The data collection time of this article is as of 00:00 on January 26
Bond Market Overview //
1. Open Market Operations
On January 25, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 466 billion yuan was carried out in the form of interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%. On the same day, 100 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, so the net investment in a single day was 366 billion yuan. On January 25, the central bank launched the first phase of the central bank bill swap (CBS) operation in 2024, with an operation volume of 5 billion yuan and a term of 3 months. There was a $5 billion CBS expiration on that day.
(*Data source: Wind-Central Bank Dynamic PBOC)
2. Funding side
On Thursday, the interbank market was still tight for most of the time, and the supply was loosened near the end of the session. The seven-day repurchase can just cross the month, and the transaction price has also risen, and the overall pressure is still limited.
Overseas, the latest U.S. overnight financing guarantee rate is 5.31%.
(*Data source: Wind-International Monetary Fund Sentiment Index, Capital Composite Screen)
3. Interbank certificates of deposit
The latest second-level trading volume of one-year interbank certificates of deposit of state-owned and major joint-stock banks was around 2.41%, down 1-2 bps from the previous trading day.
(*Source: Wind-Interbank Certificate of Deposit-Issuance Results)
4. Most of the yields of major interbank interest rate bonds have declined, and short-term bonds have been significantly stronger.
(*Data source: Wind-Transaction Statistics)
5. Recent trend and data of interest rate spreads of various maturities of urban investment bonds (AAA).
(*Source: Wind-Spread Analysis)
6. Treasury bond futures closed mostly higher.
The main 30-year contract fell 0.05%
The main 10-year contract rose 0.12%
The main 5-year contract rose 0.17%
The main 2-year contract rose 0.06%
(*Source: Wind-Treasury Futures)
News //
1. Interpretation of the unexpected RRR cut: CITIC Securities believes that under the guidance of "strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment", the RRR cut may not be the last aggregate operation in this round of monetary easing. Tianfeng Securities believes that there are two special features of this RRR cut. Shenwan Hongyuan said that the RRR cut will release liquidity and open up room for interest rate cuts, and the central bank is expected to move the policy interest rate curve downward.
2. Industry insiders generally believe that the RRR cut and the relending rate cut are at a critical moment to consolidate the economy and stabilize expectations. Recent economic and financial data have generally been better than expected. However, the momentum of economic recovery still needs to be strengthened, and the stock market is expected to fluctuate recently, and the central bank has successively lowered the RRR and lowered the relending rate and rediscount interest rates for small rural support, reflecting the determination of the policy to stabilize the economy, stabilize the market and stabilize expectations.
3. In January, listed companies have issued 170 bonds, raising 232.422 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the same period last year. With the support of policies, the bond financing of listed companies is still expected to increase this year, providing more high-quality targets for bond market investment.
Global Macro //
1. The U.S. Department of Commerce will release the preliminary reading of GDP for the fourth quarter of last year on Thursday. Wall Street forecasts show that US GDP growth may fall back to 2% last quarter. However, as the Fed's rate hike cycle draws to a close, the debate over whether the expected growth inflection point will result in a soft landing or a recession continues, and this could ultimately be a key factor in the path of interest rates.
2. The Federal Reserve raises the interest rate on the Emergency Lending Program to stop arbitrage, effective immediately, the new Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP) lending rate is "not lower" than the reserve rate, and the BTFB will end on March 11, and the banking sector can still meet liquidity needs through the discount window.
Bond Events //
1. Aonong Biotech: As of January 23, the total amount of overdue debt principal and interest in financial institutions was about 319 million yuan
2. Qingdao Shiyuan: The company failed to pay off its debts as they fell due
3. Zhenro Real Estate: Participating creditors holding more than 79% of the existing debt have joined the restructuring support agreement
4. Zongyang Investment and Development: Deputy General Manager Qian Zhizhong was investigated
A summary of negative bond events for the week
(*Source: Wind-Negative Bond Events)
This month, the risk of non-standard assets of urban investment and the overdue commercial bills
There is no risk of non-standard assets this month
(*Source: Wind-Risk Monitoring)
Upcoming Programs //
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『Wind新洞察:固收实务指南』
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