"Small non-farm" suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts, U.S. bonds dived intraday, the Nasdaq was in the red for five consecutive days, and Apple was downgraded twice in three days, falling by more than 5%
。 After the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting released on Wednesday hinted that the Fed may keep restrictive high interest rates for some time, market expectations for a sharp rate cut by the Fed in 2024 have been weighed down again: the ADP private sector employment report, known as the "small non-farm", showed that ADP employment increased by 164,000 in December, a significant increase of 39,000 more than expected, and the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States fell more than expected last week.
The commentary said that the strong ADP job growth raises doubts that the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year as early as the market currently expects and whether the rate cuts will be as big as the market expects. After the release of the data, the price of US Treasury bonds fell further, and the intraday rise in yields expanded. U.S. Treasury yields rose about 10 basis points from their daily lows at one point. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose above 4.0% for the second day in a row.
After the release of the ADP report and the services PMI, most of the major U.S. stock indexes fell, technology stocks continued to drag down the Nasdaq and the S&P, and Apple was downgraded by institutions for the second time this week due to concerns about iPhone demand, becoming the most unpopular technology giant on Wall Street, with its stock price falling more than 5% this week and its market value evaporating by more than $150 billion.
After the release of these data on Thursday, market expectations for the probability of a Fed rate cut in March and the magnitude of the rate cut for the full year fell further.
The market's expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in March 2024 has dropped to just over 60%
Market expectations for the Fed's cumulative decline for the full year of 2024 have fallen back to less than 140 basis points
Eurozone inflation data also weighed on expectations for the ECB to cut interest rates this year: Germany's CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year in December, the fastest pace in three months from 2.3% in November, and France's CPI growth in December also accelerated to 4.1% year-on-year from 3.9% in November. Rising inflation supports the ECB to keep interest rates high for longer. The price of European bonds accelerated intraday, and yields rose by at least 10 basis points intraday. Friday's blockbuster US non-farm payrolls report and Eurozone inflation data will continue to allow markets to gauge whether there is room for the European and US central banks to start cutting interest rates.
The euro accelerated its intraday rally after the release of German and French CPI data. On the same day, the UK's consumer credit in November surged more than expected by 2.05 billion pounds, a new high in nearly seven years, reflecting that the central bank's consumer loan demand is still strong in the environment of high interest rates, while the final value of the UK's services PMI in December was stronger than expected, rising to 53.4, a new high in half a year, the pound rose intraday, and the euro erased Wednesday's losses.
Under the pressure of both the euro and the pound higher, the dollar index retreated, falling from a near three-week high set on Wednesday, and the decline narrowed after the release of the US ADP jobs report. However, the yen failed to reverse its decline, with the yen falling more than 1% against the dollar for two consecutive days, and the offshore yuan falling to 7.17 for two consecutive days, hitting a three-week low. Cryptocurrencies rebounded overall, with Bitcoin, which plunged more than 10% intraday on Wednesday, rising more than $2,000 and regaining $44,000, but it has not erased Wednesday's losses and is still far from the 21-month high set on Tuesday.
Among commodities, international crude oil failed to hold on to Wednesday's rebound, with official U.S. data showing a surprise surge in oil product inventories last week, adding to demand concerns and overpowering the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the closure of Libya's largest oil field. Crude oil rose more than 1% intraday before turning lower. The U.S. Department of Energy released that the U.S. EIA gasoline and refined oil inventories did not accelerate the decline last week, but surged by more than 10 million barrels, and oil prices fell more than 2% intraday after the release of the data, failing to continue to get out of the low level set on Tuesday in more than two weeks, because of the Wednesday rally, oil prices are still expected to accumulate this week. Gasoline and refined oil are often seen as invisible indicators of consumer demand, according to some commentators.
The S&P fell for the fourth consecutive day, Apple fell more than 5% on Wednesday, the chip stock index underperformed the market for three days, and the Chinese concept stock index retreated
The three major U.S. stock indexes had mixed performances in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened slightly lower, quickly turned higher at the beginning of the session and then maintained its rally, rising nearly 290 points at the end of the morning session, and continued to fall back at midday, giving up most of its gains by the end of the session. The S&P 500, which fell nearly 0.2% at the beginning of the session, turned higher less than half an hour after opening, rose nearly 0.5% in early trading and turned lower at midday. The lower-opening Nasdaq Composite Index turned higher at the end of the morning session and turned lower again at midday. The Nasdaq fell about 0.6% and the S&P fell nearly 0.4% when it refreshed its daily low in late trading.
