Text: Qi Qin
The article was first published by Qi Qin Headlines
On January 13 this year, Lai Qingde won the election and successfully succeeded Xiao Cai as the new leader of Taiwan, adding "brilliance" to the green camp.
In the face of the increasingly tense situation in the Taiwan Strait, Lai Qingde's victory also benefited from his extraordinary and arrogant remarks, which changed from "Taiwan independence" to "Taiwan independence," which attracted many neutral people in the light blue camp.
However, no matter how much the political parties in the Taiwan region make a fuss, as far as the mainland is concerned, the will to reunify the two sides of the strait must never be changed, and as for when the reunification will be, the issue must be left to the right time.
In recent years, along with the continuous development of China's economic level and science and technology, the "independence elements" in the Taiwan region have become more and more arrogant, constantly contacting the United States and provoking the mainland, clamoring that "if the mainland carries out 'military reunification,' then the United States will definitely intervene in it and help Taiwan defend the mainland."
On January 26-27, 2024 local time, Wang Yi also met with US Presidential Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, emphasizing the importance of maintaining security in the Taiwan Strait.
As far as the current situation is concerned, will the United States really violate the "one-China" principle and the three Sino-US joint communiques for the sake of Taiwan? If the Taiwan issue really breaks out, will the United States probably intervene in the conflict?
On this issue, many US military experts have expressed unanimous opinions, holding that when the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are reunified, the United States will have the only way to accept the status quo. Why is that?
"Taiwan independence": The United States will definitely support us
On January 22 this year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, released a report stating that the PLA does not have the strength to "reunify" Taiwan by force, and that all the PLA can do is blockade Taiwan, just like the past crises in the Taiwan Strait, and can only achieve a deterrent effect.
"The PLA currently does not have the ability to cross the sea to fight, and we are very safe. ”
Whether it is Xiao Cai or Lai Qingde, the DPP-led green camp has always been courting the United States, creating a momentum of "Taiwan independence" invincible with the support of the United States, and even unleashing wild words, saying that it can prevent the PLA from going out to sea.
Since Biden became US president, he has publicly stated four times that if the mainland takes measures to reunify Taiwan by force, the US will certainly provide "protection" and "support" for Taiwan.
Moreover, he has repeatedly hyped up the Taiwan issue in the international arena, trying to turn this internal affair, which is unacceptable to foreign interference, into an international topic in order to curb China's rise.
In order to give the Taiwan authorities full confidence in the power of the Pacific Police, Biden, like any president, has consolidated and strengthened this good hole card over and over again, resulting in many people in Taiwan bringing out the "pro-American" attributes.
On 23 August last year, after the conclusion of a new round of opinion polls in Taiwan, the Taiwan media said that Taiwan now seems to have been given ecstasy by the United States, and that it will never be able to remember that the mainland has been good to Taiwan in various policies, let alone talk about the issue of cross-strait reunification.
Even if some people can realize that the mainland really wants "one family on both sides of the strait," in the general environment of "pro-US" and "anti-China," many people will choose to paralyze themselves and turn a blind eye to these things.
Whether it is the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) or the Kuomintang, whether it is "Taiwan independence" or "Taiwan independence," the gap in thinking on the Taiwan issue is actually gradually narrowing, and Hou Youyi will at least talk about the "consensus of '92" in his speech, while Ke Wenzhe will not mention it at all, looking like a scoundrel.
Now it is the extreme "Taiwan independence" Lai Ching-te who has come to power, but even if it is not the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that is not leading the Taiwan region, it will not be able to reverse the "pro-US and anti-China" situation in Taiwan.
In recent years, Biden has passed no less than 10 bills on arms sales to Taiwan, continuously sold arms to "Taiwan independence" elements, and even allowed soldiers to illegally enter Taiwan at Tsai Ing-wen's instructions.
Since Tsai Ing-wen first admitted that the US military is stationed in Taiwan in 2021, the number of US troops stationed in Taiwan has continued to increase, but the Taiwan authorities have regarded this as an "honor" and have not shied away from asking US special forces to command the training of the Taiwan military, and also called it a "joint operation".
In the eyes of the "Taiwan independence" elements, the US military's actions are obviously "just," but for many ordinary people, the actions of the Taiwan authorities are obviously pushing Taiwan into a dangerous situation.
On 7 July last year, the results of a public opinion poll in Taiwan showed that under the bubble lies of the Taiwan authorities, many people had high expectations for US "support," believing that in the event of a war between the two sides of the strait, the United States would certainly "support" Taiwan as soon as possible, but as everyone knows, lies can only be lies.
The choice of interest is left behind
In the past, China's strength was not strong, and it was actually very easy for the United States to intervene in the Taiwan issue, because at that time, China really had great difficulties in crossing the sea, and there was no way to confront the United States, but now the People's Liberation Army is obviously different.
At the beginning of this year, Taiwan's foreign affairs department, also known as Taiwan's so-called "Ministry of Foreign Affairs," called on the mainland to respect Lai's election results, saying that the content of the questions and answers released by the mainland on Taiwan's election "does not conform" with international perception and the status quo.
