Recently, the Philippine side has hyped up the US-Philippine military exercises, hoping to overwhelm China at the beginning of the new year. As a result, the United States temporarily changed its mind and let the Philippines show off its foreign appearance. After thinking about it for a few days, the Philippine side changed its mind and still felt that it should continue to talk with China, but because of the loss of face, it could only use the words of the Indonesian president to express its truest thoughts to China.
As the rotating chair of ASEAN last year, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has been actively promoting the resolution of the South China Sea issue, although Jokowi has now handed over the baton to Laos, but in the face of the increasingly complex situation in the South China Sea, Jokowi still went to the Philippines. Before leaving, Jokowi said that the Philippines is an important partner of Indonesia and stressed that Indonesia's investment in the Philippines is also considerable. The South China Sea issue was also one of the important topics he discussed with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos.
At a press conference after the talks, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno announced that he was ready to work with all ASEAN member states, including the Philippines, to finalize the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" as soon as possible, setting a timetable for jointly resolving the South China Sea and other issues. This sentence, although short, contains a lot of information.
【Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno】
First of all, since it is a joint statement by the two sides, it shows that the Philippines is nodding its head on this matter. In other words, the Philippines also agrees with Indonesia's point of view and is willing to sit down with China.
Second, Indonesia has specifically emphasized all ASEAN countries, and there are three meanings here: First, it has made clear to the Philippines that Indonesia will not be a bystander on the South China Sea issue; second, it has told the Philippines that on the South China Sea issue, the attitude of the entire ASEAN is very consistent, and if the Philippines continues to act against China, it will become an "outlier" in ASEAN; third, Indonesia, as the largest country in Southeast Asia, has personally intervened in the president's mediation, which shows that Marcos' move has touched the overall interests of ASEAN. If Marcos continues to be stubborn, time may be running out for the Philippines.
The reason why the Philippines has changed its attitude has to start with the joint cruise with the United States a few days ago.
During the second joint cruise of the United States and the Philippines in the South China Sea, the two sides had already made a big battle, and the Pentagon also personally stepped forward to raise the tone, saying that the United States would send a number of aircraft carriers on this tour, including the USS Carl Vinson, the cruiser USS Princeton, the USS Kidd, and the destroyer USS Strett. In the end, however, the United States dispatched only the destroyer USS Strett, and the subjects of the entire exercise were greatly reduced, and the duration was shortened from the original three days to two days.
[Joint cruise between the Philippines and the United States]
It is worth mentioning that the commander of the western part of the Philippines originally planned to board the USS Carl Vinson to observe fighter take-off and landing training, but only to find that he had been completely fooled. Later, the US side also explained to the Philippine side that it was because of the needs of certain operations that the aircraft carrier did not catch up with the joint cruise, and hoped that the Philippines would understand. However, judging from other news, the United States is actually completely prevaricating the Philippines, and the real reasons are actually the following three aspects.
First of all, on the same day as the US-Philippine military exercise, the PLA Southern Theater also issued an announcement announcing that it would organize naval and air forces to conduct routine patrols in the South China Sea. During this period, we dispatched the Hefei and Huangshan ships to the scene to monitor the scene, which was also the first operation of China's new naval commander, Hu Zhongming. Moreover, in the statement, we rarely used the words 'all under control', indicating that every move of the US-Philippine military exercise is within our line of sight.
Second, China's new defense minister, Dong Jun, has just taken office, and the next step is to arrange a meeting between the Chinese and US defense ministers with the aim of resuming military communication. However, there is an old Chinese saying that a new official takes office with three fires, so as far as Defense Minister Dong Jun is concerned, no matter what emergencies occur in the South China Sea, there is no room for concessions, and US warships will never be allowed to come and invade their homes. The United States, on the other hand, certainly did not want to form a bond with China's defense minister at the beginning, so it came over a little bit to make a circle and give an explanation to the Philippines, but it did not want to develop into a head-on confrontation with China.
[Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.]
In the end, it is the United States that is now completely incapable of opening another front. Now Russia and Ukraine are still in a stalemate, and Europe's fatigue in aid to Ukraine is becoming more and more obvious. In addition, the impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is seriously spilled over, no cargo ship dares to leave the entire Red Sea, and the general election is imminent, the United States actually does not want the Philippines to add trouble to itself in the South China Sea. The Philippines, which has been tricked, can only change its attitude and return to the track of dialogue with China.
But for the Philippines, dialogue is difficult. Since August last year, the Philippines has repeatedly provoked incidents in the South China Sea, and has been notified by the Chinese side at least 10 times. Seven of them occurred in the waters around Second Thomas Shoal and three in Scarborough Shoal and its vicinity. Indonesian President Joko Widodo's visit just gave the Philippines an opportunity to go down the slope, not only to save its own face, but also to send a signal to the Chinese side that it is willing to sit down and talk.
In addition, China's "under control" narrative demonstrates a considerable degree of self-confidence, indicating that it is ready to respond resolutely in accordance with international law and the law if necessary. Such a statement is not merely a language of deterrence, but more strategic, that is, while emphasizing dialogue and cooperation, it will not tolerate those who cross the line.
At present, China and ASEAN have held 21 high-level official meetings on the "guidelines" and officially launched the third reading of the "guidelines", so there is not much time left for the Philippines.