On December 29, 2023 local time, Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, and many other places were attacked by Russian missiles and drones. The commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny posted on social media that the number of attack drones and missiles used by the Russian army in air strikes that day reached 158, of which the number of missiles of various types exceeded 120.
On January 5, 2024 local time, in Belgorod, Russia, the Ukrainian side launched an attack on Belgorod Oblast, resulting in 2 injuries and damage to some buildings and more than 30 vehicles. Surging image diagram
Ukraine launched an attack on the Russian city of Belgorod on December 30 after receiving "the largest airstrike since the beginning of the conflict". The Russian side said that this was one of the deadliest attacks on Russian territory since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and then announced retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian military targets.
At the beginning of 2024, the confrontation between the two sides has become increasingly fierce. In the past few days, the Ukrainian army has launched attacks on Donetsk, Crimea, Belgorod and other places, while the Russian army has carried out air strikes on Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv City and other places in Ukraine. Under the fire, Russia and Ukraine achieved the largest prisoner exchange since the conflict on January 3 under the mediation of the United Arab Emirates.
At the same time, the prospects for peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain slim. Russian President Vladimir Putin said a few days ago that Russia hopes to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible, but it must be based on Russia's conditions, and Russia will not give up its position. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine did not see any signs of peace, and that Ukraine would "unleash its anger" on Russia in the new year.
The Russian army has made progress in eastern Ukraine, and Russia and Ukraine frequently bombarded each other from a long distance during the New YearAt the end of December 2023, the Russian army made important progress on the front line. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on December 25 that Russia has taken full control of Maryinka. Zaluzhny then admitted on the 26th that the Ukrainian army had largely withdrawn from Maryinka, but had built a new defensive line outside the town.
Maryinka is located about 30 km southwest of the city of Donetsk. Since 2014, the Ukrainian army has been trying to build Maryinka into a powerful defensive fortress, and has deployed many artillery pieces here, and the town is also considered the most important defensive stronghold of the Ukrainian army in Donetsk. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Maryinka has been one of the strategic points that Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly contested. Some analysts believe that the Russian army's control of Maryinka means that the town will be transformed from Ukraine's "defensive fortress" to Russia's "western gate" to Ukraine, so that the Russian army will have a broader space for action.
While making progress on the front line, the Russian army has also stepped up long-range strikes against targets in Ukraine. On December 29, 2023 local time, the Russian army launched missiles at many targets in Ukraine, and explosions occurred in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odessa Oblast, Khmelnytsky Oblast and other places. In some areas, the power distribution network was damaged, power outages occurred, and some military airports, arsenals, and military equipment were also damaged to a certain extent. The Ukrainian side said that at least 24 people were killed and 130 injured in the attack.
The Ukrainian side has also stepped up its long-range attacks. On December 30, 2023, the Russian side said that the city of Belgorod had been attacked, killing 25 people, including five children, and injuring 109 others. According to Russian sources, this is one of the deadliest attacks on Russian territory since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In response, the Russian army retaliated on December 31 against a number of decision-making centers and military infrastructure in Ukraine.
According to Russian security sources, the attack on Belgorod was personally ordered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and carried out by the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kirill Budanov. On January 3, local time, Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of the Belgorod region, said that the current situation in the city is still tense and the air defense system has been activated.
Some analysts believe that the Ukrainian army has now switched to the defensive on the front line of the conflict. But in the Black Sea region, the Ukrainian army has caused a certain impact on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In 2023, under the frequent attacks of drones and unmanned boats in Ukraine, the Russian Black Sea Fleet began to evacuate from Sevastopol, and many ships were damaged. Just before the 2024 New Year, the Russian landing ship "Novocherkassk" was damaged during a Ukrainian attack on the Crimean port city of Feodosia.
In his 2024 New Year's speech, Zelensky said that the center of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict this year will be Crimea and the Black Sea, and the Ukrainian side plans to destroy the Crimean bridge, for which Ukraine needs "Taurus" missiles. According to the "Reference News", citing Bloomberg, although the Ukrainian army's attacks have increased the pressure on Russia's defense on the Crimean Peninsula and the pressure on the supply lines of the Russian army in southern Ukraine, their impact on the development of the battlefield may be limited, because the fighting on land is basically deadlocked.
The largest prisoner exchange since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine mediated by the UAE has been achievedAt a time when the frontline confrontation between the two sides is becoming increasingly fierce, Russia and Ukraine have achieved the largest prisoner exchange since the outbreak of the conflict under the mediation of the United Arab Emirates.
On January 3, 2024 local time, Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners of war, and the Russian Ministry of Defense issued an announcement saying that after complex negotiations, 248 Russian servicemen returned to Russia from Ukrainian-controlled areas. Surging image diagram
According to reports, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a notice on social media on the evening of January 3 saying that under the humanitarian mediation of the United Arab Emirates, 248 Russian prisoners returned to Russia from Ukrainian-controlled areas.
On the same day, the Ukrainian side said that a total of 230 people were released from the Ukrainian side, including 130 members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 55 members of the National Guard, 38 border guards, 1 national police officer and 6 civilians. Zelensky pointed out that many of the captured personnel released by the Ukrainian side this time had fought on Snake Island and Mariupol.
It is reported that this prisoner exchange operation is the 49th prisoner exchange since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and it is also the largest prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine. The last time the two sides publicly exchanged captured personnel was in early August 2023.
