Abnormal! Abnormal! The bottom is confirmed! The stock market and the property market are reversed!
In the first month of the first month of 2024, a series of abnormalities, abnormalities, and abnormalities will let us continue to witness history! The bottom of the property market has been completely determined, and the bottom of the stock market is also likely to be determined! I hope that this bottom is "welded to death, and the all-purpose glue is sealed"!
Monetary policy in January 2024 is a bit of an anomaly.
Judging from the monetary policy of previous years, the monetary policy in January of each year tends to be very loose, and new loans tend to be the most important month of the year. More money in January is conducive to the confidence of opening the new year, promoting the economic development of the new year, and forming a "good start"!
In recent years, the economy has been sluggish, especially in the winter of 2023, and the economy has generally felt "cold". The big A trend is an important indicator of economic confidence. The mainstream of financial circles believes that the RRR or interest rate should be cut in January 2024, but it was not lowered on January 20.
Big A unusually plummeted, witnessing history.
Due to the lack of RRR and interest rate cuts in January, the capital market was disappointed, and A-shares continued to hit new lows, with the Shanghai Composite Index as low as 2,724 points. In the past, it was often shouted to defend 3000 points, indicating that the market was very serious. In the past month, it has fallen below 2900 and 2800, and has come to more than 2700 points, and the market is in a panic. During this period, the top did not release any benefits, silently looking at the sagging, very abnormal.
Opening the monthly chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, it is found that it has recently fallen to the annual line for the first time in nearly a decade. The last time the monthly line fell to the annual line was in June 2013. On January 22, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by as much as 2.68%, and more than 5,000 companies fell, falling by more than 5% to 3,844, which was unprecedented!
The monthly line fell to the annual line for the first time in nearly a decade
The historic plunge and overfall directly triggered a high-level meeting. On January 22, the "National Standing Meeting" held a meeting to study countermeasures, implement more effective measures, focus on stabilizing the market and confidence, and prepare for the release of a "package" of benefits.
Following the "National Standing Meeting", five financial and economic press conferences were held in three consecutive days. The China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Central Bank, the Financial Authority, the Ministry of Commerce, etc. have come out one after another to "speak ruthlessly"!
On January 24 (Wednesday), Wang Jianjun, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, was interviewed by the media and sent a lot of positive and sharp messages. To build an investor-oriented capital market, it is necessary to give priority to investors in the design of institutional mechanisms, so that the majority of investors can have returns and a sense of gain. Vigorously improve the quality of listed companies, and the quality of listed companies is prominently reflected in the returns to investors. We will further improve the quality evaluation standards of listed companies, highlight the return requirements, and vigorously promote listed companies to better return investors through repurchase and cancellation, increase dividends, etc. We will further improve the anti-counterfeiting system and mechanism of the capital market, and maintain a high-pressure situation of "zero tolerance". We will resolutely crack down on illegal acts that seriously harm the interests of investors, such as fraudulent issuance, and let them "go bankrupt and sit in prison". The intermediaries involved in the fraud will be held accountable, so that they dare not do it again.
At 10 a.m. on January 24 (Wednesday), at the "Guoxin" press conference, the person in charge of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission talked about the management of central enterprises, focusing on enhancing core functions, enhancing core competitiveness, and better realizing the high-quality development of central enterprises.
At 3 p.m. on January 24 (Wednesday), the "Guoxin" press conference, the central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange introduced the implementation of the central economic deployment, the high-quality development of financial services for the real economy, and announced the RRR and interest rate cuts in February.
At 3 p.m. on January 25 (Thursday), the State Administration of Hong Kong introduced the high-quality economic and social development of financial services.
At 3 p.m. on January 26 (Friday), at the "Guoxin" press conference, the Ministry of Commerce introduced the relevant situation of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and promoting new breakthroughs in high-quality business development.
No matter how abnormal it is! Unprecedented, it was suddenly announced in advance, and the RRR and interest rates will be cut next month! Sensational in the financial circle!
On January 25, the central bank's debtors announced that the central bank would cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points on February 5 to provide liquidity to the market by 1 trillion yuan. In addition, tomorrow (January 25), the relending and rediscount interest rates for supporting small agricultural support will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 2% to 1.75%, and continue to promote the steady decline of comprehensive social financing costs.
In January, I didn't wait for the RRR and interest rate cuts, but in January, I announced that the RRR and interest rates would be cut in February, which was a quick move to save the market. This RRR cut is 0.5 percentage points, which is the largest decline in the past two years, and the previous four times were 0.25 percentage points respectively.
The governor of the central bank also said: increase macroeconomic regulation and control, strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and continue to promote high-quality economic development. Create a good monetary policy environment for the operation of financial markets, including capital markets. In 2024, in terms of monetary aggregates, we will make comprehensive use of a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, so that the scale of social financing and money supply will match the expected targets of economic growth and price levels. Yang Ma released her confidence from many aspects.
There is good news for real estate credit. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Hong Kong (HKMA) jointly issued the Notice on the Management of Operating Property Loans. Specifically, the notice refines the requirements for the management of commercial banks' operating property loan business, such as caliber, term, quota and purpose, and clarifies that by the end of 2024, for real estate development enterprises with standardized operation and good development prospects, national commercial banks will issue operating property loans for operating capital needs related to the property itself on the basis of controllable risks and sustainable business. In addition to loans and shareholder loans arising from the replacement of construction and purchase of properties, operating property loans can also be issued to repay relevant loans and open market bonds in the field of stock real estate of real estate development enterprises and their group holding companies (including consolidated subsidiaries).
This is a major benefit for real estate enterprises with shopping malls, office buildings, hotels, industrial parks, cultural tourism properties and other operating properties, which can increase loans, expand use, and alleviate the financial constraints of enterprises. These operating properties are also difficult in the current real estate industry, which is difficult to sell and realize, and it is difficult to attract investment. The relaxation of operating property loans is conducive to the revitalization of assets by real estate enterprises and the flexible use of adjustment groups. This policy came out earlier, and it is estimated that Wang Jianlin's Wanda will not continue to transfer Wanda Plaza!
At present, the biggest hope is that the leveling fund that has been shouted for a year can be launched as soon as possible, otherwise it will be too late, and the significance will not be great! If the big A rises, the average fund's rate of return will decrease; and if the big A falls again, the trauma will be too great.
A bull market is born in despair, grows in hesitation, and perishes in madness...... Cycle.
It is hoped that the SSE 2724 points will become the lowest point of this round of bear market, a historic turning point, and the starting point of a new round of bull market!