3 drops in 1 year!Deposit interest rate "1 era", where to find financial alternatives?

Do you still remember last year's swipes on social media about the "special forces for deposits" who traveled across provinces by plane and train to save money? With the awakening of the "bloodline" of young people saving money! Everyone began to question the behavior of their parents in saving money from questioning to understanding and then to "true fragrance." However, with the continuous reduction of fixed deposit interest rates, bank interest is not as "fragrant" as before.

In the past 2023, the deposit interest rate of commercial banks has experienced "three reductions in one year", taking the deposit interest rates of the four major banks as an example, the current one-year and three-year time deposit interest rates are 1.45% and 1.95% respectively. With the advent of the "1 era" of deposit interest rates, depositors will be able to get less and less interest in the future, and in the face of long-term declining deposit interest rates, if they want to obtain long-term stable returns, they have to consider new investment varieties.

Why are deposit rates falling again and again?

How much is the interest of saving 100,000 yuan for a year?

The most intuitive feeling of interest rate cuts for investors who keep their money in banks is that the income has become less. Let's simply calculate how much interest will be reduced after 100,000 yuan deposited in the bank for 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years only after experiencing 3 interest rate cuts in 2023?

Data source: the official websites of the four major banks

Deposit for 1 year: 100,000 yuan * (1.65%-1.45%) = 200 yuan

Deposit for 3 years: 100,000 yuan * (2.6%-1.95%) * 3 = 1,950 yuan

Deposit for 5 years: 100,000 yuan * (2.65-2.00%) * 5 = 3,250 yuan

We can intuitively see that the interest of 100,000 yuan deposit for 1 year is 200 yuan less, the interest for 3 years is 1950 yuan less, and the interest for 5 years is 3250 yuan less. In the future, based on bank operations and loose monetary policy, there is room for further reduction in deposit rates.

Why are deposit rates lowered?

Since the beginning of 2023, the interest margins of many banks have been under pressure, and as of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the net interest margin of large commercial banks has fallen to a record low of 1.66%. In the context of the decline in mortgage interest rates, the yield on the asset side of banks continues to decline, and commercial banks can reduce the cost of liabilities, help maintain the basic stability of interest margins and reasonable profit growth, and enhance the sustainability of serving the real economy and the robustness of high-quality development.

On the one hand, commercial banks are an important subject to participate in credit creation, and it is necessary to create a stable operating environment, and the uncoordinated interest rate policy is easy to breed the problem of "inverted deposit and loan interest rates", which in turn leads to arbitrage behavior and the phenomenon of capital idling; on the other hand, residents' willingness to save has continued to rise, and the rate of money circulation has dropped sharply, and lowering deposit interest rates can promote residents' willingness to increase consumption and investment to a certain extent.

Who will fill the demand for stable investment?

Pure debt funds may be a good place to go

Most investors who are keen to save have a low risk appetite or do not know much about wealth management products. In recent years, with the issuance of new regulations on asset management, bank wealth management has transformed to net worth, and at the same time, the return on assets that are certain in the era of low interest rates has declined simultaneously. The market needs products with better scalability and security to fill the gap, and the characteristics of pure bond funds are a good choice to replace deposits to a certain extent, and at the same time, they can also be used as an effective supplement to a new type of idle money management products for investors, and a stable financial management tool with low volatility and high liquidity.

A pure bond fund does not invest in the stock market, but only invests in bonds, and the main sources of income from bonds are coupon income and capital gains. In the long run, coupon income is a straight line with a certain slope, although the short-term is mixed with small fluctuations, but in the long run, the long-term certainty is still high.

As of the third quarter of 2023, in addition to money market funds, pure bond funds have become the varieties with the largest incremental contribution in 2023, far surpassing passive equity funds and fixed income + funds, with an increase of 730.86 billion, 452.59 billion, and 25.99 billion respectively in the first three quarters. (Source: Wind)

Judging from the "long years" of the past 10 years, the performance of pure debt funds has been remarkable. Due to the different durations of investment varieties, short-term bonds have a short duration, are closer to maturity, and have relatively higher certainty, which is mainly characterized by relatively small fluctuations. In general, short-term bond funds are more likely to be less risky than medium- and long-term bond funds. Medium- and long-term bond funds pursue a relatively long-term absolute return, and the yield of medium- and long-term bond funds is generally higher than that of short-term bond funds.

Performance of Pure Debt Funds in the Past 10 Years (2014-2023)

Data source: Wind, statistical period 2014-1-1 to 2023-12-31. Historical performance of the index is not indicative of future performance and is not indicative of the performance of specific fund products.

For investors with general liquidity requirements, short-term bond funds are a high-quality choice for idle money management, and for investors who "seek progress while maintaining stability", medium- and long-term bond funds are also a good choice for increasing stable returns.

How will the bond market go in 2024?

Unfinished debts?

Looking forward to the whole year of 2024, the domestic economy is still in the transition period of old and new momentum, and it is expected that the overall recovery will be weak, and the policy will continue to reduce the nominal interest rate to boost demand. Overseas, with the Fed's monetary policy pivot, the constraints of external factors on domestic monetary policy are expected to be significantly eased. Domestically, the resilience of the economy is not expected to be high, and the overall situation will improve slightly compared with 2023, amid a slight convergence in the decline in real estate, the overall flat infrastructure, and high corporate inventories. Under the baseline scenario, interest rates may show an N-shaped trend, and under the law of early development and early effect of monetary policy, the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter is the window period for monetary policy easing, and the logic of bond market strength is smoother, and more attention can be paid to structural opportunities in the market in the second half of the year.

Standing at the beginning of the new year, most institutions believe that interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in 2024, so it is still a good opportunity to allocate the bond base at the current point in time.

Based on the analysis of credit and inflation, Industrial Securities believes that the 10-year treasury bond yield will still fall in 2024, but it may be disturbed by the replenishment cycle in the downward trend.

From the perspective of the long-term trend of GDP, Huafu Securities analyzes that the potential growth rate of mainland GDP is in a downward long-term trend, which also means that the long-term trend of the downward trend of the interest rate pivot has not changed, and there is a high probability that the interest rate environment will remain low for a long time.

Minsheng Securities believes that considering that the overall tone of the policy side is to seek progress in stability and seek stability through progress, the economy may be repaired in waves in 2024, which determines that the uncertainty of the bond market will still exist in 2024. The monetary environment will remain flexible and moderately accommodative, and it is expected that the bond market will remain in a bull market in 2024, but this bull market may be structural, especially considering the further deepening of the debt policy and the implementation of new capital rules.

If you want to get on the bus and are afraid of stock market shocks, you may wish to consider the above products for spare money management to better balance account fluctuations~

Risk Warning: This material is not intended as any legal document, and all information or opinions expressed in the material do not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax final operation advice, and our company does not make any guarantee for the final operation advice on the content of the information. Under no circumstances shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any content in this material. The mainland fund has been in operation for a relatively short period of time and does not reflect all stages of the development of the stock market. The market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.

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(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([ data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1);-weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}