The Russian Defense Ministry said the prisoner exchange was "the result of negotiations facilitated by humanitarian mediation in the UAE." The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the UAE maintains "solid and friendly relations" with both Russia and Ukraine, and said that it is willing to make more humanitarian efforts to help the conflict between Russia and Ukraine be resolved peacefully.
Previously, the UAE had mediated a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine in February 2023. Since the outbreak of the conflict, Arab countries have maintained a cautious and neutral attitude, while frequently playing the role of "mediators". In addition to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia has facilitated a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine, and in August 2023 hosted an international conference on Ukraine in Jeddah, that country, without Russian participation.
In December 2023, Putin made his first visit to the Middle East since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the first destination of his "rare" overseas trip was the United Arab Emirates. During the talks, the leaders of the two countries discussed energy cooperation, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Putin also said that Russia's relations with the UAE have reached an "unprecedented high level", and that the UAE is Russia's main trading partner in the Arab world.
Giorgio Cafiero, chief executive and founder of Gulf State Analytics, an American consulting firm, said that the UAE has sought to implement a flexible foreign policy in recent years, and is committed to diversifying its diplomatic relations, not just its partnership with the West. For Russia, the UAE is a "key enabler" of relations in the Middle East, and its support is important for Russia's role in Libya and Syria, as well as in Yemen and sub-Saharan Africa.
Entering 2024, where does the Russia-Ukraine conflict go from here?A few days ago, after Russia and Ukraine achieved a large-scale prisoner exchange, Zelensky's statement that "negotiations have not stopped" shows that the two countries are still maintaining a certain degree of dialogue, but the prospects for Russia-Ukraine peace talks are still uncertain when there are no major changes in the situation on the front line and the two sides have not shown their willingness to compromise on major issues.
At the beginning of 2024, the leaders of Russia and Ukraine have made the latest statements on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In his New Year's address, Putin did not directly mention the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but said Russia "will never back down." And when meeting with the wounded of Russia's special military operation on January 1, Putin said that Russia hopes to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible, but it must be based on Russia's conditions, and Russia will not give up its position.
At the same time, Putin stressed that Ukraine itself is not Russia's enemy, and that those in the West who "want to destroy Russia's state system and want Russia to suffer strategic defeat on the battlefield" are Russia's enemies. He also noted that Western rhetoric has recently refocused on how to "end the conflict quickly" and began to discuss negotiations.
In his New Year's address, Zelensky said resolutely that the Ukrainian side did not see any sign of peace. In the new year, Russia "will feel the anger from Ukraine" and feel the "greetings of artillery, drones and the navy" from the Ukrainian side.
In an interview a few days ago, Zelensky once again stressed that the success of the Ukrainian army depends on Western military assistance. He said the West had "lost its sense of urgency" and that many Ukrainians had lost their "sense of existential threat," and that he was trying to rekindle the emotions that had been there.
On January 2, 2024 local time, in Kyiv, Ukraine, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, and many places in Ukraine were hit by airstrikes, killing 5 people and injuring hundreds of people. Surging image diagram
Some analysts believe that Russia is currently intensifying its offensive, while Ukraine's resources are gradually running out. In the face of the 2024 "super election year" that has begun, the attention of the United States and many European countries is shifting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to domestic politics. In their New Year's speeches, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz referred to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. However, US President Joe Biden did not mention Ukraine, instead emphasizing that the United States will still "lead the world."
At present, Western countries are experiencing "fatigue" under the continuous assistance to Ukraine. In the United States, due to the intractable differences between the two parties, the new aid fund for Ukraine has not been approved by Congress for a long time. In Europe, due to opposition from Hungary, the EU's 50 billion euro aid plan for Ukraine has been temporarily shelved.
However, despite the "shrinkage" of economic and military support from Western countries for Ukraine, the aid has not stopped.
On December 27, 2023, the U.S. government announced an additional $250 million worth of military aid to Ukraine and urged Congress to approve new aid funding for Ukraine. The German Federal Ministry of Economics and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also issued a joint announcement on December 21, 2023, announcing that the German government will provide 88.5 million euros to help maintain Ukraine's energy infrastructure during the winter.
Against the backdrop of increasingly fierce confrontations between Russia and Ukraine during the New Year, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said on January 3 that the "NATO-Ukraine Council" will hold an emergency meeting in response to Russia's large-scale air strikes on Ukraine in recent days. According to Kuleba, "strengthening the air defense of Ukraine" will be one of the main topics of the meeting.
On the same day, Norway announced that it would provide two F-16 fighter jets and send 10 instructors to train Ukrainian military personnel in Denmark. NATO also announced in a statement on the same day that it would support member states including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain in purchasing 1,000 Patriot missiles. It is reported that the $5.5 billion arms sales contract will support the establishment of a Patriot missile production facility in Germany. Some analysts believe that NATO's move is not only aimed at strengthening the defense capabilities of member states, but also to replenish the missile stocks of member states so that they can provide more assistance to Ukraine.
Regarding the delay in approving a new batch of aid funds to Ukraine by the United States and the European Union, Kuleba responded a few days ago that if the West reduces aid, Ukraine will also "have no Plan B", and said that he is confident in the "Plan A" that the West will continue to aid Ukraine. At the same time, he stressed that if Ukraine does not receive assistance, the West will "pay a higher price" in the future.