Policy/Index Barometer
1. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Over the past decade, the Belt and Road Initiative has made historic achievements
According to CCTV News, the Belt and Road Initiative has made remarkable historic achievements in the past decade. In terms of economic, trade and investment cooperation, the total import and export volume between China and the Belt and Road countries reached 17.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. In addition, China's non-financial direct investment in these countries reached 201.1 billion yuan, up 26.8 percent year-on-year, and the turnover of contracted projects reached 784.8 billion yuan, up 8.5 percent year-on-year.
In terms of connectivity and cooperation, the achievements are also very remarkable. In the first 11 months of 2023, a total of 16,145 China-Europe freight trains have been operated, sending 1.749 million TEUs of goods, a year-on-year increase of 7% and 19%, respectively, exceeding the total volume of last year. Two months after the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway was put into operation, it has sent more than 1 million passengers. Other important projects, such as the Sun Yat-sen Tunnel in Bangladesh and the Lekki Deep-water Port in Nigeria, have also been completed and opened, greatly promoting the connectivity of relevant countries and regions.
2. JPMorgan Chase expects China's economic growth to be 4.9% in 2024, and the export side is still under pressure
Recently, JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicted that China's economic growth rate in 2024 will be 4.9%, consumption may contribute two-thirds of the growth rate, exports will still face greater pressure, and the contribution to the economy may remain negative. China's fiscal deficit rate is likely to remain at 3.8% in 2024. The central bank may cut interest rates by another 10 basis points.
Based on recent forecasts for China's economy, the pessimistic view expects China's GDP growth rate to be 4% or even lower, while the optimists believe that it is closer to 5%. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) and Goldman Sachs forecast 4.6% and 4.8% respectively, while the consensus estimate is 4.5%. Judging from the recent policy tone, it is possible to pursue a slightly more aggressive economic growth target, which is about 5%.
Popular Industry Observations
1. Global projector market growth analysis in 2023 and forecast for 2024
In the first three quarters of 2023, the global projector market shipped 13.5 million units, achieving a year-on-year growth of 4.5%. Full-year shipments are expected to reach 18.27 million units, which would mark a 2.4% year-over-year increase. In terms of market competition, in the global projector market in the first three quarters of 2023, Epson, XGIMI, Nut and ViewSonic are the top four brands, with a total market share (CR4) of 19.3%. According to agency forecasts, by 2024, the global projector market shipments are expected to reach 19.31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%.
2. China's shipbuilding industry will rank first in the world in terms of volume in 2023
According to the statistics of the Second Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to November 2023, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 38.09 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, the new order volume was 64.85 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 63.8%, and as of the end of November, the hand-held order volume was 134.09 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%.
From January to November 2023, mainland shipbuilding completions, new orders, and hand-held orders accounted for 50.1%, 65.9%, and 53.4% of the global total, respectively, in terms of deadweight tonnage. The market share of China's shipbuilding industry continues to expand, and high-tech ships have become a new bright spot in development. At present, the mainland has gathered the "three pearls of the shipbuilding industry", which can build aircraft carriers, large liquefied natural gas carriers, and large cruise ships at the same time.
At the same time, China also excels in the maritime industry, owning seven of the world's top 10 container ports and having a near monopoly on global container production. The development of China's shipbuilding industry benefits from the progress of manufacturing technology and labor resources, which is of great significance to the development of foreign trade.
3. In 2023, the overseas revenue of China's game industry will decline slightly, and the global game market will rebound slightly in 2024
A few days ago, the "2023 China Game Industry Report" released by data.ai showed that in 2023, the overseas sales revenue of mainland-developed games will be 16.366 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.65%. Although the scale has exceeded 100 billion yuan for four consecutive years, due to factors such as turbulent international situation, fierce market competition and changes in privacy policies, the difficulty of going overseas and the increase in operating costs have increased, resulting in a decline in overall revenue.
