Produced by Tiger Sniff ESG Group
Author: Yuan hike
Abe inspecting the Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2019. From Visual China.
This article is the 065th article in the #ESG Progress Watch# series
Key words for this observation: nuclear energy, carbon neutrality
After a 7.6-magnitude earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula in Japan on January 1, people mourned the death and injury, but the biggest concern was "Is there anything wrong with the nuclear power plant?" As of January 4, there are still aftershocks in Japan, but the tsunami warning has been lifted. At the Shiga Nuclear Power Plant and Kashiwazaki Kariba Nuclear Power Plant, which are closest to the epicenter, some of the water in the spent fuel pool has overflowed, and the specific damage is still being assessed.
Coincidentally, five days before the earthquake, on December 27, 2023, Japan's nuclear energy regulator announced the lifting of the ban on the operation of the Kashiwazaki Kariba nuclear power plant. The world's largest nuclear power plant shut down shortly after the 2011 earthquake in Japan.
But Japan's attitude toward nuclear power is different today. While earthquakes and tsunamis continue to threaten the safety of nuclear power, the pressure to achieve carbon neutrality makes it difficult for Japan to move away from nuclear power. Will the Great Earthquake Shake Japan on Nuclear Power?
Houses that were knocked down in the Noto earthquake in Wajima City on January 4
The nuclear power plant survived this time
According to the information reported so far, a transformer fire occurred at the Shiga nuclear power plant closest to the epicenter. In addition, at the Shiga Nuclear Power Plant and the Kashiwazaki Kariba Nuclear Power Plant, water in the spent fuel ponds partially overflowed. Spent fuel is used nuclear fuel that needs to be soaked in a pool of water to cool down and prevent radioactive material from escaping into the air. The water in the pool contains a certain amount of radioactive material.
However, the overflow was not much, and it did not flow outside the building.
Figure: The spent fuel pool looks like this. The photo was taken at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Image source: Wikicommons
When the earthquake struck, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued its first large tsunami warning since the 2011 earthquake, which means that a tsunami of more than 5 meters could strike. As a result, the affected area was hit by a tsunami of up to 1.2 meters. On the morning of January 2, the Japan Meteorological Agency lifted the tsunami warning.
With the Japanese government lifting the ban on the world's largest nuclear power plant, the Kashiwazaki Kariba Nuclear Power Plant, just five days ago, it's hard not to add to the added concern. In 2011, the earthquake struck after a 13-meter-high tsunami that caused a power outage at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, a core meltdown, and a nuclear accident.
This time, attention from all walks of life has once again focused on Japan's nuclear power plants. However, the Japanese government's firm stance on restarting Japan's nuclear power is completely different from that of 10 years ago. The fact that the Noto Peninsula earthquake did not cause substantial damage to the nuclear power plant does not change the official stance on reviving nuclear power.
The swing of Japan's nuclear energy policy
There is no room for vacillation in Japan's nuclear power policy.
On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck Japan, causing the Fukushima nuclear accident. This disaster, which has been described as "Japan's worst disaster since World War II", has left a lasting scar on Japanese society.
Due to the huge opposition from the people, Japan had to abandon its basic national policy of "developing nuclear energy," which had been adhered to for half a century. At the same time, the world's confidence in nuclear power has been greatly reduced because of this. Two months after the Fukushima nuclear accident, then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan began shutting down the existing nuclear power plant. In September of that year, succeeding Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda reaffirmed the policy of "denuclearization."
Japan's nuclear energy program went from stepping on the gas pedal to hitting the brakes in an instant. The country's original plan to make nuclear energy account for 53% of total energy supply by 2030 is to completely eliminate nuclear power by 2030. In May 2012, all nuclear power plants in Japan ceased operations with the shutdown of Unit 3 of the Nari Nuclear Power Plant in Hokkaido.
