This title speaks for me.
I'm sure a bunch of people in the comment section are going to start going crazy with diss.
Don't you know what is pessimistic? If our income does not grow, do we not want to consume, we have no money to spend?
There are also repeated bailouts, you can see the effect, the effect is not great.
By the way, the birth rate data is out, you look at the negative growth, and then look at the total number of houses now.
In the future, there will definitely be a large number of vacant houses, and no one will live in them, so what will it rise?
Look at A-shares again, okay, okay, don't look at it, don't look at it.
All of the above sensations, indeed, are correct.
Human beings are first and foremost emotional animals, and emotions must be paid attention to, after all, emotions affect your behavior and actions.
I understand everyone's emotions, but I still want to be a little out of place and say something uplifting.
It's not to force you to watch, but at least it can help you put aside your pessimism and get back to your original intention.
Don't you want to buy a house?
Yesterday I chatted with the company's post-00s, I asked her if you don't want to buy a house, she was stunned for a moment, did not answer me directly, I said if you have 10 million now.
She thought for a moment and said, "I should think so."
She used the right words, and she used the should, because she couldn't think of a reason to buy a house in the short term.
But the 30-year-old Lao Zhang next door gave me the answer directly, giving me 10 million, he wanted to change a bigger house for his wife and children.
Therefore, I think that buying a house is not a question of whether you want to or not, but whether you can do it.
You might as well ask yourself, don't you want to buy your own house and no longer have to move every once in a while?
If you live in 2 bedrooms and don't want to change to a larger house, it is best to put a tea set on the balcony and a cloakroom in the room?
I saw some comments in the peer comment section, maybe I can share them with everyone.
It can be seen that when it comes to buying a house, you think, all you hesitate about is whether you can afford it?
If you want to empty 6 wallets, take on a 30-year mortgage, and then have an unknown income, you don't dare.
Because housing prices have fallen in recent years, many people have cut off their mortgages or sold their houses, but everyone knows one thing:
The house is innocent.
Except for the unfinished, I don't think many people will say that there is a problem with the house, and everyone is just trapped because they bought the house at a high price.
It's not the house that's wrong, it's that you're over-indebted.
Housing prices are falling, the monthly payment is not up, how to look at the house is not pleasing to the eye, believe it or not, a rise can solve a thousand sorrows.
In fact, in the past two years, I think that real estate has just broken everyone's beliefs, and the logic behind it is the economic cycle.
When the economy was developing rapidly, various sunrise industries continued to emerge, and e-commerce, Internet, and live broadcast outlets all offered very high salaries, and everyone's income was rising at that time.
I am full of confidence in the future, so I will buy and buy, and my assets are constantly leveraged.
But now in the economic downturn, many people can't stand it.
In fact, in such a bad world, our country's growth rate is already very bright.
Everyone's experience is so bad, just because they are used to high-speed development.
It's like eating a few meals of roast goose every day.
But you are much better than someone who eats coarse chaff, and a lot of misery is only the result of comparison.
In the past, we rose so hard, and now it is too normal for the labor pains to adjust for 2-3 years.
As I said before, if you don't have cash flow pressure, what are you panicking about, what are you pessimistic?
If you take over at a high level and happen to be tight on cash flow, I can only say that you can find a way to reduce your debt and revitalize your cash flow first.
Because I don't think this round of labor pain will last long, and judging from the attitude of the current patriarchs, they will not let this situation continue.
Again, we are a developing country, and we do not have a sound system and industry like developed countries.
They can make money with money, and we have to exchange resources and labor for money.
If we want to develop into a developed country, it must be to make a breakthrough in the industry, and when the time comes, everyone's income will also increase, and the standard of living will also improve.
At this time, as I said, if the income problem is solved, there are naturally people who are willing to buy a house.
So I have always thought that the main task this year is the economy, as long as the economy is good and the income increases, I am naturally willing to buy, buy, buy.
