Can the Shanghai Composite Index regain 2,900 points!

On January 25, the market continued to rally throughout the day. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.45%.

Today, on the whole, stocks rose more or fell less, with more than 4,800 stocks rising in the whole market, and more than 100 stocks rising or rising by more than 10%. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 891.5 billion yuan, an increase of 124.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Northbound funds bought a net of 6.294 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net purchase of 4.834 billion yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net purchase of 1.459 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Interviewees believe that today's sharp rise is due to the improvement in fundamentals and technicals. However, the closing of A-shares for three consecutive days does not mean that the macro fundamentals have changed qualitatively, and the sentiment of shareholders is prone to excessive pessimism or optimism. For this week's wide range of ups and downs, it is recommended that investors look at it rationally. In the short term, it is still not ruled out that some investors may take profits and hold currencies for the holidays.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 3%

On Thursday, the three major A-share stock indexes opened mixed, and then the Shanghai Composite Index rose rapidly under the pull of the "medium" prefix stocks. Throughout the day, A-shares achieved a big explosion, the three major indexes rebounded sharply, and the Shanghai Composite Index regained the 2,900-point mark.

On the disk, all 31 Shenwan first-class industries are red. The three major industry sectors such as petroleum and petrochemical, real estate, and building decoration rose by more than 5%, social services, national defense and military industry, environmental protection, communications and other industry sectors rose by more than 4%, and trade and retail, steel, media and other industry sectors followed suit.

The petroleum and petrochemical sector led the gains with a gain of 5.66%. Among them, PetroChina achieved the first daily limit since July 2015. In addition, Sinopec, Zhongman Petroleum, Xinchao Energy, PetroChina Engineering and other stocks rose more than 7%.

The real estate sector rose intraday, closing up 5.39%. In the sector, Everbright Jiabao, Jingneng Real Estate, New Huangpu, Zhonghua Enterprises, Yatong Co., Ltd. and other shares have achieved daily limits.

On the evening of January 24, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration jointly issued the Notice on the Management of Operating Property Loans (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). For the first time, the supervision clarified the business of commercial banks' operating property loans, clarified the definition of operating property loans, and expanded the scope of commercial real estate.

In terms of concept stocks, the top stocks in China broke out collectively, and the tide of price limits in the sector was wildly set off. In addition to PetroChina, China Textile Standard, China Railway Assembly, China Unicom, China Communications Construction, China Pharmaceutical and other more than 20 shares have a daily limit.

In terms of news, on January 24, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said that it would further study the inclusion of market value management in the performance appraisal of the heads of central enterprises. In the early stage, the central enterprises have been promoted to incorporate the value realization of listed companies into the performance evaluation system of listed companies, on this basis, the market value management effectiveness will be included in the assessment of the person in charge of the central enterprise, and the person in charge of the central enterprise will pay more attention to the market performance of the listed company under its control, and timely convey confidence and stabilize expectations through the application of market-oriented means such as increasing holdings and repurchases, increasing cash dividends and better rewarding investors.

Why did the market soar

"Today's surge is due to a number of factors. Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund, told reporters that there are two main reasons for this:

First, it has benefited from the boost in fundamentals. After yesterday's close, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio more than expected, and the policy side further clarified the concerns of investors and stabilized investor confidence. After overnight digestion, there was no high opening and low this morning, but repeated shocks and then higher, indicating that the pessimistic bearish power was further digested.

Second, there are many hot spots in the intraday, which means that multiple funds have begun to flow back. The broad-based index with the highest increase is the CSI 1000, and the large varieties are still strong, and PetroChina has a rare daily limit. At the same time, in the case of the decline in the RMB exchange rate, the northbound capital has returned sharply.

Regarding the reasons for today's sharp rise, Zheng Yanxin, fund manager of Quanjing Fund FOF, said in an interview with the reporter of "International Financial News" that on the one hand, today's sharp rise may be the market feedback from the continuous fermentation of many favorable policies and the release of the unexpected RRR reduction policy. On the other hand, it is rumored that the second round of concentrated knock-in of snowball products has taken place, and the short selling pressure has been relatively fully released.

Zheng Yanxin further pointed out that from the perspective of market performance, today's "Zhongzitou" concept stocks lead the market to a strong upward trend, which to a certain extent reflects the market's recognition and expectation of the high-level management of the recent reform of performance evaluation of central enterprises. At the same time, the high opening of real estate concept stocks also reflects the restoration of confidence in the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and risk prevention and resolution.

The sharp rise in A-shares is due to the improvement in fundamentals and technicals. Chen Jiande, general manager of Tianlang Assets, believes that fundamentally, various ministries and commissions have recently introduced some effective policy measures to effectively enhance the confidence of the market. On the technical side, after last week and this week's rapid killing, panic selling has emerged, and the risk release is relatively sufficient.

Hu Mohan, manager of Mingze Investment Fund, also pointed out that the reason for today's surge is mainly due to the recent resonance of multiple positive factors, and investor sentiment has rebounded significantly. At the same time, the strong performance of the China Special Valuation sector is the main driving force for the rise of the index.

Whether the rally can be sustained

"After three consecutive days of rising, the establishment of the bottom may be confirmed on the technical side. Xia Fengguang told reporters that in order to confirm the real bottom of the market, more signs of capital return need to be seen before the market extends further. At the same time, whether the hot spots of the plate can be further smoothly switched and rotated is also a key to the in-depth development of the market.

"Personally, I believe that the closing of A-shares for three consecutive days does not mean that the macro fundamentals have undergone a qualitative change, and the sentiment of shareholders is easy to be overly pessimistic or overly optimistic. Zheng Yanxin told reporters that for this week's wide range of ups and downs, it is recommended that investors look at it rationally. In the short term, it is still not ruled out that some investors may take profits and hold currencies for the holidays.

However, in the medium and long term, Zheng Yanxin said that he still maintains an optimistic and cautious view of the market outlook. First, the belief that China's economic fundamentals are good for a long time remains unchanged, and the economic fundamentals are expected to continue to repair and market confidence is expected to gradually return; secondly, we need to firmly believe in the most simple underlying logic of value return, the current valuation level of A-shares is still not high, and many outstanding companies have not stagnated because of the decline in stock market value; finally, as an investor, build a suitable investment framework, focus on asset quality itself, and strive to be fearless of short-term ups and downs, and have a basis for advancing and retreating, or more valuable than frequently predicting the market.

Looking forward to the market outlook, Tong Diyi, general manager of Longying Fuze Assets, said that the market is likely to come out of the general trend of shock and upward movement. From the perspective of valuation, whether it is horizontal or vertical comparison, A-shares have a large margin of safety. At the same time, the current policy is proactive, and liquidity remains abundant. As the tightening policies in Europe and the United States reach an inflection point, the repression from the outside will also tend to be lifted.

Hu Mohan said that judging from the current market performance, the market has continuously closed out the volume of Changyang, building a clear bottom structure. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite Index rose to a new high today, and the A-share market is likely to have reversed the trend. The long-term bull of the A-share market may really start to set sail from 2024, and the absolute return in 2024 may be determined.

In terms of market outlook, Hu Mohan believes that the follow-up market is mainly worried about the landing of the 2023 annual report. Due to the poor overall performance of the phased economic environment, it is expected that the performance of enterprises in 2023 will be under pressure with a high probability, and there may be a phased decline due to this impact, but it is not expected to change the overall upward trend.

Reporter: Lu Yiwen

Editor: Chen Si

Editor in charge: Bi Dandan

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#cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 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rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 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