market have basically disappeared, but also gas stations and 4S stores for fuel vehicles will begin to close in large numbers, and the range anxiety and daily service problems of fuel vehicles will begin to gradually appear, and will deteriorate rapidly. As a result, domestic sales of ICE vehicles will be reduced to zero, and only a certain amount will be exported. In 2026, hybrid vehicles will also be basically zero, and all new energy vehicles will be unified as pure electric vehicles.

Since then, China's annual new car ownership will be all pure electric vehicles, and the use environment of fuel vehicles will become worse and worse, which will make the stock of fuel vehicles basically zero in 10 years at most. In fact, the zeroing process will be much faster, and the zeroing process of China's 310 million fuel vehicles by the end of 2023 (measured by the decline of the number of vehicles to less than 50 million) is likely to be basically achieved within five years after 2026 (by 2031). The reason why the standard of 50 million was chosen is that after this amount, the remaining holdings cannot exist for more than 3 years.

In the past 100 years, the development of the automobile industry has been carried out according to the growth rate of single digits, at most slightly more than 10%. Because with the growth of automobile sales, it is necessary to invest a large number of overweight assets such as new roads, bridges, tunnels, service areas, gas stations, parking lots, 4S stores, other after-sales service points, and new production facilities, and it is impossible to develop too fast.

Many people still do not understand that the era of pure electric vehicles is completely different from the basic logic and development law, and more than 90% of the resources of the entire ecological environment of pure electric vehicles have been completed in the process of developing fuel vehicles. Compared with the development history of fuel vehicles, it is a triple-digit growth of ultra-light asset investment, which is exactly the same as the development law of the Internet era. If you look back at the pager, after the emergence of new generations of mobile communications, the demise of the old generation of mobile phones, the popularization of the new generation of national X displacement engines, and the avalanche scene of the old generation of displacement engines, you will understand what kind of scene the avalanche death of fuel vehicles is. In the next 5 to 10 years, we will see the avalanche of gasoline vehicles disappear like pagers in the past. All operators and consumers who are slower to escape will be buried by this super avalanche of old technology products in the history of industrial civilization, and no longer have any illusions.

The forecast of the conversion process of new energy vehicles by automobile professional institutions in August 2022 is still based on the thinking of traditional automobile development laws. Although only a little more than 1 year has passed, the deviation from the facts is already obvious. The forecast predicts that the number of new energy vehicles will reach 20 million in 2024, but it will already be reached in 2023. It believes that the number of new energy vehicles will reach 30 million in 2025, and the number of fuel vehicles will peak. However, in 2024, it is almost certain that the number of fuel vehicles will peak and begin the process of avalanche decline, and it is unlikely to be the kind of situation that will decline slowly and continue for a long time. The above forecast predicts that the number of new energy vehicles in 2025 and 2026 will be on the 30 million level, which is obviously impossible. Starting in 2024, the number of new energy vehicles added every year will definitely be more than 10 million, so the number of new energy vehicles will increase by at least 10 million every year, and will soon become more than 20 million or 30 million units.

7. The strategic choice of the Chinese Government

2024 will be a very important and critical year for China's pure electric vehicle development strategy. Because with the end of the epidemic in 2023, the top managers of foreign car companies have come to the China Auto Show. The explosive growth of China's new energy vehicles in the previous three years has fully awakened all foreign car companies, and they have fully invested in the launch of new pure electric vehicles.

In 2023, Volkswagen will deliver 191,800 pure electric vehicles in China alone, an increase of 23.2%. FAW Toyota's sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 187%. In order to buy time for their car companies, Europe and the United States have introduced many measures to restrict China's new energy industry from entering their markets. These measures may not ultimately limit the development of new energy vehicles in China, but they will effectively buy the most valuable time for its car companies.

We must be soberly aware that foreign auto giants have also rapidly changed lanes to pure electric vehicles. China's period of strategic opportunity to overtake through lane change by pure electric vehicles has passed. What is needed in the future is to take advantage of the first-mover advantage in the early stage to rapidly expand the global market share as soon as possible. The size of the global auto market share of domestic automakers in the future will basically be determined between 2024 and 2025. The sooner pure electric domination is achieved, the higher the share of Chinese automakers in the global market in the future. If the number of fuel vehicles can be basically zeroed in by 2025, Chinese automakers may be able to achieve a clear-up lead in the global auto market. But if the development in the past two or three years is not ruthless enough, after 2026, it will face a comprehensive counteroffensive from European, Japanese, American, and South Korean car companies that have been fully awakened. We risk permanently missing out on strategic development opportunities.

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