Figure: Statistics on the operating period of nuclear power plants in Japan (as of August 2023). The red line is the time of the Fukushima nuclear accident. The table also provides an approximate view of the construction time (yellow) and service length of each nuclear power plant in Japan Image source: Wikicommons
However, the shutdown of nuclear energy has created a shortage of electricity supply. Although Japan began to increase oil and gas energy supplies after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the gap will not be closed anytime soon. And increased dependence on imported energy, especially Russian oil and gas, is not what Japan wants to see.
So in 2012, during Yoshihiko Noda's tenure, he restarted the Oime Nuclear Power Plant, which is less than 100 kilometers north of Kyoto, and restarted two of the four units (Ōi-3 and Ōi-4 in the photo above).
The restart of the Dahan nuclear power plant has been a multi-faceted game. Japanese officials and companies have done a lot of expert evaluation and improvement work, and they have been able to persuade Kyoto Prefecture and several prefectures in the region to restart the Oime nuclear power plant in July 2012.
But ordinary Japanese people didn't buy it. At the same time as the crew was started, tens of thousands of Japanese people stormed the prime minister's official residence in protest. Anti-nuclear power groups have collected signatures from nearly 10 million supporters and have received support from celebrities such as Kenzaburo Oe and Ryuichi Sakamoto.
In 2013, Kenzaburo Oe spoke at an anti-nuclear power rally Image source: Wikicommons
In September 2013, units 3 and 4 of the Dafan nuclear power plant were shut down again for safety inspections. Japan has once again entered a period of "no nuclear power".
By the end of 2012, the nuclear-armed LDP had won an election against the anti-nuclear Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), and Shinzo Abe became prime minister. After Abe came to power, he began to systematically restart Japan's nuclear power.
In 2015, a new opportunity emerged, and carbon neutrality is coming. The international community has called for an international climate cooperation framework, known as the Paris Agreement at the end of 2015. In preparation, the LDP-led government developed a new national energy plan, which set a 20%-22% share of nuclear power by 2030. It is explained that photovoltaic and wind power cannot completely replace nuclear energy, one of the reasons is that Japan does not have so much land to build photovoltaic power plants, and there are not too good coastal conditions to build offshore wind power.
The most recent push for Japan's nuclear power restart was the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. The conflict has triggered turbulence in international fossil fuel prices. In the middle of the year, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that "Japan will use nuclear energy to help reduce its own and other countries' dependence on Russian energy". Japan has taken the revitalization of nuclear power one step further, and in addition to "maximizing the use" of existing nuclear power plants, it has even proposed plans to build smaller, safer next-generation nuclear power plants.
These plans became Japan's GX (Green Transition) Decarbonized Power Supply Act in May 2023.
The dream of a nuclear power revival
At the just-concluded COP 28 meeting, Japan, along with 21 other countries, joined an initiative to increase nuclear power, pledging to triple nuclear power generation capacity by 2050 compared to 2020 levels. This shows Japan's ambition in nuclear power.
Pictured: COP28 is the moment when nuclear energy is justified. Delegates pose for a group photo under the slogan "Triple nuclear energy by 2050". Photo credit: Dean Calma/IAEA
Many people compare Japan to Denmark. Both countries are developed coastal countries and both are heavily invested in non-fossil energy. The difference is that Denmark is betting on wind power, owning two international wind energy giants, Vestas and Orsted. Japan, on the other hand, is betting on nuclear power, and it seems that it has chosen a much more difficult path than Denmark.
In Japan, the pace of "nuclear power revival" is much faster on paper than in reality.
According to statistics from the China Nuclear Think Tank and the World Nuclear Association, before the Fukushima accident, there were 60 nuclear power units in operation in Japan. After the accident, Japan conducted a shutdown inspection of nuclear power units across the country, and determined that 27 units were permanently suspended, and 33 units were still in service and would be gradually restarted. As of January 1, 2024, 12 units have been successfully restarted in Japan.
