The quietest transfer window ever!Why did the club refuse to spend this January?
This month, fans of blockbuster deals have been disappointed as clubs across Europe struggle to fund such transfers
Since the transfer window opened in early January, tumbleweeds have swept across Europe. Even in the Premier League, where clubs usually splurge without thinking about the consequences, radio broadcasts are almost silent.
Ironically, given the criticism Daniel Levy has received in the past for tightening his wallet, it is actually Tottenham Hotspur who currently leads the spending charts. But even then, they barely pushed the ship out, leased Timo Werner and paid Genoa £21.5 million ($27.4 million) and a surcharge of £5.2 million ($6.6 million) for Radu Dragusísin's services.
They have also been linked with the transfer of Chelsea's Conor Gallagher, but seem to have scoffed at it for financial reasons – echoing a broader trend of financial restrictions imposed by clubs across the continent in January this year.
The question everyone is talking about is: where have all the spenders gone? This time last year, Chelsea had already paid £89 million ($113 million) for Mykhailo Mudryk, Liverpool bought Cody Gakpo, and struggling clubs such as Bournemouth and Leeds United were busy.
Big payouts catch up with everyone
To a large extent, the European club's fine spending this month is a direct result of previous big spending. Due to the Premier League's dominance in terms of broadcast rights and commercial revenue, they are usually the ones who blow the starting horn on the transfer carousel.
The record for summer spending in the English top flight has been broken twice in the past two summers. By 2022, 20 clubs will pay out almost £2 billion ($2.5 billion). This summer, that record was broken again, with spending reaching a staggering £2.4 billion ($3 billion).
Even if soaring revenues have offset this effect to some extent, in a post-pandemic world, the Premier League is – rudely – depleted of funds. While the first dominoes refuse to fall, the rest of Europe – which can only dream of paying England's required wages and transfer fees – is struggling to raise enough money to increase the money they need.
Everton's worries after the points deduction
Of course, in the past, Premier League clubs may have gone beyond their means in order to further their pursuit of economic growth, such as playing in the Champions League or relegation.
But with the UK government threatening to bring in an independent football regulator to sabotage the event, the Premier League is finally starting to show its teeth when it comes to financial regulation. Everton found out about this back in November, when they were shocked by an unprecedented 10 points for breaching profit and sustainability rules.
The Toffees – who have since been charged with a second similar crime – are not the only club concerned about economic overreach. Nottingham Forest are also awaiting penalties for breaching profit and sustainability regulations, while Manchester City are currently facing 115 charges – although a verdict in the case is not expected soon.
The incidents have kept other teams in the Premier League on high alert, with Newcastle chief executive Darren Ears saying earlier this month in a worrying £73.4 million ($93.5 million) annual loss: "The reality is that Everton's verdict suggests, 'I think it's probably something that a lot of people in the Premier League are concerned about, because it's a real thing.'" ”
Profit and sustainability rules stipulate that clubs must not lose more than £105 million ($133.8 million) over a three-year period. Chelsea's net spending over the past five years has been close to £700 million ($892 million), so it doesn't take a rainman's mathematical genius to understand why Premier League clubs are so keen to rein in spending.
Across Europe, there are countless clubs that are having similar trouble in their own leagues. Barcelona, for example, appears to have run out of "leverage" to ease the economic conflict, while Champions League finalists Inter Milan are reported to be around £700 million ($900 million) in debt.
The Saudi money switch is temporarily closed
With Europe locked in an economic gridlock, the club may be hoping that Saudi Arabia can push things forward and make a game-changing transfer spree, as they did in the summer. Steven Gerrard's Al-Ettifaq had raised that hope in December last year, when he publicly pleaded with the club's owners to invest after a poor start to the season.
'We need to show in this window, as well as in the summer window, that we are serious and that we want to be competitive in the top flight and not where we are at the moment,' Gerrard said after his side's winless streak. The match against Al Nasr was extended to eight matches. 'We want to be able to make big changes to the team and the squad. Hopefully at the end of January you'll see a different, stronger, more competitive team. ”
However, despite Jordan Henderson's high-profile departure from Dammam this month, Al Etifaq has been surprisingly quiet in the transfer market, echoing the overall trend in the Saudi Pro League. There are several reasons for this.
First of all, SPL clubs are currently only allowed to add eight foreign players to their squad. At the end of all summer transfer events, the vast majority of places – especially the four state-owned teams that spend the most money – were occupied. Al Hilal even had to get creative and sign Renan Lodi from Marseille to remove the injured Neymar from the squad so that he could join the team for the rest of the season.