In this regard, Wu Qian, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, said that the election in the Taiwan region is China's local affair, and no matter how the situation on the island changes, it cannot change the basic fact that there is only one China in the world.
"'Taiwan independence' is a dead end, and a few US-made weapons cannot be exchanged for Taiwan's so-called 'security'. Wu Qian emphasized.
"In order to defend national unity and territorial integrity, the Chinese People's Liberation Army has always dared to strike and win. ”
In the face of countless internal contradictions, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the U.S. election, the current Biden administration's policies toward China and Taiwan are actually in a state of vacillation, after all, there are no eternal friends between countries, only eternal interests.
At present, the United States is playing up the "China threat" and confronting China from all angles, sending wrong signals to the "Taiwan independence" forces, and on the other hand, it is trying to improve relations with China, saying that it "adheres to one China."
The reason for such a divisive attitude is that one group in the United States believes that there are huge benefits to be gained from strengthening Sino-US cooperation, and another group believes that confrontation between China and the United States can gain benefits from confrontation.
The Taiwan issue will have to be resolved sooner or later, and when the time comes for cross-strait reunification, what kind of posture will the United States show? Is the development of things really as optimistic as advocated by "Taiwan independence"?
In the eyes of many people, the United States has always shown an arrogant posture as a messenger of justice on the Taiwan issue, and coupled with its Pacific police attributes, it may really intervene militarily in China's internal affairs.
However, referring to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there are not many Americans who think that the United States will intervene militarily in the Taiwan issue, after all, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been fought for so long, and I have not seen any intention of the United States to intervene militarily.
Moreover, the consensus of the international community is that there is only one China in the world, and the US military will intervene in the Taiwan issue, which will be a naked military interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and the Taiwan issue will further escalate into a Sino-US issue.
Huang Zhenghui, former captain of Taiwan's navy, said: "What qualifications do we have to say that the United States will support us? Taiwan is nothing but a pawn of the United States, and we have nothing worth lingering on in the United States." ”
The opposing viewpoint is that China and the United States are both influential countries in the world, and there is absolutely no need for a quarrel over a Taiwan issue, while the United States can completely seek greater interests through consultations, and everything it is doing now is to raise the cost of negotiations for the future.
The US think tank believes that if the mainland really realizes "military reunification," then before that, the only thing the United States can do is to continue to invest "costs" in Taiwan, so as to increase the weight of "Taiwan independence" and make the mainland pay more in the future.
This seems to be the most recognizable statement that Biden's "sending troops to protect Taiwan" and the White House's two attitudes of "one China" can be born after the fact, but many experts believe that the United States actually has a way to go.
Last year, Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Commission's Scowcroft Research Center and Stimson Center's Reimagining American Grand Strategy program, said: "The importance of the Taiwan issue to U.S. strategic security at present has not yet reached the point where the United States is drawn into a major power conflict in order to fully 'defend'." ”
In his view, the interests of the United States in East Asia are very diverse, and Taiwan is only one part of it, and the more important significance is to contain China's development, but it is obviously not a worthwhile choice to confront China with a hard-line attitude.
On the table, the United States has never openly encouraged "Taiwan independence", and the Biden administration has said that it will help Taiwan defend itself against the mainland, but the premise is also the "one China" principle.
Even if the radical hardliners in the United States insist on supporting Taiwan, they will at best adopt the method of "proxy war" rather than military involvement.
The gap between the size of Taiwan and the mainland is too great, and they are isolated in the ocean, and I am afraid that the reunification of the two sides of the strait will have already ended before we can wait for support, and the US support will be meaningless.
Therefore, in the concentrated discussions of dozens of China experts, including Ashford, Andrew Matrick of the Defense Research Institute of the Center for a New American Security, and Mei Huilin, a US military strategy expert on China, they held that the United States at present actually has only one way to go, and that is not to interfere in cross-strait reunification.
In reality, "assisting in the defense of Taiwan" is actually quite difficult to achieve, because for countless Americans, Taiwan is a strange place 10,000 kilometers away, and it is not worth taking the risk at all.
American radio host Coster Houghton said on the program: "The United States is a country that prioritizes interests, and if China and the United States enter a nuclear war, the whole world will be finished." Because Taiwan has a nuclear war? No kidding. ”
Ashford said: "Some people may think that Chinese mainland's constant sending warplanes and warships around the island is an 'invasion', but I think he is just cruising on his own territory." ”
Matthew Kronig said: "In order to maintain its interests in Taiwan, the only thing the United States can do is to increase investment in maintaining the status quo to deter Chinese mainland, not to escalate into Sino-US confrontation." ”
Many people also said that if the day of confrontation over Taiwan really comes, the US military participating in this war will not be respected, and the United States will be reduced to a second-rate country because of losing this war of Chinese faith.
Last June, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it was clearly not in the interests of the United States, and Chinese mainland believed that the United States was decoupling from China, but in fact it was not.
Kangda also added: "Again, we need to add that we support the maintenance of Taiwan's current peaceful and stable status quo and do not support Taiwan's independence." ”
After all, after China and the United States face each other, no matter who loses or wins, in the end they will only end up losing both.