1年3降！存款利率“1时代” ，理财替代何处寻？

大家还记得去年在社交平台上刷到坐着飞机火车跨省存钱的“存款特种兵”吗？随着年轻人存钱的“血脉”觉醒！大家对父母辈存钱的行为开始从质疑到理解再到“真香”。不过，随着定期存款利率连连下调，吃银行利息也没从前那么“香”了。

就在刚刚过去的2023年，商业银行存款利率经历了“1年3降”，以四大行存款挂牌利率为例，目前一年期、三年期定期存款挂牌利率分别为1.45%、1.95%。存款利率“1时代”的来临，对于存款人来说未来能够稳稳拿到的利息越来越少，面对长期下行的存款利率，想要获得长期稳健收益，不得不考虑新的投资品种。

存款利率为何一降再降？

10万块钱存一年利息多少？

利率下调对于把钱存银行的投资者，最直观的感受就是收益变少了。我们简单计算一下，10万块存入银行1年期、3年期、5年期，仅在2023年一年经历3次降息后分别减少多少利息？

数据来源：四大行官网

存1年：100000元*（1.65%-1.45%）=200元

存3年：100000元*（2.6%-1.95%）*3=1950元

存5年：100000元*（2.65-2.00%）*5=3250元

我们可以直观的看到：10万元存1年利息少200元，存3年利息少1950元，存5年利息少3250元。未来基于银行经营以及宽松的货币政策，存款利率还有进一步下调空间。

存款利率为何下调？

2023年以来，多家银行的息差承压，截至2023年3季度末，大型商业银行净息差下行至1.66%，已降至历史低位。在房贷利率下降的背景下，银行资产端收益率不断下行，商业银行下调存款挂牌利率，可以压降负债成本，有助于保持息差基本稳定和利润合理增长，增强服务实体经济的持续性和高质量发展的稳健性。

当然，更深层的意义在于“稳增长”的经济背景下，一方面，商业银行是参与信用创造的重要主体，创造平稳的运行环境很必要，利率政策不协同容易滋生“存贷利率倒挂”问题，进而引发套利行为和资金空转现象；另一方面，居民的储蓄意愿持续上行，货币流通速率大幅下降，调降存款利率在一定程度上能促进居民提高消费和投资的意愿。

谁来补位稳健投资需求？

纯债基金或成好去处

热衷于储蓄的投资者大多数风险偏好较低，又或者对理财产品的了解不多。近年来，随着资管新规的发布，银行理财向净值化转型；与此同时，低利率时代确定性的资产收益同步下降。市场需要有更好延展性和安全性的产品来补位，纯债基金的特性在一定程度上是替代存款的不错选择，同时也可以作为投资者新一类的闲钱管理类产品的有效补充，低波动、高流动性的稳健理财工具。

纯债基金指不投股市，只投资债券，债券的收益来源主要是票息收入和资本利得。通常情况下，只要债券没有兑付困难，持有到期就不会有损失，长期看，票息收入就是一条以一定斜率向上的直线，尽管短期夹杂小幅波动，但长期来看长期确定性依然较高。

截至2023年三季报，除货币基金外，纯债基金成为2023年增量贡献最大的品种，远超被动权益基金和固收+基金，前三季度分别增长7308.6亿、4525.9亿、259.9亿。（数据来源：Wind）

从过去10年这段“漫长的岁月”来看，纯债型基金表现可圈可点。由于投资品种的久期不同，短债久期短，离到期时间更近，确定性相对更高，其表现出来的特点主要是波动相对较小。一般情况下，短债基金风险大概率小于中长债基金。而中长债基金更追求相对较长时间的绝对收益，拉长投资时间来看，中长债基金的收益率普遍高于短债基金。

纯债型基金近10年表现（2014-2023）

数据来源：Wind，统计区间2014-1-1至2023-12-31。指数历史业绩不预示未来表现，也不代表具体基金产品表现。

对于流动性要求一般的投资者来说，短债基金是闲钱理财的优质之选；对于“稳中求进”的投资者来说，中长债基金也是增厚稳健收益的不错选择。

2024年债市怎么走？

债牛未尽？

展望2024全年，国内经济仍处于新旧动能切换期，预计整体以弱复苏为主，政策还将继续降低名义利率以提振需求，降准、降息预期升温，对应利率中枢还有进一步下行空间。海外方面，随着美联储货币政策转向，外部因素对国内货币政策的约束有望得到明显缓解。国内方面，在地产降幅小幅收敛、基建整体持平、企业库存较高的情况下，经济向上修复弹性预计不高，整体状况较 2023 年小幅改善。基准情形下，利率或呈N型走势，货币政策早发力早见效的规律下，一季度至二季初为货币政策加码宽松的窗口期，债市走强逻辑更为顺畅，下半年可以更多关注市场的结构性机会。

站在新一年起点，多数机构认为2024年利率有望震荡下行，因此当前时间点配置债基仍是比较好的机会。

兴业证券基于对于信贷和通胀的分析认为，2024年10年期国债收益率中枢仍将下行，但在下行趋势中或受到来自补库周期的扰动。

华福证券从GDP长期走势角度分析，综合来看大陆GDP潜在增速正处于下行的长期趋势中，这也意味利率中枢下行的长期趋势未变，且大概率将较长时间保持低利率环境。

民生证券认为考虑到政策端总体定调为稳中求进、以进求稳，2024年经济或将呈波浪式修复，这便决定2024年债市的不确定性仍会存在。货币环境仍将灵活适度偏宽松，预计2024年债市仍将处于牛市当中，只是这个牛市或许是结构性的，尤其考虑到化债政策的进一步深化以及资本新规的实施。

如果你想上车又害怕股市震荡，不妨可以考虑以上产品进行闲钱管理，更好地平衡账户波动哦~

风险提示：本资料不作为任何法律文件，资料中的所有信息或所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，我公司不就资料中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本资料中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。大陆基金运作时间较短，不能反映股市发展的所有阶段。市场有风险，入市需谨慎。

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.15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}