滬指收複2900點！反彈能否持續？

1月25日，市場全天延續反彈。截至收盤，滬指漲3.03%，深成指漲2%，創業闆指漲1.45%。

今日總體上個股漲多跌少，全市場超4800隻個股上漲，超百股漲停或漲超10%。滬深兩市成交額8915億元，較上個交易日放量1246億元。北向資金全天淨買入62.94億元，其中滬股通淨買入48.34億元，深股通淨買入14.59億元。

受訪人士認為，今日的大漲緣于基本面和技術面上的改善。不過，A股連續三天收陽，并不代表宏觀基本面發生質變，股民情緒很容易出現過度悲觀或過度樂觀。對于本周的寬幅漲跌，建議投資者理性看待。短期來看，仍不排除部分投資者獲利止盈、持币過節的可能。

滬指漲超3%

周四，A股三大股指開盤漲跌互現，而後在“中”字頭股票的拉動下滬指快速上攻。全天來看，A股實作大爆發，三大指數大幅反彈，滬指更是收複2900點關口。

盤面上，31個申萬一級行業全部飄紅。石油石化、房地産、建築裝飾等三大行業闆塊漲超5%，社會服務、國防軍工、環保、通信等行業闆塊漲超4%，商貿零售、鋼鐵、傳媒等行業闆塊跟漲。

石油石化闆塊以5.66%的漲幅領漲。其中，中國石油實作了自2015年7月以來的首次漲停。此外，中國石化、中曼石油、新潮能源、中油工程等多股漲超7%。

房地産闆塊盤中拉升，收漲5.39%。闆塊内光大嘉寶、京能置業、新黃浦、中華企業、亞通股份等多股實作漲停。

消息面上，1月24日晚間，中國人民銀行與國家金融監督管理總局聯合印發《關于做好經營性物業貸款管理的通知》（下稱《通知》）。監管首次對商業銀行經營性物業貸款業務進行明确，明确經營性物業貸款的定義，并将商業性房地産範疇擴圍；同時，明确貸款額度和貸款期限等内容，拓寬資金用途，擴大經營性物業貸款使用範圍。

概念股方面，中字頭個股集體爆發，闆塊内狂掀漲停潮。除了中國石油外，中紡标、中鐵裝配、中國聯通、中國交建、中國醫藥等超20股漲停。

消息方面，1月24日，國資委稱，将進一步研究将市值管理納入中央企業負責人業績考核。前期，已經推動央企把上市公司的價值實作相關名額納入到上市公司的績效評價體系中，在此基礎上，将把市值管理成效納入對中央企業負責人的考核，引導中央企業負責人更加重視所控股上市公司的市場表現，及時通過應用市場化增持、回購等手段傳遞信心、穩定預期，加大現金分紅力度，更好地回報投資者。

市場緣何大漲

“今天大漲是多方面因素促成的。”融智投資基金經理夏風光向記者表示，具體來看主要包括以下兩方面原因：

一是受益于基本面提振。昨日收盤後央行超預期降準，以及政策面進一步明确打消了投資人的顧慮，穩定了投資者信心。經過隔夜消化後，今早并沒有出現高開低走，而是震蕩反複之後再走高，表明悲觀看空的力量進一步被消化。

二是盤中熱點多，意味着多路資金開始回流。漲幅最高的寬基指數是中證1000，大品種強勢依舊，中石油出現了罕見的漲停。同時，在人民币匯率出現回落的情況下，北上資金大幅回流。

關于今日大漲的原因，铨景基金FOF基金經理鄭彥欣在接受《國際金融報》記者采訪時表示，一方面，今日大漲或是諸多政策利好持續發酵以及超預期降準政策釋出的市場回報。另一方面，據傳雪球産品第二輪集中敲入已經發生，空頭抛壓此前已得到比較充分的釋放。

鄭彥欣進一步指出，從市場表現來看，今日“中字頭”概念股引領大盤強勢上攻，在一定程度上反映出市場對高層近來的有關央企績效評價改革的認可和期待。同時，房地産概念股的高開高走，也反映出對房地産市場平穩健康發展及風險防範化解的信心修複。

A股大漲緣于基本面和技術面上的改善。天朗資産總經理陳建德分析認為，基本面上，近期各部委陸續出台一些有效的政策舉措，有力地提升市場的信心。技術面上，經過上周和這周的快速殺跌，恐慌性抛盤湧現，風險釋放較為充分。

明澤投資基金經理胡墨晗也指出，今日大漲原因主要是近期多重利好因素共振，投資者情緒顯著回暖。同時，中特估闆塊表現強勢，是推動指數上漲的主要動力。

反彈能否持續

“經過連續三日的上漲以後，在技術面上或可以确認底部的成立。”夏風光向記者表示，但要想确認市場真正的底部，在行情進一步延伸之前，還需要看到更多資金回流的迹象。同時，闆塊熱點能否進一步順暢切換和輪動也是行情向縱深發展的一個關鍵。

“個人認為，A股連續三天收陽，并不代表宏觀基本面發生質變，股民情緒很容易出現過度悲觀或過度樂觀。”鄭彥欣向記者說道，對于本周的寬幅漲跌，建議投資者理性看待。短期來看，仍不排除部分投資者獲利止盈、持币過節的可能。

不過，中長期來看，鄭彥欣表示，對後市依然保持樂觀謹慎的觀點。首先，中國經濟基本面長期向好的信念不變，經濟基本面有望持續修複以及市場信心有望逐漸回歸；其次，需堅信價值回歸這一最樸素的底層邏輯，目前A股的估值水準依然不高，而諸多優秀企業并未因為股票市值下跌而停滞發展；最後，作為投資者，搭建好适合自己的投資架構，聚焦資産品質本身，力争做到無懼短期漲跌，進退有據，或比頻繁地預測市場更有價值。

展望後市，龍赢富澤資産總經理童第轶表示，市場大機率會走出震蕩向上的大趨勢。從估值的層面來看，目前無論是橫向比較還是縱向比較，A股均已具備較大安全邊際。同時，目前政策面積極，流動性也仍保持充裕。随着歐美緊縮政策走向拐點，來自外圍的壓制也将趨于解除。

胡墨晗表示，從目前市場表現來看，市場連續收出放量長陽，構築出明确底部結構。同時，上證指數今日漲幅創新高，A股市場大機率已經出現趨勢反轉。A股市場的長牛，可能正從2024年真正開始起航，2024年度絕對收益或将确定。

後市風險方面，胡墨晗認為，後續市場主要擔憂2023年年報的落地。由于階段性的經濟環境整體表現不好，預計2023年企業的業績大機率承壓，受此影響可能還會有階段性的回落，但預計不會改變整體向上的趨勢。

記者：陸怡雯

編輯：陳偲

責任編輯：畢丹丹

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.1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: 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0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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#373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: 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174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}

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