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When two old neighbors stand in front of a common wall, their eyes pierce the wind and rain of history and gaze at the fruits of the future - this is not a simple mutual aid, but the wisdom of survival.
How will China-Vietnam cooperation, a proposition with a long historical origin, sprout and grow in the delicate climate of the global economy?
Can we witness a new ecology that avoids harvesting in this land? This is not only a contest of geopolitics, but also a game of wisdom and strategy.
Can't we imagine what kind of harmony two former rivals can perform together on the chessboard of the world?
First, new challenges for the world economy
On a distant planet, there is a creature that lives on debt, and they call it "debtors".
The United States on Earth seems to have taken inspiration from the planet, and the size of the national debt has ballooned to a staggering $34 trillion.
If this number were lined up in a row of coins, it might be able to circle the Earth's equator for an unknown number of times.
However, how much of these coins are real money, I am afraid that even the US Treasury Secretary will have to pinch his fingers.
This "debt-star" lifestyle is both staggering and worrying for other players in the global economy.
The United States, with its position as a global monetary hegemon, influences the world economy through various fiscal and monetary policies.
It's like a child who likes to splash water in the pool, whether everyone else wants to do it or not, and has to go through a "spa treatment".
Unfortunately, Vietnam became the little friend who was inadvertently splashed with water in this game.
While the United States is shouting at home to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown, global markets are being invited to a "crazy tea party."
It's just that this tea party, the teapot is brewed in the expectation of tightening and the uncertainty of the market.
Not only that, the footsteps of the 2024 U.S. election are approaching, and investors in the financial market may have to prepare their "lightning rods" in case they are hit by political "mouth cannons".
Vietnam seems to have been forced into a corner in this grand tea party. The footsteps of the withdrawal of foreign capital are no less than an economic "great escape" for Vietnam.
And this wave of withdrawal, like a debt sword of the United States, ruthlessly cuts the hope of Vietnam's economy.
This situation begs the question of whether Vietnam will really face a 20-year recession, as predicted in the article.
In fact, the U.S. debt sword is not being swung at Vietnam alone, but its impact is reverberating throughout the world.
Not just Vietnam, but many countries are pondering how to maintain their economic sovereignty and stability in a seemingly "dollarized" world.
So, how will Vietnam respond to this debt storm, and will it be able to find a secret way to escape the "harvest"?
2. The Waterloo of Vietnam's economy
Imagine if Vietnam's economy were a concert, and the show would be a note out of tune and a few strings broken.
Vietnam, once internationally acclaimed for its fast-growing, export-driven economy, is now facing an embarrassing downward adjustment in exports.
The main theme of its exit seems to be disturbed by some discordant external factors, making the whole economic symphony sound a little unbearable to look at.
The problem of capital outflow in the Vietnamese economy is like an uninvited guest lying comfortably on the sofa while constantly complaining that the host's tea is not sweet enough.
The withdrawal of foreign capital has caused pressure on the local currency to depreciate, and at the same time, the central bank's monetary policy has become like a tightrope.
A delicate balance needs to be struck between promoting exports and preventing financial outflows. This is not a difficult action, it can be called a "killer stunt" in the economic world.
In order to encourage investment and consumption, the central bank had to resort to "interest rate cuts".
But interest rate cuts are like a double-edged sword, on the one hand, they can reduce the debt burden of enterprises and stimulate market vitality.
On the other hand, it has the potential to trigger inflation, making the renminbi valuable as fast as a running account.
For Vietnam, this is undoubtedly a seemingly less painful path between a dilemma. However, whether a rate cut can really be a lifesaver for stabilizing the economy, or just a small comfort before the storm, the answer is still unclear.
It has to be said that the overall background of international politics and economy is like an invisible war, and all countries are secretly competing for their own interests.
In this war, foreign capital has withdrawn not only because of the debt sword of the United States, but also because of the political trends and market expectations in other countries.
All these have inadvertently affected Vietnam's economic lifeline, making Vietnam walk on a tightrope and may fall into the quagmire if it is not careful.
Against such a chaotic economic backdrop, people can't help but wonder if Vietnam's economic ship can stabilize this sudden storm of capital outflows.
Will Vietnam be able to find the magic hand that can hold up the economic umbrella next?
3. A 20-year recession prophecy?
If someone predicts to you on the street that you will experience a 20-year recession, you may think that they are a fortune teller who has traveled through time and space.
