Stock Market Diary for January 11, 2024
1. Review of the diary of the previous period and yesterday
The diary on the 8th explained that there are four weeks of trading before the Spring Festival, due to the easing of funds after New Year's Day, funds are unwilling to enter, indicating that the stock market is extremely bearish, plus the Spring Festival is closed for 10 days, this year's market is too long, so there will be no market before the Spring Festival, this month is weak and natural, but the continuous big fall, the rebound must still have, the opening of the 9th will continue to fall momentum, at present, in addition to the whole A, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the CSI 2000, the CSI 100, the Shanghai 50 did not hit a new low, other indices have hit a new low, so the 9th these indices will inevitably also hit a new low, will stop falling and stabilize. It is better to have a panic disk. Again, China's stock market will never rise. As for whether the 9-day all-A can stop falling and rebound after hitting a new low, look at the change in volume and energy before 10:00. As for whether there will be a new short-term bottom, the market will basically have results on the 9th.
The diary on the 9th explained that due to the impact of the sharp rise in U.S. stocks, all A rose first and then fell below the lowest point of the last time, so there was no short-term bottoming signal on the 9th, but a yang doji, which is suspected of falling relays. Of course, due to the expectation of a short-term bottoming out after meeting a new low, only a suspicion of a downward relay, we will continue to pay close attention to the amount of energy on the 10th, as well as the support of the lowest point on the 9th, and there is a chance to clarify whether the short-term bottom will be formed again on the 10th. There are two ways to judge, the first is to bottom out strongly, that is, to open flat or open high tomorrow, and close more than 0.7%-1% of the physical yang line, then today is the short-term bottom, and the second is weak. Tomorrow will continue to test today's lowest point, but it will not fall below, and it will always fluctuate above today's lowest point, regardless of the amount of energy changes, and then on the 11th, the amount of yang and yin will be increased, which is also a bottoming signal. On the contrary, if it falls below today's lowest point tomorrow, then the 9th is a downward relay, and the market will continue to find the bottom. On the 10th, the opening of the market directly opened low and dived quickly, directly below the lowest point on the 9th, continued to dive and fell rapidly by 1.67%, and then quickly reversed and turned red and then fell, on the 10th, the disk in addition to the half-hour before 10:00 all A fell below the 9-day low, running below the lowest point, 9:58 back above 1242.566 to the close, has been stable above 1242.566 running, the close is still standing above, although relatively reluctantly. If the half-hour before 10:00 is removed, the operation of the next 3 and a half hours after the 10th is in line with the short-term bottoming signal. Therefore, there are signs of short-term bottoming out on the 10th, but it cannot be confirmed, after all, it fell below yesterday's lowest point, closed out the long lower shadow line and upper shadow line, and the amount of energy has shrunk to 655.9 billion, which is near last year's land volume.
Other indices have fallen below the low point on October 23 last year and continue to hit new lows, all A is still 80 points 6.4% away from the low point of 1162.828 on October 23, why, the main one is the contribution of the new stock listing, the other is the surge in the Beijing Stock Exchange, and the other is the contribution of the CSI 2000, although the CSI 2000 also fell below the last low, but it is also 100 points 4.4% from the low of 2173.98 on October 23. The CSI 2000 Index excludes stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange. Mainly, small-cap stocks are strong and heavyweights are weak. So the All-A Index is still high.
In the near future, the short-term bottom is also about to be bottomed out, due to the large decline in weight, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and other weight indexes have fallen sharply for three consecutive years, so this year's market weight index will close the yang, and the weight stocks will perform this year, so the diary on December 28 last year explained that the stock market really bottomed out and needed the weight index represented by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50. The rebound will not exceed 5 trading days at most. For example, the short-term bottom after December 26 rebounded for four days. It has been stated last week that there will be no market before the Spring Festival, but it is necessary to rebound if it falls too much, but if the weight bottoms out and the volume can be enlarged to more than 900 billion, it is not conducive to the whole A index, and to put it bluntly, it is not conducive to small and medium-sized stocks, which is the rocker effect.