According to data.ai forecast, based on the economic promotion of markets such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea in the future, and the rise of emerging markets such as Brazil, Mexico, India, and Indonesia, global mobile game consumer spending will rebound by 4% year-on-year to US$111.4 billion in 2024, only slightly lower than the peak level of US$115.8 billion during the epidemic. The gaming industry is moving back to a more modest growth trajectory from pre-pandemic accelerated spending levels.
4. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the operation of the electronic information manufacturing industry from January to November 2023
From January to November 2023, the production of the mainland's electronic information manufacturing industry will accelerate its recovery, the decline in exports will continue to narrow, the recovery of benefits will be accelerated, investment will decline slightly, and the revenue of many regions will increase. Among them, from January to November, the added value of the electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 2.6 percent year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the January-October period, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points lower than that of the industry in the same period and 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the high-tech manufacturing industry. In November, the added value of the electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 10.6% year-on-year.
From January to November 2023, among the main products, the output of mobile phones was 1.41 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, of which the output of smartphones was 1.03 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, the output of microcomputer equipment was 311 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%, and the output of integrated circuits was 311.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%.
5. In 2023, China's automobile exports will surpass Japan to become the world's first, and the growth of new energy vehicles will continue to be optimistic
In 2023, China's automobile exports are expected to surpass Japan's, becoming the world's largest for the first time. On December 28, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association announced that exports for the January-November period were 3.99 million units. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile exports from January to November reached 4.412 million units. Compared with the same period of the previous year, it increased by about 6%, and it is a foregone conclusion that the annual export volume will surpass that of Japan.
Among them, on December 27, 2023, Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said at a media communication conference that the industrial competition pattern has entered a "period of deep reshaping". Looking forward to the coming year, Zhang Yongwei optimistically predicts that the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles in mainland China is expected to reach 13 million units in 2024, with a growth rate of about 40%, the overall penetration rate of more than 40%, and the monthly penetration rate of the passenger car field is expected to exceed 50%, ushering in an important milestone in industrial development. According to statistics, in 2023, BYD's new energy vehicle sales target will reach 3 million, surpassing Tesla by 1.82 million units, becoming the world's new energy vehicle sales champion.
Platform dynamics at a glance
1. Ali International Station released the annual report of digital foreign trade, predicting the eight blue ocean tracks of digital foreign trade in 2024
On December 27, Ali International Station released an annual report on digital foreign trade, predicting that in 2024, the eight blue ocean tracks of digital foreign trade will be on the list, with new energy vehicles, niche sports, smart hardware, "lazy" smart homes, green environmental protection products, green energy equipment, hardware tools, and flexible production of small machinery.
"New energy", "green environmental protection", "personalization" and "intelligence" have become the four key words.
In the field of "green environmental protection", with the further improvement of European environmental protection requirements, products with degradable and pure natural materials such as straw weaving, paper products, and organic cotton continue to sell well. On Ali International Station, it also gave birth to the "new three" of environmental protection: straw tote bags, environmentally friendly paper product packaging, and rice water dandruff shampoo.
In the field of "personalization", whether it is outdoor sports, hardware tools, or small machinery, products that meet the personalized and DIY needs of overseas consumers seem to be niche, but in fact have unlimited potential.
"Customization" has become a hot word in overseas trends, and the personalized needs of overseas Generation Z have brought prosperity to flexible production machinery. The retail sales of the global DIY market will exceed 2,857 billion US dollars in 2025, and the governments of the five ASEAN countries will continue to increase investment in infrastructure to meet the one-stop procurement needs of overseas buyers, and the sales volume will increase by more than 30%.
2. The two major categories of Amazon in the United States have opened pre-sales review
Amazon recently sent a compliance policy request email to sellers in the United States, which showed that the compliance requirements for the categories of "clothing storage products" and "pool and spa facility drainage covers" have been updated. For the "Clothing Storage Products" category, sellers need to submit compliance documents and successfully pass the review by February 15, 2024, otherwise they will face the risk of being taken off the shelves, and for the "Pool and Spa Facility Drainage Covers" category, sellers need to submit compliance documents and successfully pass the review by February 16, 2024, otherwise they will face the risk of being taken off the shelves.
