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The era of fuel vehicles is not over yet, and although global sales of new energy vehicles are soaring, the sales of the six major Japanese automakers such as Toyota in the U.S. market in 2023 are showing a strong growth momentum.
On January 3, data released by six Japanese automakers, including Toyota, showed that new car sales in the U.S. market reached 5.53 million units in 2023, an increase of 16% from 2022. This growth trend shows that although new energy vehicles have received more and more attention, there is still a strong market demand for fuel vehicles. General Motors (GM) also achieved a 14% increase in sales in 2023, further confirming its position in the market for gasoline-powered vehicles.
In addition to Toyota and General Motors, the sales of the other four automakers in the U.S. market are also increasing. Nissan's sales increased by 23 percent, Subaru sold 632,000 units, up 13.6 percent year-on-year, Mazda increased by 23 percent, and Mitsubishi Motors increased by 2 percent. Subaru in particular is loved on the East Coast in the U.S. market for its full-time all-wheel drive model, which excels in winter blizzards.
Data shows that in 2022, Toyota's sales reached 10 million units, while the sales of electric cars were only 24,000 units. Compared to new energy vehicle companies such as Tesla and BYD, Toyota's electric car sales are significantly lower. Akio Toyoda, the former chairman of Toyota, even said in an interview with the media that Japan will never lag behind in terms of technical capabilities, but foreign automakers like Tesla and BYD have shown a stronger presence in the field of electric vehicles, and these electric technologies are very low-level.
At the G7 summit after the Tokyo Motor Show, Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda once again expressed doubts about electric vehicles. He called electric cars a "low-grade product" and called for a boycott. He pointed out that if all the world's cars were replaced with electric vehicles, a lot of electricity would be required, putting huge strain on the grid and potentially leading to more carbon emissions. In addition, the production process of electric vehicles consumes a lot of energy and resources, from lithium mining to the disposal of used batteries, which can cause environmental damage.
Looking back at the new energy vehicle industry:
-- Global sales of new energy vehicles have grown steadily
ACCORDING TO EV VOLUMES STATISTICS, GLOBAL NEW ENERGY VEHICLE SALES GREW RAPIDLY BETWEEN 2014 AND 2022. In 2022, the global sales of new energy vehicles will be about 10.522 million units, an increase of 55% from 2021. Although the growth rate is down from 109% in 2021, it is still at a high level in the past nine years. The regional growth pattern of new energy vehicles is changing, and the European market has seen only 15% more electric vehicle sales in 2022 than in 2021 after two consecutive years of significant growth. Weakness and component shortages in the overall automotive market have taken their toll, while EV sales in the U.S. and Canada are up 48% year-over-year. In the second half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the global new energy vehicle market showed weak signs of recovery.
-- Pure electric vehicles are widely welcomed by consumers in China
From 2018 to 2022, the mainland pure electric vehicle market has developed rapidly, and the production and sales of pure electric vehicles have increased rapidly. For the whole year of 2022, the production of pure electric vehicles in mainland China reached 5.467 million units, a year-on-year increase of 98.01%, and the sales volume was 5.365 million units, a year-on-year increase of 96.23%. Compared with 2018, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles in mainland China have increased by more than five times. In the first half of 2023, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles in mainland China will be 2.747 million units and 2.719 million units, respectively, an increase of 30.3% and 31.9% compared with the same period in 2022.
-- Trend forecast of China's new energy vehicle industry
With the delisting of new energy policy subsidies in mainland China and the market entering a stage of transformation, the future trend of the new energy vehicle industry in mainland China is as follows:
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. energy consumption market is expected to be dominated by oil and gas by mid-century, despite the further rollout of electric vehicles. According to the report, by 2050, U.S. light-fuel vehicles will still account for 79% of the consumer market, compared to 92% today.
According to the forecast of the Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, by 2025, the sales of fuel vehicles will still account for 53.46% of the annual new car sales. By 2030, this proportion will drop to 28.18%. In addition, it is expected that in seven years, for every 10 new cars sold in the Chinese market, 3 will still be ICE vehicles.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
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