On the 11th, pay close attention to the changes in volume and energy, and will face the test of 623.5 billion land volume at the end of last year, and the lowest land volume last year was less than 600 billion. Due to the long lower shadow line of all A today, the 11th may continue to test today's lowest point, or the 9th diary of the bottoming standard, as long as the 11th does not fall below the 10-day lowest point of 1231.72, the 11th will have a chance to bottom, on the contrary, once it falls below, or continue to find the bottom, but in any case, the short-term bottom within two or three days is inevitable, why is it just a short line, because it is said that there will be no good market before the Spring Festival, at most it is just a rebound. The key is still quantity. There is no one, it is the only one.
Second, the news side
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3. Analysis of today's market trend and market outlook
Today, the ChiNext and the Beijing Stock Exchange opened slightly higher, and other indices opened slightly lower or flat, and all A opened 0.13% lower. After the opening of the market low open high, the morning volume can be extremely reduced by about 11%, but under the extreme shrinkage of the volume, the highest increase at 10:18 in the morning still reached 0.87%, the rebound is actually relatively strong, in the face due to the amount of energy is extremely small, so the regularity of 10:30 before the high point, began to fall, but the morning close is still up 0.65%, the volume can be reduced by 11% compared with yesterday. After the opening of the afternoon market, the volume rose rapidly, after the highest rise of 1.85% at 1:51, it began to fall rapidly, stopped the downward trend at 2:15, and rose slowly until the closing of the whole A rose 1.62% to 1263.116, and today's highest point of 1266.075 broke through the highest point of 1265.494 on the 9th. Other indices are similar, but today's weights are weak, the Shanghai 50 also fell below the last low shortly after the opening, and since then until 9:40 this morning, all indices have fallen below the low of December last year, a new low across the board, so the short-term bottom is a matter of course. In the end, all indices rose in the red today, but due to the weak weight, the weight index closed with a limited increase, so the Shanghai Composite closed up only a small 0.31%, and other mainstream indices all rose by more than 1.47%, and the largest increase in the sub-index was the CSI 200 closing up 1.97%, and the largest increase in the intraday and CSI 1000 was more than 2.15%. Due to the rapid amplification of the trading volume in the afternoon, the closing volume was 719.6 billion, back to more than 700 billion, an increase of 63.7 billion 9.71% from yesterday. Northbound funds also began to accelerate their inflows in the afternoon, with a final inflow of 4.231 billion. Today is an all-round upward trend, with 4,469 stocks rising and 760 stocks falling.
Today's market is in line with the first strong bottoming characteristics described in the 9-day diary, flat open high or high open, rising more than 0.7%-1% is a short-term bottoming signal, but because the 10th fell below the 9-day low, and in line with the 9-day diary description of the second weak short-term bottom, that is, in the 9-day lower shadow line to run, and then the next day a large yang, announcing the short-term bottom. Today, in fact, both are met, and the 10-day diary has already stated that in any case, it will definitely bottom out in the short term in two or three days. Today's announcement of the 10th is a short-term bottom. As for whether it can be bottomed out from the short-term and slowly transformed into a medium- and long-term bottom, it needs to be a little difficult before the Spring Festival. Only by steadily and slowly increasing the volume, that is the fundamental support for the market to fluctuate upward, and suddenly releasing a relative amount of days is not a good thing, such as December 28. Of course, at the bottom after the continuous decline, the sudden amount of heaven is naturally the purpose of grabbing chips, if it is the bottom of the medium and long term, it must be the volume of the rush, but the short-term bottoming out, just a rebound, the volume is generally shipped, the so-called bottom does not rebound only reverse, rebound is not the bottom. As it faces the Spring Festival, it is still judged to be a short-term bottom for the time being. If there are signs of bottoming out in the medium and long term, the diary will explain it in time in the future.
