The dawn of sodium-ion battery industrialization is coming, but the price of lithium has shrunk sharply.
Text | Lu Yaning
Edit | Su Jianxun
The industrialization of sodium-ion batteries has once again taken a key step.
At the end of 2023, the news of "getting on the car" in the field of sodium-ion batteries has come for two consecutive days:
On December 27, 2023, Zhongke Haina announced that the sodium-electric version of the Huaxian electric vehicle jointly launched by the company and JAC Yttrium has rolled off the assembly line on the same day, and it is expected to start mass delivery in January 2024, which is also the world's first sodium-ion battery production car.
On December 28, 2023, the first sodium-ion battery pure electric A00 model jointly launched by Funeng Technology and Jiangling Group New Energy Vehicles was also officially rolled off the assembly line.
In the past two years, the continuous shortage of global lithium resources and high prices have made sodium-ion batteries as an alternative to lithium batteries, quickly reaping a wave of market heat. 2023 is known as the "first year of sodium-ion batteries" in the industry, emerging sodium battery companies have frequently received financing, and lithium battery companies and vehicle manufacturers have also successively deployed in the field of sodium-ion batteries.
In February 2023, Zhongke Haina and Sihao New Energy jointly released the industry's first sodium-ion battery test vehicle, in March, Yadea released a two-wheeled vehicle equipped with sodium batteries, and in April, CATL announced that its sodium-ion battery will be launched on Chery models for the first time. It was not until the end of the year that the sodium-ion battery was finally mass-produced and installed.
In less than a year, the sodium-ion battery "got on the car" and went through the process of testing, verification and first mass production, which can be described as fast.
But the crisis has also been accompanied by a sharp decline in lithium prices since the second half of last year, which has significantly weakened the cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries, making them encounter a basin of cold water on the eve of industrialization. When the dawn of industrialization meets the cost battle, how can sodium-ion batteries fight against "lithium"?
Zhongke Haina and JAC Yttrium are jointly launched sodium electric version of the Flower Fairy electric vehicle. Source: Zhongke Haina
Sodium-ion battery on the tuyere
Sodium ions have a similar "origin" to lithium and belong to the same main group of elements, so they have similar physical and chemical properties, and they both exhibit "rocking chair" electrochemical charging and discharging behavior in battery work.
The research and development of lithium-ion batteries and sodium-ion batteries began almost at the same time, both began in the 70s of the 20th century. However, due to technical bottlenecks and performance gaps at that time, sodium-ion batteries stayed in the laboratory stage for a long time and failed to be widely used.
Since the beginning of 2021, lithium prices have soared, and sodium-ion batteries, which have been running for 30 years, have finally come to the fore and ushered in an explosive period.
From the perspective of manufacturing process, sodium-ion batteries can be compatible with the production equipment and process of lithium batteries, and lithium battery manufacturers can quickly deploy production capacity by switching production lines. As lithium prices continue to rise, sodium-ion batteries have become an alternative to lithium batteries in some scenarios.
In addition, compared with the scarce lithium resources, the global sodium reserves are more abundant. The continental sodium reserves are also obviously dominant, accounting for about 22% of the global reserves. In addition, the dependence of lithium resources on the mainland is still very high, and the development of sodium electricity is even more necessary for the strategic consideration of not being "stuck".
How sodium-ion batteries work. Image source: Zhongke Haina
From the perspective of battery performance itself, the safety and stability of sodium-ion batteries are its outstanding advantages. Especially in terms of high and low temperature performance, sodium-ion batteries have a wider operating temperature range, can work normally in the temperature range of -40 °C to 80 °C, and the capacity retention rate is close to 90% in the environment of -20 °C, which is better than that of lithium batteries.
At the same time, the internal resistance of sodium-ion batteries is higher than that of lithium-ion batteries, and the instantaneous heat generation is less in the case of short circuit, the temperature rise is lower, and the thermal runaway temperature is higher than that of lithium batteries, which is less prone to potential safety hazards such as fire and explosion.
In 2023, there will be good news for sodium-ion batteries. Both traditional lithium battery manufacturers and emerging lithium battery manufacturers have successively increased their layout, and sodium-ion batteries are constantly in the process of R&D and industrialization.
Battery manufacturers such as CATL, EVE Lithium Energy, Penghui Energy, Huayang Co., Ltd., and Rongbai Technology have successively announced plans for sodium-ion batteries and electrode materials, and said that they will devote themselves to the industrialization of sodium batteries upstream and downstream. In terms of automakers, domestic automakers such as BYD, JAC, Jiangling, and Chery, as well as a number of overseas automakers, have also indicated that they will introduce sodium-ion batteries in the passenger car market.
According to the statistics of the senior industry and research institute, the number of enterprises in the industrial chain of sodium-ion batteries has exceeded 100. From 2023 to 2025, the effective production capacity of sodium-ion battery companies will reach 19GWh, 25GWh, and 60GWh respectively.
On April 19, 2023, at the Shanghai Auto Show, CATL exhibited sodium-ion batteries. Source: Visual China
However, sodium-ion batteries still have a core shortcoming, that is, energy density. Because the radius of sodium ions is larger than that of lithium ions, the energy contained in sodium ions at the same mass is relatively low, which makes the energy density of sodium-ion batteries inherently inferior to that of lithium batteries. This also determines the application field of sodium electricity, which will inevitably be locked in the scenario of "low energy density requirements".
The world's first two sodium-ion battery vehicles to roll off the assembly line this time are also positioned as short-range models with low range.