In the end, only the Dow closed higher, 10.15 points, or 0.03%, at 37,440.34, after rebounding on Wednesday, more than 200 points short of the all-time high set on Tuesday. The Nasdaq, which had fallen more than 1% for two consecutive days, closed down 0.56% at 14,510.30 points, closing down for five consecutive trading days, and after closing on Wednesday at a new low since December 12, it refreshed its low since December 11. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,688.68 points, falling for four consecutive sessions and updating its lowest level since December 12.
The S&P 500 fell nearly 2% on Wednesday, its worst three-day New Year's performance since 2008
The Russell 2000, a small-cap stock index dominated by value stocks, turned down at the end of the session, closing down 0.08%, falling for five consecutive days and continuing to refresh the closing low since December 13. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.53%, rebounding after falling for five consecutive days to its lowest level since Dec. 11. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology constituents in the Nasdaq 100 index, closed down 0.62%, falling for four consecutive days and hitting its lowest level since December 11 for two days.
Major U.S. stock indexes closed down on Thursday and refreshed their daily lows in late trading
Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only three closed higher on Thursday, with Merck's healthcare up nearly 0.5%, financials up more than 0.2%, and industrials up 0.1%, while energy fell more than 1.6% in eight sectors that closed down, consumer discretionary in Amazon's fell nearly 1% and the rest fell less than 0.7%.
Among the Dow constituents, Merck closed up nearly 2% and performed the best, after cutting its quarterly dividend in half to $0.25 per share in order to strengthen its long-term balance sheet and cash levels, the drugstore chain giant Walgreens (WBA) fell nearly 12% in early trading to close down 5.1%, the largest decline among the constituents, Apple, Nike, and Chevron, the only energy stock, all fell more than 1%.
Leading tech stocks rebounded slightly. Tesla, which closed down 4% on Wednesday, rose more than 1% in early trading, and turned lower in late trading, closing down more than 0.2%, falling for five consecutive days and refreshing the low closing level since December 12 for two days. Among the six major technology stocks in FAANMG, after being downgraded by the second institution after Barclays this week, and Piper Sandler downgraded its rating from overweight to neutral because it was not optimistic about iPhone demand in China, Apple fell more than 1.8% in early trading and closed down nearly 1.3%, falling for four consecutive days to the lowest level since November 7, and has fallen 5.5% in three trading days this week, while Amazon closed down 2.6% Alphabet, the parent company of Google, which stopped four consecutive declines, closed down 1.8% on Wednesday, falling back to its lowest level since December 18, and Microsoft, which plans to add artificial intelligence keys to PC keyboards, turned lower at midday and closed down more than 0.7%, falling back to its lowest level since December 14 after a slight rise on Wednesday, while Netflix closed up more than 0.9% , rebounded after falling for three consecutive days on Tuesday to its lowest level since Dec. 12, while Meta, the parent company of Facebook, closed up nearly 0.8% after falling for three consecutive days to its lowest level since Dec. 15.
Chip stocks generally fell for three consecutive days and underperformed the market for three days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX fell nearly 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, at the beginning of the session, both closing down 0.8%, refreshing their closing lows since Dec. 8. Among individual stocks, by the close, onsemi and NXP fell nearly 4%, Wolfspeed fell more than 2%, Qualcomm, which launched an upgraded version of the chip for mixed reality headsets, fell 1%, while Nvidia rose more than 1% in early trading and closed up 0.9%;
Seven major technology stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia and Tesla, fell further on Thursday, erasing gains since early December.
Seven major technology stocks, including Apple, generally erased gains since early December
AI概念股总体反弹、跑赢大盘。 到收盘，BigBear.ai（BBAI）涨近5.9%，SoundHound.ai（SOUN）涨4%，C3.ai（AI）和Palantir（PLTR）约涨1%， ，而Adobe（ADBE）跌0.8%。
Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks retreated. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell more than 0.7% at the beginning of the session, turned higher in early trading and then fell again in midday trading, closing down 0.4% before rebounding on Wednesday. Chinese ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed down about 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. The three new car-making forces rose and fell differently, Xpeng Motors and NIO closed down about 2.7%, and Li Auto, which had risen more than 1% in early trading, turned down in early trading, closing down about 1.8%. Among other stocks, after announcing that a delegation of Chinese auto suppliers visited the company's headquarters to discuss strategic cooperation opportunities in the supply chain, Faraday Future rose by 11% at the beginning of the session, turned down at midday, closed down 2%, and at the close, Dada fell more than 4%, Station B fell more than 3%, Alibaba, Tencent Pink Sheet, Douyu fell more than 2%, JD.com fell more than 1%, Pinduoduo fell 0.8%, NetEase fell nearly 0.4%, while New Oriental rose more than 5%, Gaotu Education rose more than 3%, Good Future rose more than 1%, Baidu rose more than 0.5%, and turned up slightly.
