#文章首发挑战赛#
In the "Historical Records", it is said that "the bustle of the world is all for profit, and the bustling of the world is all for profit."
This sentence really sums up the essence of the interaction between people and countries in the world.
Why not just recently, the Philippines, which used to be as good as the United States, saw that China was starting to be unkind, and immediately stopped emphasizing its own position, rights, and so on, but instead reversed its attitude and wanted to "send assurances" to China.
What is the situation, and what kind of calculation has the Philippines made this time?
The arrogant Philippines
In fact, the most common situation we hear about the conflict between the Philippines and the mainland is over the South China Sea.
As a result, some people seem to think that there is nothing wrong with China-Philippines relations, but this perception is the most important.
The South China Sea dispute is a territorial issue, and if a country has come to grab your place, can you expect him to be friendly and close to you elsewhere?
Therefore, the Philippines did not have too fierce conflicts with the mainland in other places, just because it was "unnecessary".
For example, the Philippines has never had any "opinion" on the trade between the two countries, the Philippines can make money by selling things, and Chinese tourists can travel to the Philippines to generate local income.
But the South China Sea issue is different.
In the South China Sea dispute, the Philippines took advantage of the US aggression against China and had an excuse to sophistry about the ownership of the region, so they began to seize this opportunity to try to suck China's blood.
If you want to ask why the Philippines has been so obsessed with the South China Sea issue for more than 20 years, the answer is very simple: it is difficult to reach a complete conclusion on the South China Sea issue, and international arbitration is just an "official statement", but the specific behavior of the two countries and whether they admit it or not depends on the behavior of both sides.
Therefore, if the Philippines can really achieve their goal of illegally occupying Second Thomas Jiao through misconduct, it means that their territory has expanded and their natural resources are richer.
Moreover, Ren'ai Jiao is an island, and if the Philippines occupies it, then the territorial waters, territory, and airspace of Ren'ai Jiao will all belong to them, and it will make no difference from cutting off a piece of meat from China and giving it to others.
However, if you want to get this piece of "meat", the Philippines only needs to pay a broken ship, a few crews, and a shameless spirit to fight.
Winning is a bumper harvest, losing is some painless price for the Philippine government, and as for the lives of those innocent sailors, it is not what the Philippine government really cares about, they are just pawns.
Of course, what the Philippine government thought was "painless" will soon disappear with China's serious attitude.
China promotes friendship and peace, but if any country wants to use good virtue as an excuse to take advantage of it, then don't blame China for correcting this bad trend.
From China's recent use of high-pressure water cannons in the South China Sea to China's recent hardline stance toward the United States, the Philippines seems to realize that it will not end well if it continues to "die".
As a result, the incumbent President of the Philippines, Marcos, hurriedly changed his face and began to show goodwill to China.
So, what is it that makes this president, who has always been unrealistic, start to sober up?
The gap between China and the Philippines
Obviously, sometimes "fists" are indeed better than "truths".
This sentence is not to say that China wants to provoke a war, but that the military gap between China and the Philippines is enough to shut up Marcos.
First of all, the size of the Philippines' troops, weapons and equipment are far inferior to China's, they did not know what agreement they had reached with the United States before, but judging from the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Philippines should understand that the military assistance that the United States can provide does not have any overwhelming advantage over a truly powerful power.
What's more, the Russia-Ukraine war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are both historical issues that have been backlogged for a long time, and the people of the two countries have been holding a breath of anger from the bottom of their hearts, which is not quite the same as the South China Sea dispute.
To put it bluntly, the South China Sea dispute is a matter that the Philippines wants to take advantage of, and even if the Philippines really wants to settle this matter by force, it is really hard to say whether the United States will really help the Philippines offend China for this trivial matter.
The United States has always advocated suppression and obstruction against China, precisely because they also know that they cannot really do anything to China, and they dare not really do anything.
If this is true for the United States, what about the Philippines?
Moreover, the current Sino-US relations are a positive trend.
No matter what the Biden administration thinks privately, at least for now, the US side is releasing positive signals in various ways, and even the long-ossified Sino-US military dialogue has recently resumed communication.
Just think, military exchanges have resumed, how can the United States still want to help the Philippines deal with China?
It is true that the United States is still not friendly enough to China, but at least it is true that the United States does not want to turn the other cheek with China.
Next, we will look at the situation in the most important region of the South China Sea.
If the Philippines can really bargain for anything in the South China Sea, the problem is that in fact, the Chinese military has an overwhelming advantage in the South China Sea, and whether it is the US military or the Philippine army, the Chinese Navy will drive them away, and they will just go obediently.
If the above three points do not make the Philippines give up, we can also look at this matter from the perspective of the international situation.
To put it simply, Marcos went almost all the way around the ASEAN countries a while ago, and did any country support him in fighting for the South China Sea with China? At least not on the surface, and we don't know whether they have communicated with each other in private.
But at least in terms of action, no country is willing to join the Philippines in provoking China, and even many ASEAN countries are good partners in China's Belt and Road Initiative, and have very close economic and trade relations. All this is a sign of the completion of China's strategic deployment in response to the Philippine provocation, and I wonder if the Philippines will be able to see this form clearly.
What's more, the "big brother" of the Philippines, the United States, has recently been busy with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the general election, and international public opinion is all about criticizing the United States.
Therefore, the timely bowing of the Philippines can be regarded as a knowledge of current affairs.
The choice of the Philippines
The current situation in the South China Sea has reached the moment when the Philippines "has to make a decision", and the dilapidated and dilapidated "Sierra Madre" will not last long at all.
Recently, the spokesperson of the mainland foreign ministry has also used sharp words on the issue of China-Philippines relations, bluntly saying that the relations between the two countries have now reached a "crossroads".
Although Marcos has not yet taken a position, we can get a glimpse of the attitudes of other Filipino social figures.
For example, Shi Dongfang, chairman of the Philippine Chinese Business Association, has been speaking out recently, strongly urging the Marcos administration to repair China-Philippines relations "in a timely manner", because the Philippines' continued economic success cannot be separated from China.
What is called "timely" is that the sooner the better.
Moreover, Shi Dongfang, as the chairman of the Chamber of Commerce, also emphasized that China is the most important trading partner of the Philippines.
China's importance to the Philippines is self-evident, and if Marcos insists on going his own way with his unreasonable ideas at this time, it will simply be fighting with China with the development of the whole country.
The most important thing is that they are still fighting for one thing.
Is Marcos' face important, or is the development of the Philippines important?
I believe that this question can be easily answered, and I hope that Marcos will come to his senses as soon as possible so that China-Philippines relations can truly move on the path of normal, peace and friendship.
As for the United States, it can only be said that the United States is now in decline, both politically and economically, and many of the ideas and measures launched are useless.
How to develop the country into what it is now, I'm afraid that the Biden administration will also have to reflect on it.
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