Saudi Pro League teams are understood to be gearing up for another big summer, when Premier League stars such as Casemiro and Mohamed Salah may be more willing to give up their European careers. That being said, Henderson's swift exit – and reports that other players such as Aymeric Laporte and Karim Benzema are struggling to settle in the country – threatens to derail the sport before it has had a chance to play normally.
Lack of choice
Returning to European shores, the lack of transfer activity can also be explained by factors other than the financial floor, such as the lack of suitable players available for traditional big-ticket signings. Although Mikel Arteta has publicly stated that he is happy with his attacking options, it is clear that Arsenal will be more than willing to recruit a striker if given the opportunity. Chelsea are also looking for a centre-forward.
Ivan Toney is at the top of their list, but he's simply out of reach. The lack of a quality no.9 on the market means Brentford are in a particularly strong position in the negotiations, with the Bees reportedly having a £100 million ($127 million) price tag for him. Napoli have similarly recognised the value of Viktor Osimhen and have protected their valuable assets with a release clause believed to be worth more than £100 million.
In Spain, Barcelona wanted a midfielder, but it proved almost impossible to find talent within their current spending power. Meanwhile, Paris Saint-Germain, the transfer market dominant, are struggling to find the right left-back to replace the injury-prone Nuno Mendes, who signed Brazilian youngster Lucas Berardo for just €20 million (£17 million / $21.8 million) at the start of the season.
Why take the risk?
Even in the bottom teams of the Premier League, clubs usually try to get out of trouble by spending money due to the wealth that can be brought by the next season, but things are surprisingly quiet.
Privately, Sheffield United – who have only signed Ben Blearton-Diaz on loan from Villarreal – may feel that this major investment that could tip the club into financial jeopardy is not worth it given their slim prospects of relegation. Luton and Burnley have also opted for financial caution.
In the case of the Hatters, last season's promotion was far beyond what was planned. With the new stadium built and their trusting manager Rob Edwards at the helm, Luton Town are likely to see this rare season of Premier League revenue as a surprise but welcome bonus.
Burnley are in a similar situation, with Vincent Kompany proving himself to be an excellent second-tier manager last season. This is not to say that these clubs are not trying to be competitive; All three are still likely to survive this decline, and if they can do so, they will reap the benefits of not panic buying this January.
Free transfers are coming
Then, when the summer transfer window is no longer crowded and easier to handle, the contracts of a large number of top stars are about to expire. At the top of the list is Kylian Mbappe, who, after years of enticing speculation, finally looks set to leave PSG when his current contract expires at the end of the season.
The French champions are still hoping to sign him to another contract, with president Nasser Al-Khelaifi insisting the pair have a "gentleman's agreement", but the prospect of signing one of the best players in the world means both Real Madrid and Liverpool can be alike. January will be quiet to be able to attract the French superstar to sign in June.
A large number of other top market talent will also enter the final year of contracts in the summer. Most of them play for Bayern Munich, much to Harry Kane's frustration, with Leroy Sane, Joshua Kimmich, Alphonso Davies and Thomas Muller all yet to commit to their future beyond 2025.
Liverpool legend Mohamed Salah, Manchester City star Kevin De Bruyne and Juventus star Federico Chiesa are all in the same boat, along with Son Heung-min, the aforementioned Toney and Gio Reina, among others.
In recent years, elite players – with the obvious exception of Chelsea's team of young stars – have taken their futures into their own hands by delaying the signing of long-term contracts. The benefits of this are clear: by eliminating the need for clubs to pay transfer fees, they have more teams to choose from. The hefty signing fee that they and their representatives can earn is another plus.
The club may just be adapting to this new reality. Why spend time and money negotiating traditional transfers when players may be willing to wait until their contracts expire?
There is still time for things to change
All of the above doesn't mean the January transfer window is sure to be a damp squib, though. As at this time of year, it only takes one or two moves to get the entire market alive, and there's still time for some noteworthy trades.
Perhaps Crystal Palace will be shocked by their recent poor performances and thus buy Eddie Nketiah to provide Arsenal with the funds to chase the striker. Or Chelsea may decide to let a homegrown star out of the nest to balance the books.
It should be said that a series of blockbuster loans have also appeared in January this year. Jadon Sancho's return to Borussia Dortmund is an exciting thing, as is the prospect of Kalvin Phillips finally getting playing time after his move to West Ham United. Gio Reyna could also end up in the Premier League with Nottingham Forest, although other clubs are still interested in the American midfielder.
But in reality, anyone expecting an internet transfer before the end of the month may be disappointed.