The bank stock index rebounded, outperforming the broader market. The overall banking sector benchmark KBW Bank Index (BKX), which fell back to its lowest level since Dec. 20, closed up 0.6% on Wednesday, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed up 0.4%, and the regional bank ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) closed up 0.5%, all out of the lowest level since Wednesday's pullback.
Among the volatile stocks, self-driving technology company Mobileye Global Inc (MBLY) fell 29% at the beginning of the session to close down 24.6% after warning that its revenue in the first quarter would plummet by 50% year-on-year due to excessive customer inventory, and oil company APA (APA) closed down nearly 7.4% after reaching a $4.5 billion all-stock deal to acquire shale oil producer Callon Petroleum. And despite the year-on-year decline in net sales and net profit in the fiscal second quarter, Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), the largest egg producer in the United States, still rose, rising 4.7% at midday and closing up 2.6%.
In European stocks, investors assessed the impact of CPI and other data, and the pan-European stock index rebounded after falling for two consecutive days. After Wednesday's biggest drop since Nov. 10, the Euro Stoxx 600 index moved off its closing low since Dec. 13, which was refreshed on Wednesday. Stock indexes of major European countries all rose, with French and British stocks falling for two consecutive days, as well as German, Italian and Western stocks that stopped their two-day winning streak on Thursday.
Among the 600 sectors, banks closed up 1.8% to lead the gains, helping Italian and Spanish stock indexes to rise more than 1%, utilities to rise 1.6%, healthcare to rise nearly 1.4%, up for five consecutive days, thanks to Novo Nordisk closed up 3.6%, a record closing high, while retail closed down nearly 0.8%, British sportswear retailer JD Sports Fashion, which was affected by the downward revision of its full-year profit forecast, plunged 23%, its German peers Adidas and Puma fell 3% and 5.9%, respectively, and technology fell 0.4% , down for five days in a row.
Among individual stocks, after confirming that the Dutch government revoked the export license of some products sold to China, lithography machine giant ASML's European stocks continued to fall, and by Thursday, which closed down more than 0.3%, it had fallen for five consecutive days, while shipping giant Maersk rose 4%, and German peer Hapag-Lloyd, which rose 14.8%, both rose four in a row.
European bond yields rose more than 10 basis points intraday, U.S. bond yields rose 10 basis points at one point, and the 10-year yield rose above 4.0% intraday
European government bond prices fell in unison, yields rose more than 10 basis points intraday, and German bond yields erased Wednesday's decline. By the end of the bond market, the UK 10-year benchmark government bond yield closed at 3.72%, up about 9 basis points during the day, and had risen above 3.74% intraday, refreshing the high since December 18, the 2-year British bond yield closed at 4.16%, up about 10 basis points during the day, and rose above 4.20% intraday, refreshing the high since December 20, the benchmark 10-year German government bond yield closed at 2.12%, up about 10 basis points during the day, and the US services PMI rose above 2.14% after the release The yield on 2-year German bonds closed at 2.51%, up about 11 basis points during the day, and was close to 2.54% intraday, the highest since mid-December.
The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell below 3.90% to refresh the daily low before the European stock market, and then continued to rise, and the U.S. stock market rose above 4.0% after the open, approaching the intraday high since December 14 after breaking through this mark on Wednesday, rising nearly 11 basis points from the daily low, and about 4.00% at the end of the bond market, up about 8 basis points in the day, rebounding after Wednesday's intraday decline, and climbing for the fourth day in the last five trading days.
After Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield stood above 4.0% again on Thursday
The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, fell below 4.30% before the European stock market to refresh the daily low, and the U.S. stock market rose to 4.40% intraday, refreshing the high since December 20, rising nearly 10 basis points from the daily low, and about 4.38% at the end of the bond market, up 6 basis points in the day), rising for three consecutive days.
U.S. Treasury yields rose across maturities on Thursday
The U.S. dollar index stopped rising for four consecutive days, falling from a nearly three-week high, and the yen fell more than 1% in the short term
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six major currencies such as the U.S. dollar against the euro, has turned up in the Asian market in the short term, and the European market has fallen below 102.20 to refresh the daily low, down more than 0.3% in the day, falling from the high since December 14, which rose above 102.70 on Wednesday, and then continued to rebound, and the U.S. ADP employment report accelerated after the release, U.S. stocks turned up at the beginning of the morning, and then quickly turned down, U.S. stocks returned to below 102.30 in early trading, and the decline narrowed at midday.
