In 2023, China's auto market hit "four new highs", and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: It is expected to increase by 3% year-on-year in 2024

In 2023, a new milestone will be ushered in in the history of the development of China's automobile industry.

According to the latest production and sales data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM"), the total production and sales of automobiles in mainland China will reach 30.161 million units and 30.094 million units in 2023, an increase of 11.6% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, and the production and sales volume will reach a record high, achieving double-digit growth.

Among them, the passenger car market continued to grow well, playing an important role in stabilizing the basic market of automobile consumption, the commercial vehicle market stabilized and rebounded, with production and sales returning to 4 million, new energy vehicles continued to maintain rapid growth, with production and sales exceeding 9 million units, with a market share of more than 30%, becoming an important force leading the transformation of the global automobile industry, and automobile exports reached a new high, with annual exports approaching 5 million units, effectively driving the rapid growth of the industry as a whole.

The total production and sales volume has been leading for 15 consecutive years

Looking back on the overall market sales trend in 2023, it mainly shows the characteristics of "opening low and going high, gradually improving".

At the beginning of this year, due to the withdrawal of traditional fuel vehicle purchase tax incentives and new energy vehicle subsidy policies, the Spring Festival holiday was advanced, Affected by factors such as the early overdraft of some consumption, the recovery of automobile consumption is relatively lagging behind, and the cumulative production and sales in the first two months have dropped significantly compared with the same period; from March to April, the tide of price promotion has fluctuated in the terminal market, and automobile consumption is in the process of slow recovery, and the overall economic operation of the automobile industry is facing greater pressure; from May to October, under the promotion of national and local policies, coupled with the continuation of local car purchase promotion activities and other measures, the market demand has been gradually released, and the "golden nine and silver ten" Since November, the market has continued to develop well, and the auto market has improved beyond expectations due to the impulse of car companies at the end of the year, with production and sales hitting a record high.

According to the data, in December 2023, the production and sales of automobiles will reach 3.079 million units and 3.156 million units, respectively, with production down 0.5% month-on-month, sales up 6.3% month-on-month, and 29.2% and 23.5% year-on-year, respectively, with sales hitting a record high, and increasing annual sales to 30 million units.

So far, the total production and sales of automobiles in mainland China have ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years, and significantly ahead of the United States, the world's second largest automobile consumption market, which will have cumulative sales of 15.46 million vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% from the low base in 2022.

In 2009, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time, becoming the world's largest automobile production and sales country. In 2013, it exceeded 20 million units, and in 2017, production and sales reached a stage peak, and then the market declined for three consecutive years, entering a period of transformation and adjustment, and began to rebound at the end of the "three consecutive declines" in 2021.

In addition, judging from the inventory situation in recent years, the inventory of manufacturers reached the highest level in 2017, and then gradually declined. Judging from the inventory situation in 2023, the competition in the automotive industry has intensified, the wait-and-see sentiment of terminal consumption has increased in the first half of the year, the inventory level in March and April has remained high, and with the continuous release of market demand in the second half of the year, the overall sales volume has continued to increase, the inventory pressure of manufacturers has eased, and the overall inventory is at a reasonable level.

The number of passenger cars has exceeded 20 million for nine consecutive years, and the market share of Chinese brands has reached 56%

Among the more than 30 million new cars in 2023, passenger cars account for more than eighty percent.

In December 2023, passenger vehicle production and sales reached a record high of 2.713 million units and 2.792 million units, up 0.3% m/m and 7.2% m/m and 27.7% and 23.3% y/y, respectively.

Cumulative production and sales for the year totaled 26.124 million units and 26.063 million units, up 9.6% and 10.6% y/y, respectively. So far, the mainland passenger car market has exceeded 20 million units for nine consecutive years.

Looking back at the trend of passenger cars in 2023, it is basically in line with the overall auto market.

Judging from the sales volume of each month, the passenger car market was affected by policy switching and price fluctuations at the beginning of the year, and the market was under great pressure.

In the second quarter, with the gradual recovery of consumption, the situation of the passenger car market gradually improved and returned to a normal rhythm. Especially since the second half of the year, driven by national and local policies, coupled with the continuous development of auto shows and promotional activities in many places, the new products of major car companies have continued to be released, which has further stimulated the consumption of passenger cars.

In this process, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars continued to rise. In December 2023, a total of 1.619 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, up 4.1% month-on-month and 25.9% year-on-year, accounting for 58% of total passenger car sales, with a market share increase of 1.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

Throughout 2023, a total of 14.596 million Chinese brand passenger cars will be sold, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, accounting for 56% of the total passenger car sales, and the market share will increase by 6.1 percentage points over the previous year.

Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, emphasized that the record high of passenger cars in 2023 has significantly decreased the price of passenger cars in China's passenger car market, which in turn has a certain relationship with consumers' enthusiasm for car purchases.

At the same time, he also pointed out that if passenger car sales are divided into exports and domestic markets, there is still a gap of about 2 million units in the domestic market compared to the historical high in 2017. Therefore, promoting the growth of domestic demand is the main task in 2024.