For Vietnam, however, the prophecy was not a street soothsayer, but a warning from the United States, the world's largest economy.
It's like being at a big banquet and the host suddenly tells the guests, "The party is over, you might be ready to go home." ”
Such an early warning undoubtedly gave Vietnam a surprise with a cold shower.
America's debt problem is like a giant gray rhinoceros, hunking unwielding prominently in the center of the global economy, ready to trigger a stampede.
For Vietnam, the gray rhinoceros's footsteps are getting closer, and its influence is enough to cast a shadow of uncertainty over Vietnam's future development.
Every change in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy casts a pebble on the surface of Vietnam's economy, stirring up ripples at every level.
Vietnam's economic development story was a gripping epic, but now it seems to be about to add a dramatic interlude.
Like the characters in "A Song of Ice and Fire", Vietnam is also finding its own way to survive in the global political and economic situation.
With the strength of the US dollar and the fluctuation of international trade, Vietnam's export enterprises seem to be standing on an ice field, facing a possible long cold.
Controversy always comes with prophecies, especially one about a 20-year recession.
Some people say that predictions are like predictions on a miniature golf course – the target is not accurate, the power is insufficient, and the ball just won't hit the hole.
Yet even the most pessimistic prophecy has a rationale behind it.
The warning given by the United States is undoubtedly based on its own debt-ridden status quo and the fragility of the global economy. But will Vietnam really go down the path of this prophecy?
On this globalized stage, Vietnam seems to need to choreograph a new dance move.
With the restructuring of global supply chains and the shift of economic gravity, Vietnam may be able to find new opportunities.
Just like those players who find loopholes in the game and make a lot of money, Vietnam may also find a shortcut to prosperity in this economic game.
So how will Vietnam respond to the U.S. warning, and is a 20-year recession really doomed, or is it just one of many possibilities for the future?
4. A way out to avoid harvesting?
On the chessboard of the global economy, Sino-Vietnamese cooperation is like two old neighbors starting to grow vegetables together, with the aim of stockpiling enough food before the harsh winter comes.
They all know that they can be blown away by the cold wind if they go it alone, but if they join forces, they can at least build a shed to withstand a few gusts of wind and rain.
This is not only a win-win situation between the two countries, but also a stable way to survive in the context of global economic uncertainty.
The relationship between China and Vietnam is sometimes like that kind of complicated kinship, where there have been disputes in the past, but in reality they have to communicate with each other.
Vietnam's "dodge from harvesting" may be aimed at strengthening economic cooperation with China.
For example, by joining the Belt and Road Initiative, Vietnam can access financial and technical support for infrastructure development.
It's like two people sharing a room together, and although there will be occasional arguments over who used whose toothpaste, at least half the rent can be saved.
But let's face it, collaboration is never as simple as "hello, hello, hello, everyone".
The new chapter of Sino-Vietnamese cooperation also has its complexities, like a business in which both sides have an abacus.
Vietnam needs to ensure that it is not just a pawn of China's expanding influence, but an equal partner.
In the process, Vietnam's strategy can be like dancing on the fringes.
It is necessary to cooperate with China without becoming overly dependent, while at the same time being careful to maintain a balanced relationship with other major powers.
It may sound more difficult than reaching the sky, but in reality, Vietnam has shown considerable diplomatic flexibility and strategic endurance in this regard.
Overall, will the new chapter of China-Vietnam cooperation bring a ray of vitality to Vietnam's economy, or will it just be a "dance"?
Can it really be a way out to avoid being "harvested" by global powers?
It all depends on how Vietnam can defend its interests in the great power game while maintaining its economic independence and autonomy.
After all, even the best neighbor can't pay all the bills for you.
In this game of international cooperation, will Vietnam be able to dance skillfully, maintaining its own rhythm without stepping on the footsteps of other countries?
epilogue
On the stage of state-to-state interdependence and cooperation, China-Vietnam relations are like a symphony of twists and turns, full of complex chords and unexpected transpositions.
Their cooperation is not only a reflection of the wisdom and strategy of the two countries, but also a thoughtful consideration for the future.
Can this cross-border cooperation be a talisman to avoid being harvested by the economies of the great powers, and can it remain resilient in the global economic tide and become a new model of mutual benefit?
The new chapter of China-Vietnam cooperation is not only a matter between the two countries, but also makes us think about how we can collectively weave a web of survival that is both resilient and warm in this interconnected world.
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