By the close of the U.S. stock market on Thursday, the U.S. dollar index hovered at 102.40, down less than 0.1% during the day, halting a four-day winning streak, while the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against 10 other currencies, edged up less than 0.1%, refreshing its high since the same period on December 20.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for five consecutive days, its best start to the year since 2005
Among the non-US currencies, the euro rose above 1.0970 against the dollar in European stocks, and the pound against the dollar was tested at 1.2730 in the European stock market, all erasing all the losses on January 3 and rebounding to the intraday level since January 2, rising nearly 0.5% and more than 0.5% respectively during the day, and the euro fell below 1.0900 on Wednesday to refresh the low since December 17; the yen fell for three consecutive days, falling more than 1% intraday for two consecutive days, and the dollar against the yen rose above 144.80 in early U.S. stocks, up nearly 1.1% in the day , refreshed on December 19
The offshore yuan (CNH) rose to a daily high of 7.1526 against the dollar in pre-market trading in European stocks, and then continued to fall, and U.S. stocks turned lower in pre-market, with U.S. stocks falling to 7.1783 in early trading, refreshing the low since December 13 after falling below 7.17 on Wednesday, down 257 points from the daily high. At 5:59 on January 5, Beijing time, the offshore yuan was quoted at 7.1752 yuan against the US dollar, down 89 points from the end of New York on Wednesday and falling for four consecutive trading days.
Bitcoin (BTC), which once fell more than $5,000 and fell more than 10% on Wednesday, rebounded on Thursday, and after the U.S. stock regained $44,000 in early trading, it rose above $44,300 to refresh the daily high, up more than $2,000 and more than 5% from the intraday low in early Asian trading, and the U.S. stock market hovered at $44,400 at the close, up more than 3% in the last 24 hours, and there is still a distance from the 21-month high set by $46,000 on Tuesday.
Bitcoin plunged more than 10% intraday on Wednesday and erased about half of its intraday losses on Thursday
Crude oil failed to rebound in two days, and it fell more than 2% intraday
International crude oil futures turned down intraday, European stocks refreshed the daily high before the market, the United States WTI crude oil rose to $74, up nearly 1.8% during the day, Brent crude oil rose above $79.4, up nearly 1.5% during the day, and the U.S. stock market turned down in early trading after refreshing the daily low, fell below $71.10, fell nearly 2.3% during the day, fell to $76.5, fell more than 2.2% during the day, and then gradually erased most of the declines.
WTI February crude oil futures, which closed up about 3.3% on Wednesday, closed down 0.70% at $72.19 a barrel, and Brent crude oil futures for March delivery, which closed up about 3.1% on Wednesday, closed down 0.84% at $77.59 a barrel.
U.S. WTI crude oil rose more than 1% intraday before turning down, falling more than 2% intraday, and then erasing most of the losses
U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures were mixed. NYMEX February gasoline futures, which rebounded 3% on Wednesday, closed down 2.2% at $2.1101 a gallon, starting to approach their lowest level since December 13 last Thursday, while NYMEX February natural gas futures closed up more than 5.73% at $2.8210/MMBtu, the highest since Nov. 27 and up for three consecutive days.
London copper and London nickel fell for five consecutive years, London nickel hit a new low in the past three years, and gold bid farewell to the low level in more than two weeks
Base metals futures in London fell on Thursday. London nickel, which led the decline, fell more than 2% to close below $16,100, refreshing the lowest level since April 2021 set last month, and London copper fell for five consecutive trading days. London copper continued to refresh its two-week low in three trading days this week. London lead fell for four consecutive days, hitting a three-week low in two consecutive days. London zinc fell about 2%, and London aluminum, which also fell three times in a row, hit a two-week low. Lunxi, which rebounded on Wednesday, fell back to a more than two-week low.
Supported by the retreat of the dollar, New York gold futures, which fell sharply on Thursday, maintained its gains throughout the day, and European stocks refreshed their daily high of $2058.1 intraday, up more than 0.7% during the day. Finally, COMEX gold futures for February delivery closed up 0.35% at $2,050 an ounce, bidding farewell to Wednesday's new lows since December 18.
Despite Wednesday's rebound, gold futures will still fall this week, the first weekly decline in the last month, as Wednesday closed down 1.48% for the biggest drop since December 8.
Spot gold rose above $2,051 when European stocks refreshed their intraday highs, up nearly 0.5% on the day, off the lowest since December 20, when it fell more than 1% on Wednesday and fell below $2,031.
Spot gold returned above $2,040
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