The restart of nuclear power plants is difficult, and the vigilance of society and industry for nuclear energy has greatly increased the cost of nuclear power restart. For example, Japan planned to restart nine units in the winter of 2022, but from then until the end of 2023, only two units of the Takahama Nuclear Power Plant were successfully activated.
But a reboot is necessary.
According to Japan's green transition plan, nuclear power will account for 20%-22% of domestic energy by 2030. An article in the journal Nuclear Engineering International explains that Japan can achieve this goal by simply restarting existing nuclear power plants. This will require Japan to restart about 30 nuclear power units and, as the old ones are decommissioned, to build new ones.
However, in order to achieve this goal, the Japanese government has used a risky trick: the "GX Decarbonized Power Supply Act" extends the operation period of Japan's nuclear power plants from 40 years to 60 years, and after 60 years, they can be extended after obtaining approval from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. This plan to extend the life of nuclear power plants has been opposed by members of the community due to its potential risks and opacity. This is especially true considering that Japan's future nuclear power expansion will depend on the next generation of new nuclear reactors, which are expected to be commercialized in the mid-2030s, according to Nikkei, the next generation of nuclear reactors developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Hitachi. Nuclear fusion is also expected to be high, but not even a word.
In other words, between now and the mid-2030s, Japan's nuclear energy will be in a state of scarcity, and it will need to rely on some aging nuclear power plants to support Japan's carbon reduction business. After 2040, Japan's active nuclear power plants will begin to be decommissioned in large numbers, and it is uncertain whether new nuclear power plants will be built in time to fill the gap.
Restarting nuclear power plants requires a consensus in Japan. "Rebuilding people's trust in nuclear power" is at the core of TEPCO's ESG efforts, which owns the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant and Kashiwazaki Kariba Nuclear Power Plant.
At the beginning of 2021, the Kashiwazaki Kariba Nuclear Power Plant was found to have damaged the security guard's alarm system, and TEPCO did not properly repair it to save costs. In addition, someone used a borrowed access card to enter the core control room of the nuclear power plant. When the news came out, some local residents were frightened. Because this is no longer a risk of natural disasters, but a risk of terrorism and vandalism.
After several years of rectification, the Kashiwazaki Kariba Nuclear Power Plant was at least officially approved by Japan. TEPCO also kept explaining to residents that it had now made amends. For example, the company has expanded the emergency response team of the nuclear power plant from 325 to 850 people, upgraded the alarm system, and now the power station is protected against a 15-meter-high tsunami, and so on. TEPCO has created a very lively and interactive website to introduce the management and security measures of the nuclear power plant to the outside world, and has even signed artists as ambassadors.
One of the promotional images shows that the power station's wave wall is 15 meters high.
The TEPCO website features an interview with host Emily Nakata with engineers in charge of earthquake response, emergency power supply, and other projects.
In 2022, Niigata Prefecture, where the Kashiwazaki Kariba Nuclear Power Plant is located, held a gubernatorial election, and local voters chose between Hideyo Hanaku, who is "cautious about nuclear power," and Chikako Ikeda, who is anti-nuclear power. This is an affirmation of the restart of the Kashiwazaki Kariba Nuclear Power Plant under the premise of safety.
As international political scholars Liu Weiwei and Zhang Boyu put it in their article "Why is it difficult for Japan to abandon nuclear power?", "The long-term goal of energy self-sufficiency and the consensus of the state and industry to promote nuclear energy have overwhelmed the opposition of external forces." As a result, Japan's nuclear power policy has gone through many iterations, and it is difficult to give up. ”
Many people have likened Japan's nuclear power to a frozen Godzilla that will one day wake up and bring destruction to Japan. But now in the era of carbon neutrality, Japan's nuclear power is a bit like the ancient mythical beast in "The Legend of Zelda", as long as the evil spirits entrenched in it are cut off and the sacred beast is re-controlled in his own hands, he can save the Hyrule continent again.
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