2023 is coming to an end, and 2024 is about to start as a new year. When many people look back on 2023, they have made some summaries and explanations, hoping to take this opportunity to make an effective and reasonable plan for the coming year. The same is true for the United States. On December 27, local time, the U.S. Department of Defense also released an annual summary of materials, showing the outside world for the first time the military achievements of the United States in the "Indo-Pacific region" in 2023. In terms of content, the "year-end report" can be divided into the following three parts, including the deployment posture of the U.S. military in the region, the historic strategic investment in capabilities, and the advancement of a shared regional vision. In more layman's terms, it can be understood that the U.S. military is strengthening its military deployment in the Indo-Pacific region, enhancing the military strength of its allies through military cooperation and other means, and using its strong influence to attract more countries to join the U.S. "Indo-Pacific chariot", deepening the U.S. military's military presence and influence in the region.
The focus here is on the strengthening of the U.S. military's military deployment in the Indo-Pacific region, which may be very clearly reflected in the South China Sea. Through the Marcos administration's initiative, the United States began to strengthen its cooperation with the Philippines in the military field. In the face of the Marcos administration's initiative to show goodwill, the Biden administration is also very happy, and directly promised that as long as Philippine ships or aircraft are attacked in the South China Sea in the future, then the United States will automatically activate the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" to provide the Philippines with necessary military assistance and material support. In order to convince the Philippines that the commitments made by the United States are true and effective, in addition to conducting large-scale joint military Xi exercises with the Philippines, the US military has also held joint military exercises with Japan, Australia, and other countries in the South China Sea Xi demonstrate the strong combat effectiveness of the US military and its determination to fulfill its defense and security commitments. This has also made the Philippines very excited, believing that the United States will become its greatest reliance and support in the South China Sea, and will be able to give it more advantages and initiative in the South China Sea issue.
If that's what the Marcos administration thinks, it's a pipe dream. For the United States, the Philippines is just a pawn and a tool, and when it is useful, it will naturally make a series of commitments and statements, as long as it can act according to the plan formulated by the United States. But if it loses its usefulness, it will be completely abandoned and face a series of serious consequences and problems alone. Just look at today's Ukraine, before the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the Biden administration also made many promises to the Zelensky government that it would support Ukraine and ensure Ukraine's national security, but after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, what is the performance of the United States and its Western allies? As for the possibility that many people in the outside world speculated that the United States might fire a dangerous first shot at China, it is actually very low, or it can be considered that it will not appear at all, because the United States has never thought of breaking out conflict and confrontation with China on the South China Sea issue.
Although the United States will continue to deepen its military cooperation with the Philippines in 2023, the status of the Philippines in the hearts of the United States is only at the level of an ally, and it simply does not meet the standard of a core ally like Japan and South Korea. But even with core allies like Japan and South Korea, the United States may not do its best, so the Philippines is at best a "substitute for the dead" in the eyes of the United States. It is true that at this stage, the United States has nine military bases in the Philippines, but the Marcos administration should also understand that this is actually a means for the United States to push the Philippines to the front of the stage. The Philippines has its own pounds and taels, in fact, the Marcos government knows it very well. On the South China Sea issue, the reason why the Philippines can "compete" with China is not because of its own strength, nor is it the support of external forces such as the United States and Japan that has played a role, but because China has always maintained rationality and restraint, and China has always hoped to resolve the South China Sea issue through negotiation and dialogue, so that ASEAN countries can enjoy the development opportunities brought by the resources of the South China Sea and achieve win-win cooperation.
And now, the Philippines has been tied to the "anti-China chariot" by the United States, and if it wants to fight China to the end, this approach is completely self-defeating. As mentioned earlier, the United States will not engage in confrontation with China for the sake of the Philippines, and the United States cannot afford to pay this price. Although China's overall strength is not as good as that of the United States, if it wants to comprehensively suppress China in the Asia-Pacific region, the current United States can no longer do it, and perhaps the United States will pay a heavy price for this, thereby shaking its superpower status, which means that the Biden administration, which has always put "America First" first, will choose to stay out of the matter at a critical juncture, leaving the Philippines alone to face China's anger.