沪指收复2900点！反弹能否持续？

1月25日，市场全天延续反弹。截至收盘，沪指涨3.03%，深成指涨2%，创业板指涨1.45%。

今日总体上个股涨多跌少，全市场超4800只个股上涨，超百股涨停或涨超10%。沪深两市成交额8915亿元，较上个交易日放量1246亿元。北向资金全天净买入62.94亿元，其中沪股通净买入48.34亿元，深股通净买入14.59亿元。

受访人士认为，今日的大涨缘于基本面和技术面上的改善。不过，A股连续三天收阳，并不代表宏观基本面发生质变，股民情绪很容易出现过度悲观或过度乐观。对于本周的宽幅涨跌，建议投资者理性看待。短期来看，仍不排除部分投资者获利止盈、持币过节的可能。

沪指涨超3%

周四，A股三大股指开盘涨跌互现，而后在“中”字头股票的拉动下沪指快速上攻。全天来看，A股实现大爆发，三大指数大幅反弹，沪指更是收复2900点关口。

盘面上，31个申万一级行业全部飘红。石油石化、房地产、建筑装饰等三大行业板块涨超5%，社会服务、国防军工、环保、通信等行业板块涨超4%，商贸零售、钢铁、传媒等行业板块跟涨。

石油石化板块以5.66%的涨幅领涨。其中，中国石油实现了自2015年7月以来的首次涨停。此外，中国石化、中曼石油、新潮能源、中油工程等多股涨超7%。

房地产板块盘中拉升，收涨5.39%。板块内光大嘉宝、京能置业、新黄浦、中华企业、亚通股份等多股实现涨停。

消息面上，1月24日晚间，中国人民银行与国家金融监督管理总局联合印发《关于做好经营性物业贷款管理的通知》（下称《通知》）。监管首次对商业银行经营性物业贷款业务进行明确，明确经营性物业贷款的定义，并将商业性房地产范畴扩围；同时，明确贷款额度和贷款期限等内容，拓宽资金用途，扩大经营性物业贷款使用范围。

概念股方面，中字头个股集体爆发，板块内狂掀涨停潮。除了中国石油外，中纺标、中铁装配、中国联通、中国交建、中国医药等超20股涨停。

消息方面，1月24日，国资委称，将进一步研究将市值管理纳入中央企业负责人业绩考核。前期，已经推动央企把上市公司的价值实现相关指标纳入到上市公司的绩效评价体系中，在此基础上，将把市值管理成效纳入对中央企业负责人的考核，引导中央企业负责人更加重视所控股上市公司的市场表现，及时通过应用市场化增持、回购等手段传递信心、稳定预期，加大现金分红力度，更好地回报投资者。

市场缘何大涨

“今天大涨是多方面因素促成的。”融智投资基金经理夏风光向记者表示，具体来看主要包括以下两方面原因：

一是受益于基本面提振。昨日收盘后央行超预期降准，以及政策面进一步明确打消了投资人的顾虑，稳定了投资者信心。经过隔夜消化后，今早并没有出现高开低走，而是震荡反复之后再走高，表明悲观看空的力量进一步被消化。

二是盘中热点多，意味着多路资金开始回流。涨幅最高的宽基指数是中证1000，大品种强势依旧，中石油出现了罕见的涨停。同时，在人民币汇率出现回落的情况下，北上资金大幅回流。

关于今日大涨的原因，铨景基金FOF基金经理郑彦欣在接受《国际金融报》记者采访时表示，一方面，今日大涨或是诸多政策利好持续发酵以及超预期降准政策发布的市场反馈。另一方面，据传雪球产品第二轮集中敲入已经发生，空头抛压此前已得到比较充分的释放。

郑彦欣进一步指出，从市场表现来看，今日“中字头”概念股引领大盘强势上攻，在一定程度上反映出市场对高层近来的有关央企绩效评价改革的认可和期待。同时，房地产概念股的高开高走，也反映出对房地产市场平稳健康发展及风险防范化解的信心修复。

A股大涨缘于基本面和技术面上的改善。天朗资产总经理陈建德分析认为，基本面上，近期各部委陆续出台一些有效的政策举措，有力地提升市场的信心。技术面上，经过上周和这周的快速杀跌，恐慌性抛盘涌现，风险释放较为充分。

明泽投资基金经理胡墨晗也指出，今日大涨原因主要是近期多重利好因素共振，投资者情绪显著回暖。同时，中特估板块表现强势，是推动指数上涨的主要动力。

反弹能否持续

“经过连续三日的上涨以后，在技术面上或可以确认底部的成立。”夏风光向记者表示，但要想确认市场真正的底部，在行情进一步延伸之前，还需要看到更多资金回流的迹象。同时，板块热点能否进一步顺畅切换和轮动也是行情向纵深发展的一个关键。

“个人认为，A股连续三天收阳，并不代表宏观基本面发生质变，股民情绪很容易出现过度悲观或过度乐观。”郑彦欣向记者说道，对于本周的宽幅涨跌，建议投资者理性看待。短期来看，仍不排除部分投资者获利止盈、持币过节的可能。

不过，中长期来看，郑彦欣表示，对后市依然保持乐观谨慎的观点。首先，中国经济基本面长期向好的信念不变，经济基本面有望持续修复以及市场信心有望逐步回归；其次，需坚信价值回归这一最朴素的底层逻辑，目前A股的估值水平依然不高，而诸多优秀企业并未因为股票市值下跌而停滞发展；最后，作为投资者，搭建好适合自己的投资框架，聚焦资产质量本身，力争做到无惧短期涨跌，进退有据，或比频繁地预测市场更有价值。

展望后市，龙赢富泽资产总经理童第轶表示，市场大概率会走出震荡向上的大趋势。从估值的层面来看，当前无论是横向比较还是纵向比较，A股均已具备较大安全边际。同时，当前政策面积极，流动性也仍保持充裕。随着欧美紧缩政策走向拐点，来自外围的压制也将趋于解除。

胡墨晗表示，从当前市场表现来看，市场连续收出放量长阳，构筑出明确底部结构。同时，上证指数今日涨幅创新高，A股市场大概率已经出现趋势反转。A股市场的长牛，可能正从2024年真正开始起航，2024年度绝对收益或将确定。

后市风险方面，胡墨晗认为，后续市场主要担忧2023年年报的落地。由于阶段性的经济环境整体表现不好，预计2023年企业的业绩大概率承压，受此影响可能还会有阶段性的回落，但预计不会改变整体向上的趋势。

记者：陆怡雯

编辑：陈偲

责任编辑：毕丹丹

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.1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: 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0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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#373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: 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174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}

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