3. eBay: SpeedPAK shipping fee will be reduced from January 1, 2024
With the recent reduction and stabilization of air freight prices, SpeedPAK cross-border logistics solutions are also continuously integrating high-quality resources to provide sellers with reliable door-to-door cross-border transportation services while optimizing logistics costs. eBay announced that starting from January 1, 2024, Beijing time, the shipping rate of SpeedPAK from Chinese mainland to some countries will be reduced.
Emerging market dynamics
1. Saudi Arabia's PIF became the world's most active sovereign wealth fund in 2023, with a total investment of more than $30 billion
Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) emerged as the world's most active sovereign investor in 2023, outpacing the spending reduction trend of most global peers such as the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and Temasek Holdings. According to research and consulting firm Global SWF, global sovereign wealth funds spent nearly $124 billion in 2023, a decrease of about one-fifth year-on-year. PIF invested $31.6 billion in capital in 2023, up from $20.7 billion the previous year and about a quarter of the global total as a whole. GIC led the decline, with deployed capital falling 46% to $19.9 billion last year, falling to the top of the world's most active sovereign wealth fund for the first time in six years. Temasek's new investment also fell by 53% to US$6.3 billion.
2. Indonesian car sales continued to decline, and the Chinese electric brand Wuling ranked second
According to Just Auto, Indonesia's vehicle sales in November 2023 were 84,390 units, down 7% compared to the same period last year, and sales fell for five consecutive months year-on-year. The decline was mainly due to weaker consumer demand due to higher interest rates, and consumers became more cautious in purchasing high-value goods. Overall, in the first 11 months of this year, total vehicle sales in Indonesia fell slightly by 2% year-on-year to 920,518 units.
Since May, the Indonesian government has lifted the tax on the consumption of pure electric vehicles to encourage citizens to buy electric vehicles. As of November 2023, South Korea's electric brand Hyundai Motor ranked first in the market with sales of 13,900 units, while Chinese brand Wuling Motors ranked second in terms of sales. In addition, according to statistics, Chinese electric brands Nezha and Dongfeng Xiaokang have entered the top five of Indonesia's electric vehicle market.
3. 2023-2028 Asian e-commerce buyer growth forecast: Southeast Asia market potential analysis
From 2023 to 2028, the number of e-commerce buyers in Asia is expected to grow by about 52%, from 1.33 billion to 2.03 billion. The Chinese market will dominate this growth, with an estimated 884 million consumers shopping online, compared to 254 million in the United States. Southeast Asia is also an important growth region, according to eMarketer's "2023 Global Retail E-commerce Forecast Report", Southeast Asia's e-commerce growth rate will lead the world in 2023, which is also the third consecutive year that the region has become the fastest growing region in the world. However, due to global economic uncertainty, the growth rate of e-commerce in Southeast Asia is expected to gradually slow down.
Despite the slowdown, Southeast Asian countries still have huge market potential. Among the ten countries with the fastest growth in global e-commerce scale in 2023, Southeast Asia accounts for four seats, with the Philippines ranking second, Malaysia third, Indonesia seventh, and Vietnam eighth. This shows that despite the challenges, Southeast Asia remains an important potential region in the Asian e-commerce market.
Trends in the service ecosystem
1. Shipping freight remains high, and the number of inquiries about China-Europe trains has increased by 40%.
According to reports, the number of inquiries on the China-Europe freight train has increased significantly due to the high sea freight rates and the impact of the Red Sea incident. Ma Lei, chairman of Xinjiang Zhonggu Yuyu International Trade Co., Ltd., pointed out that since the Red Sea incident, the number of inquiries on the China-Europe train has increased by 40%. For a long time, due to cost considerations, foreign trade enterprises usually choose sea freight as a mode of transportation. However, the current sharp rise in freight rates on Asia-Europe routes has led more and more companies to consider using China-Europe freight trains for cargo transportation.
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