Today, January 22, NATO began the largest military exercise against Russia, which will continue until May, and the intensity of the Russian-Ukrainian war will definitely escalate.
And yesterday, Zelensky made a "difficult personnel decision", which can greatly influence, or even shake the morale of the Ukrainian army, is there no fear that the Ukrainian army will coup d'état?
On the right is Zaluzhny
On January 21, according to reference news and other media reports, Zelensky announced at a high-level military meeting in Kyiv that he would remove the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of the Ukrainian army, Zaluzhny, from his post and that no other positions would be arranged within the Ukrainian army or government.
This means that the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Zaluzhny, was "swept to the end" and demoted to a civilian.
At the same time, Zaluzhny's descendants, the Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army, Shaptara, the Commander-in-Chief of the Joint Forces of Ukraine, Nayev and others were dismissed.
Moreover, it is foreseeable that there will be officers who have been implicated in the dismissal of their posts at a later stage.
Such a major military personnel change, in terms of rank and number, is the most turbulent since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24, 2022, and it can be said to be a strong earthquake.
The impact of the personnel change far exceeded that of last September, when former Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov was dismissed.
What's even more bizarre is that foreign media reported that Zelensky appointed the head of the Security Service of Ukraine, and Budanov took over Zaluzhny, however, Budanov "refused to leave his post".
The two are one of the few in the same frame
At present, the Russian army is expanding its troops and equipment on the front line, intending to launch a new round of offensive against Ukraine after the weather warms.
Zelensky chose to take Zaluzhny at this time, revealing at least 3 signals to the outside world:
1. Zaluzhny's merits are high, and his excellent military command art has even been highly praised by the top brass of the Russian army.
Now the chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, Gerasimov, whose fate is unknown, once publicly commented on Zaluzhny:
"He's a very difficult guy, and it's clear that his tactics are completely different from ours (the Russian army)"
Gerasimov
On February 24, 2022, when the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, when Kyiv was besieged and almost fell, it was Zaluzhny and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky (ethnic Russian) who was ordered to join forces to command the Antonov airport and storm the Russian army's logistics supply convoy, thus holding Kyiv.
Then, from August to October 2022, Zaluzhny commanded the Ukrainian army, attacked the east and west, feinted Kherson, and attacked Kharkov, recovering a large area of the country, which was the highlight moment of Zaluzhny.
Entering 2023, the Russian-Ukrainian war has formed a substantial stalemate, Zaluzhny commanded the Ukrainian army to storm the Black Sea Fleet and successfully attacked the Black Sea Fleet command, which has basically been disabled.
Ukrainian troops opened fire
It can be said that without the command of Zaluzhny, it is likely that Kyiv will fall, and the Ukrainian army will not have a counterattack.
Zaluzhny's prestige in Ukraine is very high, and his achievements are high, which makes Zelensky feel the crisis, because 2024 is the year of the general election in Ukraine.
2. Zelensky overstepped his authority to command a "political battle", which eventually led to increasingly acute contradictions with Zaluzhny, and Zaluzhny's important deputy unexpectedly died of a "grenade explosion".
According to foreign media reports, Zelensky often oversteps the command, and as a leader with no military experience at all, Zelensky's orders often skip Zaluzhny and go directly to the army.
Zaluzhny is a professional soldier and is very professional
And the battle for Bakhmut in March last year was a general outbreak of contradictions between Zelensky and Zaluzhny.
After months of fierce fighting, Zaluzhny judged from the battlefield situation and suggested that he should withdraw from Bakhmut, retain the living forces, and not fight for one city and one pool.
But Zelensky insisted that the Ukrainian army hold on, and did not hesitate to constantly reinforce troops. His aim is to fight a "political battle" and show the United States and NATO that the Ukrainian army is "determined not to retreat" so that more support can be obtained.
Seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers
A large number of Ukrainian troops were thrown into this meat grinder, and in the end, after months of fighting, the Ukrainian army lost Bakhmut and lost nearly 20,000 people, all of whom were elite troops trained and equipped by NATO.
Such losses directly led to the failure of Zaluzhny's planned "spring counteroffensive", and the contradictions between the two became public.
And at a recent press conference, Zaluzhny also publicly criticized Zelensky, claiming that Zelensky was directly responsible for the loss of Avdeyevka.
Therefore, Zelensky, who has no experience in the army, overstepped his authority to command the Ukrainian army, and led to the Ukrainian army not achieving a major victory in the war against Russia throughout 2023, thus completely making the conflict with the high-level of the Ukrainian army like Zaluzhny a professional soldier.
Ukrainian medics on the front line
3. The capture of Zaluzhny will inevitably lead to internal turmoil in the Ukrainian army, and the purge will continue, is there a risk of a coup d'état in the Ukrainian army?
There is indeed a risk of a coup d'état by the Ukrainian army.
Countless times in history have proved that infighting between the top levels of the government and the top of the military often leads to very serious bloodshed, the most typical example is the 226 Mutiny in Japan.
This time Zelensky took Zaluzhny, and the follow-up purge will definitely continue, and it turns out that Zaluzhny's descendant forces, if nothing else, will definitely be liquidated by Zelensky.
In this process, whether Zaluzhny's descendants will take the initiative to cede power, and whether the United States will support Zelensky to replace Zaluzhny, these are all unknowns and are all big risks.
To sum up, 2024 is an extremely critical year for Ukraine, with more than 700 days of fighting, more than 100,000 casualties, and 32 NATO countries supporting hundreds of billions of dollars, but the 4 oblasts of eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula are still controlled by the Russian army, which makes the United States and NATO very disappointed.
At this moment, Zelensky has begun to liquidate internally, and under internal and external troubles, Zelensky will be under more pressure!@Geography Map@Kyiv Star@Dr. Liu looks at the United States