The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the Russian army is taking advantage of the dilemma of insufficient air defense systems, through continuous "long-range precision strikes", not only continues to deplete the Ukrainian army's almost bottomed out anti-aircraft missile reserves, but also has more benefits: forcing the Ukrainian army to transfer more air defense systems from the front line to the rear, which is conducive to the Russian aviation to expand the bombing of the Ukrainian army on the front line;
At the same time, the Russian army is also actively reserving forces for a new offensive. Ukraine's Main Directorate of Military Intelligence reported that Russian troops are being transferred to Ukraine, and for this reason, the rotation of Russian troops in Syria has even been completely stopped. The Russian army is currently drawn from the Pacific Fleet and the 11th Army of the Aerospace Forces, with the former being transferred 2,000 men and the latter being drawn about 400 people.
Judging from a series of recent actions of the Russian army and related news, although the Russian army still maintains a troop advantage on the battlefield in Ukraine, it seems that this advantage is not big enough in the eyes of the Kremlin or the Russian General Staff. The official statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense that more than 30,000 people can be recruited per month does not seem so credible, and if this is the case, the Russian army can effectively make up for the losses on the battlefield in Ukraine through recruitment alone, and it is more than enough, and there is no need to draw troops from the Far East and other places, let alone possible new mobilization.
And in terms of equipment, the Russian army also has its own problems, which is not to say that the number of heavy equipment of the Russian army is not as good as that of the Ukrainian army, in fact, the Russian army has always maintained an advantage over the Ukrainian army in terms of the number of heavy equipment, but that the number of heavy equipment of the Russian army is far below the need:
Many analysts have noticed the dilemma of the lack of tanks and armored vehicles of the Russian army, and now, the Russian army can only gather dozens of tanks and armored vehicles in an important offensive, and in a general offensive, the Russian army can hardly provide any direct fire support to the infantry, and there are many videos of the Russian infantry attacking on the "Desert Traverser" all-terrain vehicles and even Ural trucks, these vehicles cannot provide any protection for the Russian infantry at all, and they are easily destroyed, bringing serious casualties.
This is not unfounded, after referring to the capacity of the Russian military industry and the equipment mothballs on the satellite map, which are sharply decreasing in size, Forbes magazine believes that the supply of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to the Russian army by the Russian military industry can only last until mid-2025, especially infantry fighting vehicles.
And in fact, Forbes magazine's estimates are likely to be optimistic, since the Kurgan Mechanical Plant, the only manufacturer of infantry fighting vehicles in Russia at the moment, is likely to be washed away by floods: the "Red Star", which is part of the Russian Ministry of Defense TV reported that the flood level in the Orenburg region has risen to a record 10.89 meters (the latest: NEXTA and other media outlets say the water level has exceeded 11 meters), not only inundating a large number of homes but also threatening the Kurgan Mechanical Plant, which is the only plant in Russia that produces infantry fighting vehicles and airborne combat vehicles, and is responsible for repairing and upgrading those mothballed infantry fighting vehicles.
As of April 11 local time, floodwaters have inundated several important workshops of the Kurgan Machinery Plant, and it is likely that all production at the Kurgan Machinery Plant has been suspended. The Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation announced that it was working to transfer some of the key equipment of the Kurgan Machinery Plant and try to reduce losses, but the situation is not optimistic. On April 5, local time, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations announced that a dam in Orsk, Orenburg Oblast, had burst, and Orenburg Oblast and the neighboring Kurgan Oblast had become an ocean.
Interestingly, Sergei Komarov, the head of the Spetsstroy company responsible for the construction of the dam, claimed that the dam burst was due to the destruction of "rodents", but did not blame it on Ukraine, as for netizens believe it or not, it is difficult to say, at least some Russian officials do not believe it, and the Minister of Construction of the Russian Federation Ilyk Fazulin does not believe that the dam cost 960 million rubles at all. "In my opinion, it will cost you no more than 1 billion rubles to build such a dam, this is an earthen embankment, where is a dam. "Hehe, is it familiar?
In addition, the Russian army faces a number of other problems, including the poor quality of the equipment and serious "misfires":
Andrei Esipov, general manager of the company "Pict", which supplies body armor to the Russian army, has just been arrested on suspicion of embezzling a huge amount of more than 2 billion rubles, and the company produces body armor of poor quality and high prices, but it has still become the main supplier of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
"Insider" magazine counted a series of "mishit" accidents suffered by Russian fighters since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian full-scale war, at least half of these mishit accidents occurred this year, and the Mi-24 "Hind" helicopter gunship that was "shot down" on April 10 is likely to be the 13th accident, the Russian army mistakenly hit a total of 4 Su-35 fighters, 3 Su-34 front-line bombers, 2 A-50 early warning aircraft, 1 Su-27 fighter, 1 Mi-8 helicopter, 1 Mi-24 gunship, and 1 Il-22M air command aircraft, the latter was not shot down, but judging from the damaged photos, even if it is not scrapped, it will have to be repaired for a long time.
Note that the "accidental hit" statement was provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense, and we have no way to verify whether this is the case or not. If the claims of the Russian Ministry of Defense are true, good guys, the Russian air defense forces are second only to their Ukrainian counterparts in terms of shooting down Russian fighters.