Have A-shares fallen to the bottom? What should I do with the fund in my hand?
The following article comes from Teaching You to Dig the Base, the author Dig the Base
"The market will continue to be irrational for longer than you can hold on." This wise saying has been proven once again recently.
The "black start" in 2024 is sudden, and how much high hopes investors have for the two long white candlesticks before the New Year's Day should be disappointed now.
1►
Why did A-shares fall sharply?
Since the beginning of the year, A-shares have continued to adjust, the Shanghai Composite Index has repeatedly fallen below new lows this year, and the battle to defend 2,900 points has started again, and market sentiment has returned to freezing.
There are several possible reasons why A-shares have fallen sharply again:
First, after a continuous decline, the market has not seen a strong new positive for the time being, and there has been an inertial decline, and the performance of core assets has also been constrained under the reduction game of public offerings and northbound funds.
Second, the recently released manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in December was 49.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the level of manufacturing prosperity has fallen, making the market style biased towards risk aversion;
Third, after the small and micro market style rose sharply one after another, the short-term pullback made up for the decline, and the market game sentiment increased, which further weakened the money-making effect.
Fourth, last week's ADP non-farm payrolls data (i.e., "small non-farms") released by the United States exceeded expectations, and the minutes of the Fed's December meeting acknowledged that the policy rate may have peaked, but did not discuss the specific timing of the rate cut, and the market's optimistic expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in March were revised.
(Source: Choice, public information)
In the short term, it seems to be a gathering of unfavorable factors, but the essence is a lack of incremental funds and confidence. Historically, before each round of A-shares came out of the trough, they were accompanied by the back-and-forth of the market, and the direction was uncertain.
The closer to the end of the decline, the more confidence in the market will be lacking, and the transaction will fall into a downturn, and it will be indifferent to the positives.
Extreme pessimistic expectations often lead to extreme prices, and a number of indicators have hit historical extremes and reached a clear bottom zone:
At present, the price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is -TTM 12.5 times, and the price-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is -TTM 10.8 times, which is lower than the end of the bear market in November 2008;
In December, the proportion of A-shares breaking net rose to 8%, surpassing June 2013 and January 2016, and approaching 8.2% in November 2008.
The yield spread between stocks and bonds (10-year treasury bond yield - CSI 300 dividend yield over the past 12 months) fell to -0.75%, which has fallen below the average of -2 standard deviations in the past three years and is lower than the previous market bottom.
(Image source: Huaxi Securities, "Review of the Characteristics of Several Rounds of A-share Bottoming Market in History", release time: 20240106, no investment recommendation)
After the big fall, in fact, there is no need to be too pessimistic, the break down or the beginning of the market to clear. Theoretically speaking, when the decline reaches a certain magnitude and the transaction congestion returns to desertion, it means that the market chips have been cleared, and the optimistic people enter the market to buy again, and the rebound is not far away.
2►
hovering below 3000 points,
How are investors responding?
In fact, the 3,000 points of the Shanghai Composite Index do not have much substantive significance, but it is a psychological dividing line that many investors attach great importance to, and it is not difficult to understand the pessimistic remarks in the market that have been fermenting recently.
Since June 12, 2008, when the Shanghai Composite Index closed below 3,000 points for the first time, the "3,000 point defense war" has been fought for more than 15 years, and each time it has gone through a certain tug-of-war.
Although the process may be more tortuous and complicated, the market is always ignited in despair, and the "3000 points defense battle" has finally been victorious.
From the perspective of duration, the median duration below 3000 points is 4 trading days, the average is 19 trading days, the shortest duration is only 1 trading day, and the longest is 171 trading days, and the time differentiation is very obvious.
In terms of declines, after the Shanghai Composite Index falls below 3,000 points, there is usually little room for further decline, with the median of the lowest point of 2,905 points and the average of 2,871 points.
(Image source: Everbright Securities Research Institute, "How to look at the market retreating around 3000 points - Strategy Week Special", release time: 20231022, no investment recommendation)
Combined with the law of every time in history near 3000 points, below 3000 points, the basic downside space is limited. The "panic killing" of the market is often a typical feature of the construction of the "market bottom". At present, the domestic economy is recovering steadily, the fundamentals are still quietly picking up, and the probability of the index hovering below 3,000 points for a long time is low.
"Good investments are made in bad times", and the market decline is not only the release of current risks, but also the brewing of future opportunities. History has proven to us time and again that A-shares below 3,000 points have a high probability of losing time and not money.
3►
How do you view the current market environment?
How do investors "get to the bottom"?
Of course, indicators belong to indicators, markets belong to markets, and sentiment belongs to emotions.
After analyzing a lot, the market still hasn't gotten rid of the downturn, and now the mainstream voice is still - this time it's different. The CSI 300 can break the record for three consecutive years, how to ensure that the past value system and cycle law can still be applied?
But there is nothing new under the sun, and similar situations always happen again and again at the bottom of the cycle, like a silent film that is played over and over again.
In the bear market of 2005, the process of falling was long and anxious, and in June, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 1,000 points, and the market was gloomy.
At the moment when the lowest hit 998 points, the few retail investors who still stuck to the brokerage business department were silent at first, and then broke out into long-lasting applause in the dullness. The sadness, frustration, pain, and remorse behind this can not be described in just a few words of light and breeze.
At that time, the stock review headlines of the Securities Journal were - "Core assets collapsed", "The concept of value investment has been subverted", "Frequent positive conditions do not change the weakness of the market", and market confidence was lost.
Nothing is different, every round of declines is the same. Extreme market conditions are often superimposed with multiple negative factors that seemed unsolvable at the time. Each "crisis" narrative seems to be the worst ever.
Silent films are silent, just as the bottom of the market always comes quietly. But at the end of the silent film, the story is very beautiful:
This 998 points is about to become the historical bottom of the next few decades, and the Shanghai Index, which makes investors "mourn more than die", will climb to a peak of 6,000 points in more than two years.
No one can predict when the market will come or not, but it will always be reborn in the end, and people at that time will never know.
Nothing is different, every round of declines is the same. The headline of the stock review 18 years ago does not seem so out of place today. The mentality at the bottom is the same. At that moment, at this moment.
Gathering and dispersing is the main color of life, A-shares have been turbulent for 30 years, and market participants have also come and gone, but what is unbreakable is the law of cycle operation. The end of the fall has always been made of bloody chips, and it is indeed difficult.
But whether you believe it or not, after surviving the sorrow of the bear market and the thorns at the bottom, the bull market will definitely come, "big water and big fish", in the new cycle, high-quality funds are expected to follow the market beta force to hit a new high in net worth.
(Data source: Choice, statistical period: 2001/12/21~2023/5/26, no investment recommendation)
Finally, I would like to end with a quote from the master Peter Lynch:
After the 1987 stock market crash, the Dow Jones fell 508 points in a single day, and investment experts predicted a collapse, but it turned out that despite the 1,000-point plunge (33% from its peak in August), the stock market did not come to the end as expected.
This is just a normal stock market correction, and although it is very large, it is only the latest of 13 stock market corrections in the 20th century that fell by more than 33%.
Although there was another stock market crash of more than 10%, it was only the 41st time in history, or even if it was a stock market crash of more than 33%, it was only the 14th time in history, so there was no fuss.
The longest road also has an end, and the darkest night also welcomes the morning.
Do not pour before the coldest dawn.
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