New energy vehicles have ranked first in the world for 9 consecutive years, with annual sales approaching 10 million units

Under the dual role of policy and market, the mainland new energy vehicle market has ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years.

In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 9.587 million units and 9.495 million units, an increase of 35.8% and 37.9% year-on-year, respectively, and the market share will reach 31.6%, 5.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy commercial vehicles accounted for 11.5% and 11.1% of the production and sales of commercial vehicles, respectively, and the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 34.9% and 34.7% of the production and sales of passenger vehicles, respectively.

In the new energy passenger vehicles, with the enrichment of model varieties, the large number of new models on the market, the decline in model prices and other factors, in 2023, the A0 class and above will show positive year-on-year growth, of which the D-class will increase the most, and the A00 class will decline year-on-year. At present, sales are mainly concentrated in the A-class, with cumulative sales of 3.471 million units, a year-on-year increase of 45.5%.

Corresponding to the price range, among the new energy passenger vehicles, the models in the price range of more than 80,000 yuan showed positive year-on-year growth, of which the models in the price range of 35-400,000 yuan increased the most, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 1 times. Below 80,000 decreased year-on-year. At present, sales are still mainly concentrated in the price range of 15-200,000 units, with cumulative sales of 2.833 million units, a year-on-year increase of 52.7%.

Dismantling the monthly sales trend of the new energy vehicle market throughout the year found that from the beginning of the year (January) of more than 400,000 units, to 600,000 units in April, 700,000 units in May, 800,000 units in June, 900,000 units in September, and then to more than 1 million units in November, the market has been constantly refreshing history.

On the basis of monthly sales of one million units, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in December hit a record high, with production and sales of 1.172 million and 1.191 million units respectively, an increase of 47.5% and 46.4% year-on-year respectively, and a market share of 37.7%.

On the whole, although the new energy vehicle market will lose its three-digit explosive growth in 2023, the total market volume has reached a new high, approaching the scale of 10 million vehicles. The association expects that the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 11.5 million units in 2024.

Exports totaled 4.91 million units, contributing 55.7% to total sales

In 2023, automobile exports reached a new high, with annual exports increasing by 57.9% y/y to 4.91 million units, becoming an important force driving the growth of automobile production and sales, contributing 55.7% to the growth of total automobile sales.

Passenger car exports totaled 4.14 million units, reflecting a 63.7% y/y increase, while commercial vehicle exports totaled 770,000 units, reflecting a 32.2% y/y increase. Exports of conventional fuel vehicles totaled 3.707 million units, up 52.4% y/y, and NEV exports totaled 1.203 million units, up 77.6% y/y.

Among the top 10 OEMs, BYD exported 252,000 units, up 3.3 times y/y, Chery sold 925,000 units, up 1 times y/y, and Great Wall exported 316,000 units, up 82.5% y/y.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 12, the mainland's automobile exports in 2023 will be 5.221 million units, an increase of 57.4% year-on-year.

According to the General Administration of Customs, in recent years, with the continuous advancement of the construction of the mainland's modern industrial system. The mainland's automobile industry has made unremitting efforts to carry out scientific and technological innovation, built a complete industrial chain and supply chain, and the production and sales of automobiles have reached new highs, and the corresponding export scale is gradually expanding. In 2021 and 2022, the export volume of mainland automobiles has reached the level of 2 million and 3 million units in a row. In 2023, it will cross two million steps and export 5.221 million units, an increase of 57.4% y/y.

This figure means that in 2023, the mainland will officially surpass Japan (Japan's automobile exports from January to November were 3.99 million units, and the whole year has not yet been announced) to become the world's largest automobile exporter.

However, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, emphasized at the media conference that China's automobile exports have achieved remarkable results, but did not encourage publicity on topics such as "whether China is the world's largest exporter of automobiles".

The reason is that trade exports are only a small branch of automobile exports, and the real exports should be produced, manufactured, and sold overseas, for example, Japan's sales of localized production overseas last year can actually reach 17 million to 18 million units.

He also pointed out that there is another special phenomenon in mainland auto exports in 2023, which is the "opportunity market" of Russia. "Last year, the Russian market brought about 800,000 units to China's car exports, and it is likely that this 'opportunity market' will not exist in 2024, and in addition, the EU's countervailing investigation of Chinese cars and other measures will also have a certain impact. ”

He remains optimistic about the export outlook for 2024, as Chinese auto products have conquered foreign consumers with product strength, and export sales in 2024 are expected to increase by 600,000 units on the basis of 2023.

Outlook for 2024:

With the continuous promotion of the national policy of promoting consumption and stabilizing growth, the implementation of a series of policies to promote the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry, including the continuation of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, and the continuous promotion of new energy vehicles and infrastructure construction to the countryside, will further stimulate market vitality and consumption potential.

The association predicts that China's total car sales will exceed 31 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of more than 3%. Among them, passenger car sales were 26.8 million units, up 3% year-on-year, and commercial vehicle sales were 4.2 million units, up 4% year-on-year. NEV sales were 11.5 million units, with exports of 5.5 million units.