Latest news: In 2023, China will have 9.02 million births, a birth rate of 6.39 per thousand, 11.1 million deaths, a mortality rate of 7.87 per thousand, and a natural population growth rate of -1.48 per thousand.
One increase and one decrease, 2.08 million people, this is the number of people in China who will decrease in 2023.
In 2022, this number is 850,000, and it is clear that the negative population growth is more violent than we imagined.
In the case of negative population growth, once the bow is opened, there is no turning back.
The only thing that is a little consoling is probably a little better than the 8 million mentioned by various folk data.
I know that as soon as the population data came out, all kinds of people looked at Airbus as if they had got the biggest argument, desperately trying to argue that the era of houses was coming.
Is it like a green onion, or like gold.
Let's talk.
Negative population growth corresponds to the differentiation of the property market.
Some houses are so expensive that ordinary people can't afford them, and some houses are so cheap that no one wants them to give them away.
That's the truth.
You can take a look at Japan and South Korea, people have entered the era of negative population growth faster than us, but housing prices do not mean that they will not rise.
The rise and fall of housing prices, corresponding to prices, is essentially a monetary phenomenon, which does not follow the logic of population decline.
Only the majority of daily necessities will be directly affected by population decline.
For example, diapers, baby food, these tracks will either roll or die in the future.
In the future, diapers for the elderly will be more sought-after than diapers for babies.
If I had to summarize the depopulation incident, it would probably be:
Aggregate demand will decrease, but it will push all industries into involution, and those who have the opportunity to stay will eat more of the cake.
And this applies to most industries.
The same is true for the real estate industry, Evergrande Country Garden, which used to focus on third- and fourth-tier cities, although it began to re-focus on first- and second-tier cities a few years ago, but it is still slow.
This round of shuffling was directly shot on the beach.
I remember when the data came out in 2022 and our country officially entered negative growth, there was a cheer on the Internet.
I don't understand, do you really think that when the population decreases, there will be more funds per capita?
Wrong.
You may face the closure of kindergartens and primary schools, and there are also some industries whose products cannot be rolled up by others, so they can only stop production.
Industrial reform, wealth distribution and demographic structure are deeply linked.
Now that the demographic structure has changed, you say that the first two changes will not change?
Our country's pension system is pay-as-you-go, and the pension paid by young people will be used to pay for the pension of the elderly.
The decrease in the number of births, the growth of the elderly, and the shortage of pensions will definitely appear at some point in time.
As a result, fiscal pressures will increase, forcing us to transition to higher productivity.
Either the same labor force + more labor time input;
Either efficient labor + labor time input;
That is, you want to keep up with the standard of living after demographic adjustment, either by working longer hours or being more productive.
Either way, it's a test for all industries right now, so I really don't understand what everyone is cheering for.
Under the general environment of population decline, it is necessary to let these stock population to support consumption and investment.
Then you have to let this group of people have money in their pockets, either to increase the remuneration of labor or to increase the value of assets.
There is also the implementation of the basic security system, so that everyone has money and dares to spend.
I'm sure we're already doing a lot of preparations, but what about us personally?
It doesn't matter if you are a business owner, a self-employed owner, or an ordinary brick movers.
You should all understand that behind the demographic change is a re-change in the distribution of wealth in the whole society.
If you are a business, you need to re-examine the competitiveness of your own products and whether they have enough advantages.
In the face of demographic changes, can you continue to grow your business? Or even eat someone else's cake?
If you were an individual, was the industry you were in now up or down?
Even if you are a public institution in a third- or fourth-tier city, you must also think, is it really still an iron rice bowl?
Finally, you also have to consider whether your family's wealth, your family's assets, is in a safe enough city.
Under the decline of the total population, the trend of population flow, and the allocation of your family's assets, have you made a good layout in advance?
Population decline is the general trend, and it is a common trend all over the world, and we are not alone.
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Again, as I said above, behind the demographic structure is the differentiation of the property market.
This is not a new perspective, but the divergence may go even further and deeper in the future.
In the past, we only understood that the division between cities, for example, houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen would be more expensive, and houses in third- and fourth-tier cities would be cheaper.
But in fact, the differentiation is also extremely sharp internally, and the difference between old houses and new houses in the suburbs of first-tier cities will also be very large.
The suburbs of first-tier cities are not outperforming the core areas of second-tier cities, and this trend is likely to be even bigger.
Especially driven by the new housing reform.
As I said above, in the next time the demographic structure changes, the consumption and investment of the stock population is the most important.
You look at the new housing reform, the old urban villages in megacities, and the construction of affordable housing in big cities.
In fact, it is all about implementing this matter.
Whether it is old renovation or affordable housing, it is a way for big cities to grab population, so that people can stay and live in a house.
If this is true in big cities, it will be even more difficult in smaller cities.
In the past 40 years of market economy, first- and second-tier cities have experienced a round of measures to compete for talents, such as college degree or above, such as a variety of millions of talents to settle in rewards.
Of course, quality talent is scarce in any era.
However, most cities will transition from competing for talents to grabbing population, which is one of the reasons why the new housing reform came out at this moment.
In the future, affordable housing and commercial housing will exist simultaneously in big cities, and you say that the internal market will also be extremely differentiated.
The wealthy few will always grab the few high-quality assets in the city.
Most suburbs and old houses will be impacted by affordable housing.
The internal differentiation between cities will also become more dramatic.
Therefore, whether the house is like a green onion or like gold is not an AB multiple-choice question, but an option for coexistence.
The test is for everyone who does the multiple-choice question, whether to choose A or B.
Population is more than just a statistical statistic number for a city.
More figuratively, when a person works, spends, marries and has children in the city, he essentially contributes to the city's GDP.
So people, in fact, are money.
If population growth continues to be negative, then we will continue to see a trend of decreasing population in individual cities in the coming decades.
The disappearance of the countryside and the withering of the cities will have a great impact on the region and the city.
For any city, a declining population and an aging population are a huge challenge.
And people are developed by climbing on the development of the city.
The accumulation of job opportunities, income, and family wealth follows the fortunes of the country at best, the city in the middle, and the direction you choose from yourself.
So guys, now you have another chance to choose.
The data is out, but it's not just the demographic data, I'll share other data in my follow-up articles.
If you can't wait, you can also listen to it in my closed-door live broadcast.
In the past few days, I have seen that another expert is making some suggestions for increasing the birth rate of the population.
I also see many people who still blame the root cause of their reluctance to have children on high housing prices.
But perhaps only truly fertile families know that high housing prices are only one of them, not fundamental.
The spread of higher education, the increase in the cost of childbirth and childcare, and the sense of security in the workplace are all problems.
In the future, we may see more policies to encourage childbearing.
Although we know that population decline is avoidable, for ordinary people, it is important to see clearly and be prepared.