Text: Today's Construction Machinery Yan Han
Photography: Yuan Hong
January 2024
China's construction machinery market
In January 2024, China's construction machinery market index, namely CMI, was 101.25, an increase of 12.10% year-on-year and a month-on-month decrease of 1.28% (according to the CMI judgment standard, the December index continued to be slightly higher than the contraction value of 100, and the market sentiment was still very pessimistic, but the decline gradually stabilized, and downside risks were still accumulating).
In January, China's construction machinery market index improved by 14.69 percentage points year-on-year, a month-on-month deterioration of 2.12 percentage points, indicating that the domestic construction machinery market after the first half of January, more than half of the regional market, due to the low base in the same period in January 23, continued the trend of December 23, still in the year-on-year growth range, but January 24 compared with 23 South December showed a trend of sales reduction, by the Lunar New Year before the rush to work, cooling and snowfall, earthquake relief, Affected by various factors such as a slight improvement in the availability of funds in the first-tier market, the market continued to show a slight improvement in January.
As of January 24, according to the author's grassroots research and cross-analysis of industries closely related to the downstream, it was learned that the operating rates of Northeast China, North China, East China, South China, Central China, Northwest China and Southwest China were about 41.33%, 45.56%, 47.67%, 54.23%, 42.20%, 44.09% and 50.85% respectively. Compared with the previous period (January 12), they increased by 1.33, 2.31, -1.28, 4.65, -2.24, -2.41 and -6.48 percentage points respectively. Compared with the situation in early January, in late January, except for South China, North China and Northeast China, the operating rates of all major regions decreased slightly.
In the CMI index, the inventory index for manufacturers increased by 2.42 percentage points and the production index increased by 7.20% year-on-year, the new orders index for agents increased by 18.44% year-on-year and 40.99% month-on-month, the channel inventory index decreased by 15 percentage points compared with the previous period, and the user price index for the market line decreased by 3.22% year-on-year.
Changes in monthly CMI index values since 2022
According to the data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association a few days ago, in December 2023, a total of 16,698 units of various excavation machinery products were sold, a decrease of 1.01% over the same period last year, of which 7,625 units were sold in the domestic market, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, and 9,073 units were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%. Among them, the domestic market was 39 units higher than the author's expectation, and the export was 355 units higher than our expectation, and the actual domestic market and export prosperity in December were basically the same as the author's expectations.
From the perspective of the market terminal, in the first three weeks of December 2023, the operating hours of excavators monitored in the domestic circulation field decreased by 5.2% year-on-year and increased by 7.05% month-on-month.
From the perspective of increased investment on the demand side, only the investment growth rate of coal and non-ferrous metal mining industry has improved, the short-term investment growth rate of most other related industries has fallen slightly, and the decline rate of real estate-related indicators has narrowed slightly.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to December 2023, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) 503036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and the growth rate was 1 percentage point higher than that from January to November.
From January to December, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from January to November. Among them, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 5.2 percent, the investment in public facilities management decreased by 0.8 percent, the investment in road transport decreased by 0.7 percent, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 25.2 percent, with the growth rate increasing by 0.0, 1.7, -0.5 and 3.7 percentage points respectively.
From January to December, investment in the mining industry increased by 2.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from January to November. The growth rate of coal mining investment was 12.1 percent, down 0.5 percentage points, the decline in ferrous metal mining and dressing investment expanded by 3 percentage points to -6.8 percent, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing fixed investment increased to 42.7 percent.
From January to December, manufacturing investment increased by 6.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from January to November.
From January to December, real estate development investment was 110913 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.2 percentage points larger than that of the previous month. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 13.6 percent year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from January to November, and the area of housing construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 7.7 percent year-on-year, and the area of new housing construction decreased by 20.4 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points narrower than that from January to November, respectively.
By region, investment in the eastern region increased by 4.4 percent year-on-year, investment in the central region increased by 0.3 percent, investment in the western region increased by 0.1 percent, and investment in the northeast region decreased by 1.8 percent, up by -0.1, 0.3, 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points respectively from January to November.
From January to December 2023, the investment in projects with a planned total investment of 100 million yuan or more (referred to as "large projects") increased by 9.3% year-on-year, 6.3 percentage points higher than the total investment, and the two were 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous November, respectively.
Judging from the monitoring data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded slightly as policies such as the issuance of additional treasury bonds continue to take effect. However, the improvement of the overall financial situation requires a longer transmission process to stimulate the downstream construction machinery industry.
In addition, the cumulative growth of sources of funds for investment in fixed assets deteriorated by 0.1 percentage points from January to November to -1.4 percent, and state budget funds fell from 12.3 percent in January to November to 9.0 percent. The cumulative growth of domestic loans to fixed assets edged down to 5.1% from 5.2% in the January-November period. The cumulative growth of fixed asset investment bonds fell sharply to 4.3% from 18.0% in January-November. The utilization of foreign capital in fixed asset investment fell from -13.5% to -17.5%, and the cumulative growth rate of self-raised funds increased slightly to 1.1%.
In fixed investment, the cumulative growth of the total planned investment in construction projects continued to decline from 5.8% in January-November to 3.7%, and the cumulative growth of the planned total investment in newly started projects deteriorated from -12.9% in January-November to -17.6%.
To sum up, among the sources of fixed investment funds, state budget funds, loans, and creditor's rights have maintained relatively good growth, although the growth rate is narrowing; investment in construction projects has maintained a slight growth rate, but the investment in new construction plans has deteriorated significantly.
Comparison of the issuance quota of government bonds in various provinces and regions in China from January to December 2023
From January to December 2023, the comparison of government bond issuance in various provinces and regions in China shows that Tianjin, Guizhou, Liaoning, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Anhui, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Guangxi, Chongqing, Yunnan, Shandong, Hainan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hebei, Qinghai, Qingdao, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Guangdong, Dalian, Shaanxi, Fujian, Xiamen, Gansu, Hubei, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Ningbo and Xinjiang are all growing year-on-year, and the top 9 are all growing by more than 50% year-on-year. Guangdong, Shandong, Hunan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Anhui, Hebei, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Henan, Tianjin, Yunnan, Hubei and Chongqing have quotas of more than 300 billion yuan.
At the same time, from a policy point of view, the overall trend of the country is to actively expand effective investment, support local governments to increase investment in key areas to make up for shortcomings, and strive to enhance the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure, which means that the situation of "flood irrigation" during the 4 trillion yuan period will be difficult to occur. Therefore, at present, in the first quarter of China's construction machinery domestic market in 2024, although the short-term expectations have improved, they are still relatively pessimistic. However, the market data performance, due to the base of 23 years and the Spring Festival factor of 24 years, will likely produce large year-on-year growth data fluctuations, and there is no need to be particularly pessimistic.
Integrating the excavator sales data and other related index data in December 2023 into the monitoring and forecasting data model of China's construction machinery market, the author predicts that in January 2024, the domestic excavator market sales will be 5,318 units, an increase of 54.73% year-on-year, the export excavator market sales will be 7,018 units, an increase of 0.17% year-on-year, that is, the total sales volume will be 12,336 units, an increase of 18.13% year-on-year, and the domestic loader market sales will be 3,756 units, an increase of 54.57% year-on-year. The forecast data will be updated on a monthly basis based on upstream and downstream economic, investment and sales data, as well as immediate feedback from first-tier markets.
Zhuozhong construction machinery media organization
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