According to the press release, Zhongke Haina and JAC Yttrium are jointly launched as a sodium-electric version of the Flower Fairy electric vehicle, with a range of 252 kilometers. The sodium-ion battery pure electric A00 model launched by Funeng Technology and Jiangling Group - JMC Yizhi EV3 (Youth Edition) has a range of 251 kilometers.
"After the sodium-ion battery technology matures, it will definitely eat part of the cake in the lithium iron phosphate market, such as the part of micro electric vehicles, which will be the world of sodium electricity in the future. Mo Ke, founder and president of True Lithium Research, told 36 Carbon.
In the field of two-wheeled vehicles and tricycles, Moke believes that sodium-ion batteries will steal the share of lead-acid batteries, because in the case of comparable costs, the energy density of sodium batteries is higher than that of lead-acid batteries, and it is expected to replace lead-acid batteries.
"When sodium electricity matures, it's basically the time when lead-acid batteries come to an end. Moko said.
In addition, sodium-ion batteries also have a role to play in the field of energy storage. Based on the excellent low-temperature efficiency and cycling performance of sodium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries are also expected to become an important supplement to lithium batteries in scenarios with high safety requirements such as household energy storage and industrial and commercial energy storage in the future.
After the collapse of lithium prices, sodium electricity will decline before it is fired?
If the rise of sodium-ion batteries is to take advantage of the "crazy rise in lithium prices", then the collapse of lithium prices now will inevitably reduce the momentum of sodium-ion batteries.
In 2023, the price of lithium carbonate will fall by more than 80% for the whole year, which will cause the cost of lithium battery cells to fall sharply, which is rare in the entire commodity market.
On January 4, according to the data released by Shanghai Ganglian, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 101,000 yuan/ton. At this time last year, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was about 500,000 yuan/ton. Under the situation of overcapacity, the downward trend of lithium prices will continue until a new balance between supply and demand is established.
The falling price of lithium carbonate has undoubtedly brought a critical blow to the newly popular sodium-ion battery.
"If the price of lithium carbonate reaches 200,000 yuan/ton, the marginal cost of sodium-ion batteries can be about 24% ahead, if the price of lithium carbonate drops to 100,000 yuan/ton, the marginal cost of sodium-ion batteries is about 12% ahead, and if the price of lithium carbonate returns to 50,000 yuan/ton, sodium-ion batteries are only about 5% ahead of the marginal cost. Wang Zixuan, chairman of Zhejiang Qingna, said at the high-tech sodium electricity summit held in April 2023.
In the first two years of lithium prices, sodium-ion batteries, as a new technology to alleviate the "lithium price cost anxiety", quickly became a "sweet spot". However, when the price of lithium falls rapidly, the cost advantage of sodium electricity is no longer obvious.
"This year, it is obvious that the discussion of sodium-ion batteries has decreased a little, mainly because the price of lithium has fallen too hard. An industry insider told 36 Carbon.
Lithium carbonate price chart in the past two years. Source: Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network
On January 4, the leader of the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry, Duofluoride, said on the interactive platform that the company has completed the construction of the sodium-ion battery research and development system and built a sodium-ion battery pilot production line. At present, the sharp decline in lithium carbonate has led to the weakening of the cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries, and the company has postponed the progress of commercial production, but R&D and cost reduction are still in full swing.
Huang Mengdan, an analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, predicts that due to the sharp drop in lithium prices, the actual output of sodium power companies this year may be less than planned, and the market is expected to be relatively more cautious. However, in the long run, combined with factors such as differentiated competition and macro strategic considerations for lithium and sodium, sodium-ion batteries still have a huge market space, and the mass production trend will definitely not change.
At present, sodium-ion batteries are still in the transition stage from R&D to industrialization. Although sodium electricity is compatible with the use of lithium battery production equipment, the industry has not yet formed a sound supply chain. In particular, the battery material system has not yet reached an industry consensus, and various manufacturers are also competing in the choice of technical paths.
Huang Mengdan told 36 Carbon that at present, sodium-ion batteries have not yet formed a stable process route and raw material selection, and the cathode materials are layered transition metal oxides, Prussian blue (white) compounds, and polyanionic compounds, and the anode materials are mainly hard carbon. Under different material systems, the products of different sodium electric enterprises will also have performance differences. Each is still in its own stage of exploration, and they are all looking for an optimal route.
Moke also believes that the main breakthrough point for the mass production of sodium-ion batteries is in the material system. In particular, the battery anode materials based on hard carbon, sodium and lithium batteries do not have much intersection, and they basically need to be redeveloped.
"Sodium electrode materials are currently limited by the lack of mainstream carbon source raw materials. Nowadays, the more mature industry is to use biomass carbon as anode materials, such as straw, coconut shell, etc. However, when it is to be applied on a large scale, the source and cost of these biomass raw materials are problems that need to be solved. He said.
In addition, low energy density is still a difficulty that sodium electricity needs to break through. Although sodium-ion batteries can give priority to scenarios with lower energy density requirements. But for any battery technology to further expand the market, increasing energy density is a must.
When the boost from external lithium prices weakens significantly, the future will be a time to test the strength of sodium battery products. This also forces sodium battery players to speed up internal technology iteration and verification, in order to take the lead before the sodium electricity market pattern is formed.
"The next two years will still be a low-price cycle for lithium prices, and sodium-ion batteries will basically not achieve cost advantages. But as far as battery technology itself is concerned, the past two years are the window period for the development of sodium electricity, that is, the stage of practicing 'internal strength'. Enterprises need to grasp the two years to improve the maturity of technology, reduce costs, and do a good job in market verification. When lithium prices enter the next upward cycle, it is time for sodium electricity to take off. Moko said.