Behind everyone's bearish property market, it is actually bearish on our JJ, but no matter how you look at it, I don't think so.
In the long run, the economy will inevitably develop upward, and the income problem will inevitably be solved.
But for the short term of 2-3 years, I have some heartfelt advice.
First of all, money has to be saved, but not just money.
Because it is impossible to make you rich by saving money, you cannot become rich by saving money.
So why save money, because saving money is to protect your basic living expenses, and as I said, you won't cut off your supply in times of crisis.
Secondly, you still have to be able to invest.
This year has been determined to be the year of the big release, the speed of money depreciation is being frantically eaten up by 10% compound interest, if you only know how to blindly save money, you can only watch a large amount of cash depreciate.
When you save money and wait until a certain extent, you have to invest in high-quality assets and let the money make money.
The last thing is to enjoy the retirement life, and now many people feel that they simply lie down and have fun in time.
I think we still have to think about the second half of our lives, many people don't make money when they are young, and when they want to enjoy themselves in old age, because they have no money, they have to work as hard as young people to make money.
The best way to provide for the elderly must be: holding money in one hand and high-quality assets in the other, so that you will have a more decent life after the age of 65.
As for other investments, I don't recommend you fooling around.
Some time ago, Ding Yifeng had a thunderstorm, and someone actually mortgaged the house to buy Ding Yifeng, and this kind of high-yield financial management really has to be very careful.
I think the most basic financial management is to have a set of high-quality assets in first- and second-tier cities, hold them patiently, and be a long-termist.
It's going to be fine.
These three words don't seem to be very convincing now, after all, as far as the eye can see, they are all miserable.
But if you take 10,000 steps back, it is precisely because of the misery that you are extremely determined to save.
Last year, we saw a lot of one-day trips to rescue policies, or squeezing toothpaste, but from the fourth quarter of last year to January this year, from the slogan to the landing, the attitude was very resolute.
Although it is necessary to save it, everyone has to give up the house, as in the past, it will double and rise.
But don't believe that tomorrow will come.
After all, China's housing prices fell by 34%, which is the limit of the financial system, because the down payment ratio is now 30%, do you think we can accept the risk of the limit being breached?
Therefore, salvation is certain, where you can be saved, where you can lie down completely, this is the test of you.
Having said so much, I actually want to tell you that the logic of family asset allocation has changed.
Can house prices go up?
Yes, but the probability of a big rise is very low, not that there is none, but the probability is low.
I can only say that everyone wants to get rich overnight, but please recognize the facts, the time has come to make slow money.
How long does it take to get up?
I don't know, so I said, to ensure your cash flow, don't go into debt beyond your ability.
No one wants to fall on the eve of a big rise, and no one wants to earn the last copper plate, the key is to understand the underlying logic and trend.
How do you choose the right one? That's another dimension of cognition.
What is the underlying logic of making money?
It is to find the right time and subject matter in each economic cycle to make a long-term and short-term family asset allocation.
Salary income can only cover expenses, and it will not allow you to retire in peace.
I've looked at the people who have made a lot of money and made a family class jump several times in the past.
In fact, it is to seize the opportunity under every economic cycle.
A-shares in 2005-2007, houses in 2008 and 2014, these are no skills, they are opportunities.
There are others, which is to seize every opportunity in the tuyere industry.
For example, the tide of the sea after 1978, the Internet in 2003, the Internet wave in 2012, and Douyin in 2019.
These rely not only on opportunities, but also on their own to enter the game.
So I've been giving everyone a psychological massage, pessimism can understand, if you are a bar, you are right.
But only by being optimistic, understanding the underlying logic, and the intention of the Dragon King to release water this year, can we seize every signal and live a more nourishing life.
Appropriate pessimism can warn of risks, and excessive pessimism will only lead to lost opportunities.
However, I still say that the future property market is not necessarily two-sided, not all up, not all down.
Don't believe those who simply say up and down, and have the ability to judge for yourself.
Seize the small opportunities of the megatrends and protect your family wealth.