JERUSALEM, Jan. 14 (Xinhua) -- The 100-day conflict in Gaza has been a catastrophe and the spillover is expanding and it is urgent to stop the fighting
Xinhua News Agency reporter
The new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for 100 days since it broke out on October 7 last year. The duration and intensity of the current round of conflict are unusual, resulting in a large number of casualties and displacement.
Analysts have pointed out that although Israel has announced that its military operations have partially shifted to low intensity, it has no intention of ending the fighting as soon as possible, and the spillover effects of the Gaza conflict are constantly expanding, spreading to Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and other places. Failure of the international community to promote an immediate ceasefire and cessation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip will threaten the stability of the entire Middle East region.
The humanitarian disaster is serious and the Israeli side has no intention of ceasefire
According to data from the Palestinian health department in the Gaza Strip, Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip have killed more than 23,000 people since the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. For its part, Israel claims that more than 1,300 Israelis have died in the current round of clashes, and that about 130 others are still being held by the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).
On 13 January, smoke rose after an Israeli airstrike on the southern Gaza Strip city of Khan Younis. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Yasser Cudi)
At the beginning of the conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set out three major objectives of the Israeli military operation, namely, "to destroy Hamas, rescue all detainees, and ensure that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a threat to Israel."
During the Israeli military operations, a large number of civilian infrastructures in the Gaza Strip, including homes, hospitals, water systems, etc., were damaged or destroyed, and large numbers of Palestinians were forced to flee south. According to the United Nations, 1.9 million people have been displaced in the Gaza Strip, or 85 per cent of its population. More than 1.3 million displaced persons are now concentrated in the city of Rafah, in southern Gaza, which previously had only 300,000 inhabitants;
Despite the growing calls and pressure from the international community for a ceasefire and an end to hostilities, Israel has no intention of cessating hostilities as soon as possible. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant said that the next phase of the Israeli operation "will last longer." For his part, Israeli Chief of General Staff Al-Halevi told soldiers that "we will fight in the Gaza Strip throughout 2024."
In an exclusive interview with the US "Wall Street Journal" a few days ago, Gallant said that the Israeli army's military operations in the northern Gaza Strip will shift from high-intensity operations to low-intensity operations. In this regard, Palestinian political analyst Filas Yaji pointed out that due to the increasing criticism and accusations against Israel from all sides, Israel has adjusted its military operations to specific areas of the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli media believe that the Israeli army will carry out limited ground operations or air strikes in specific areas of the northern Gaza Strip, while operations in the southern Gaza Strip will be concentrated in the Khan Younis area, which is considered a hideout for Hamas leaders.
冲突外溢加剧 止战呼声高涨
The spillover risk of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been widening recently. On January 12 and 13, the United States and the United Kingdom carried out military strikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels, resulting in many deaths and injuries. U.S. President Joe Biden called it a "defensive act" in response to the Houthis' frequent attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Many countries in the Middle East have expressed concern about this, believing that this will lead to an escalation of regional tensions. The Iraqi Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that widening the scope of the conflict would not help resolve the underlying problems and would only lead to a continued spillover of risks. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said arbitrary attacks would only exacerbate insecurity and instability in the region.
Since the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, US military bases in Iraq and Syria have been frequently attacked, and the United States has attacked some militias in these two countries.
On Lebanon's southern border, there has been an ongoing exchange of fire between Israel and Allah Lebanon. In particular, after Saleh Aruri, deputy chairman of the Hamas Politburo, was killed in an attack on the southern outskirts of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, on the 2nd, the intensity of the exchange of fire between Israel and Allah escalated significantly. Harrell Horef, a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University in Israel, believes that there is even a possibility of a head-on conflict between the two sides.
On 6 January, smoke rose from an Israeli airstrike on Khiam, Lebanon. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Tahir Abu Hamdan)
Chuck Freilich, a senior fellow at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, believes that if a full-scale conflict breaks out between Israel and Allah, Shiite militias in Syria may join the war, and the situation in the West Bank may spiral out of control, and wider regional conflicts will be inevitable.
At a time when the regional security situation is unstable, the extremist group "Islamic State" has also become active, claiming to have caused two explosions in the southeastern Iranian city of Kerman on the 3rd, which killed nearly 100 people.
In the face of this situation, the international community, especially the countries of the Middle East, have called for a ceasefire and an end to the fighting. Jordanian Foreign Minister Safadi called on all parties to shoulder their responsibilities and stop Israel's military action so that the entire Middle East is not dragged into the "crucible of regional wars". The Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that a comprehensive ceasefire and an end to military strikes against Palestinian civilians must be achieved in order to avoid regional instability and the expansion of the conflict.
The United States and Israel are facing a dilemma, and the contradictions are increasing day by day
Since the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Netanyahu government's approval rating has been declining. Many Israelis believe that Netanyahu's push for judicial reform has caused chaos and given Hamas an opportunity to attack Israel. The government and military's handling of issues such as the rescue of detainees has also caused dissatisfaction among the population, with protests against Netanyahu's government taking place.
According to the results of a poll released by Israeli TV 12 on the 11th, if the election is held immediately, the Likud party led by Netanyahu will only be able to win 18 of the 120 parliamentary seats, a significant decrease from the current 32, and the ruling coalition, which originally occupied 64 seats, can only win 48 seats, losing its parliamentary majority. Another poll showed that only 15 percent of Israelis want Netanyahu to remain prime minister after the conflict ends.
Analysts believe that the sluggish approval ratings have forced Netanyahu to prolong the conflict as long as possible, keeping the country in a "wartime state".
At the same time, the United States, which has always supported Israel on the Palestinian-Israeli issue and in this round of conflict, is also facing increasing pressure from the international community, especially Middle Eastern countries.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited the Middle East again, the main purpose of which is to avoid the expansion of the conflict in Gaza and involve the United States in it. During his trip, Blinken stressed the need to prevent the conflict from spilling over, brokered the release of detainees, and opposed the expulsion of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, but did not respond to the strong calls of Middle Eastern countries for an immediate ceasefire.
Steven Wright, an associate professor at Qatar's Hamad Bin Khalifa University, pointed out that Blinken's visit was purely "tactical" and aimed at appeasing Middle Eastern countries.
Bassam Salehi, a member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, said that the United States has never seriously considered the issue of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and that Blinken's visit is only to prevent Biden from losing votes due to the humanitarian crisis caused by the conflict in Gaza during his re-election campaign.
However, as the situation deteriorates, the contradictions between the United States and Israel are also increasing. According to Israeli media reports, during Blinken's visit to Israel, he demanded that Israel return the withheld Palestinian tax revenues to the Palestinian side and allow displaced residents of northern Gaza to return to their homes, but the Israeli side refused. Some analysts have pointed out that as the United States enters an election year, the Biden administration may put pressure on Israel to a certain extent due to the needs of the election, but Netanyahu will not listen to his words, and this contradiction will increase the uncertainty of Israel's policy and make the direction of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict more unpredictable. (Participating reporters: Zhang Tianlang, Lv Yingxu, Wang Hao, Liu Weijian, Sha Dati)