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Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

author:Trading practitioners

In the past few decades of rapid economic development, along with the continuous progress of electric power, the power technology of the mainland has been far ahead of all countries in the world.

This is not easy, because we have been carrying out electricity reform for more than 40 years, and it continues to this day.

Now we generally think that all power companies are state-owned enterprises, but in fact they were not.

It has only been 20 years since the power reform in 2002 and the implementation of "separation of power plants and grids".

And not long after the reform, it entered a decade-long "quiet period", and it was really on the right track that it was after the release of the "Electricity Reform Document No. 9" in 2015 that a stable and mature situation was formed.

In this process, there are a lot of ups and downs of the story, the current power giants, are established at that time for various reasons, today to talk about "Huaneng Hydropower" is one of them.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

1. Company

After 1970, we gradually had some primary industries, and many households also had some household appliances, so the electricity consumption of society continued to increase significantly.

However, our power system is still very backward, so after the 70s, we have been severely short of electricity for nearly 20 years.

Energy is the foundation of economic construction, and this problem must be solved.

Therefore, in 1985, the "Interim Regulations on Encouraging the Raising of Funds to Run Electricity and the Implementation of Multiple Electricity Prices" was issued, which officially opened the curtain of electric power reform.

The reason why "raising funds to run electricity" is because it is too poor and there is really no way to allocate funds, so it can only be solved by relying on everyone to collect firewood and high flames.

Since it is a fundraising, of course, it needs to have a main body, so two companies, Huaneng International Power and National Energy Investment, were established that year.

Since there are multiple electricity prices, which means that each region is different, many power companies have been established throughout the country.

But only three years later, these large and small power companies, all operating independently, could not be unified in dispatch, and at that time they were still vigorously exploring the site of new hydropower stations, and of course, countless thermal power plants were popping up one after another.

Therefore, the entire power grid can be described as very chaotic, to the point of having to reform.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

In 1993, the Ministry of Energy, which had only been established for five years, was abolished and changed to the Ministry of Electric Power Industry, and the "Electric Power Enterprise Association" was also renamed the "Electric Power Group".

After the top layer was built, the waist must also be strong, so five major power groups in Central China, East China, North China, Northeast China and Northwest China were established one after another.

There is also the bottom layer, which has not fallen, that is, from this time on, in order to solve the problem of lack of electricity in the factory, large energy consumers are allowed to build their own power plants, and in principle, they are not allowed to sell to the outside world, and they can be used for their own use.

Perhaps no one expected at that time that the opening of this opening would actually cause a large amount of capital to pour into the electricity market, and the number of power plants increased significantly in a short period of time, so that local power generation accounted for half of the country's total power generation, which was very unreasonable.

So the consequence was that in the mid-nineties, the power went from a severe shortage to a serious surplus.

In 1996, the "Ministry of Electric Power" was abolished and changed to the State Power Company.

After the establishment of the new company, it immediately did something unexpected to all power plants, and all power plants in major areas of the country were handed over.

So in an instant, it has changed from a shell company to a giant that occupies more than 80% of the country's power grid.

However, this does not include the power plants built by the company, because they are not connected to the grid.

By the end of the 90s, although the management of the entire power system had improved, the actual dispatch and efficiency still failed to fundamentally solve the problem.

Because of the surplus of power generation, all regions give priority to the use of electricity from local power plants, but there are also some areas where the power generation is too large and cannot be consumed locally, what should I do?

There is no choice but to lose money.

At that time, the construction of hydropower stations was strongly advocated, and there were explorers running around every major river in the entire west and southwest.

Yunnan and Sichuan have been particularly positive.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

In 2000, the State Power Corporation, together with the local Yunnan Yundian Group and Yunnan Hongta Industry, established the Lancang River Hydropower Development Company, which was specially established for the development of the Lancang River, and the development rights of the entire river belonged to the company.

However, the original intention of developing water resources was good, but the grid level and system could not keep up with the speed of new power stations, so some hydropower stations caused serious problems.

For example, the famous "Ertan Hydropower Station" is the first hydropower station in the lower reaches of the Yalong River, which cost more than 20 billion yuan when it was built.

In the eighties and nineties, more than 20 billion yuan, that was a lot of money, of course, we ourselves do not have that much money, so most of it depends on the introduction of foreign capital.

However, it was finally built, and it fell into continuous losses, losing nearly 1.3 billion in two years.

The reason is also very simple, the electricity generated cannot be sold, and the electricity or water can only be abandoned.

The leader asked the soul question, why it is impossible to waste water resources while burning coal to generate electricity after spending so much effort to build a large hydropower station.

If it doesn't make sense, it will be changed, so there was the "electricity reform" action in 2002.

The change was very thorough, the formal "separation of plant and network", no longer allowed to build their own power stations, but also eliminated a large number of small power stations, and finally the implementation of the national network of electricity, the remaining major power stations, the implementation of "bidding for the Internet".

This is the famous "Power System Reform (Document No. 5)".

The adjustment of the organizational structure is very large, and the former national power company, which was a dominant state, has been divided into two companies: State Grid and China Southern Power Grid.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

And there are five major power generation groups, namely Huaneng, Huadian, Datang, State Power Investment and Guodian, a few years ago, Guodian and China Shenhua merged, becoming the world's largest power generation group.

It also agreed to set up four auxiliary business groups, namely power engineering consultants, hydropower engineering consultants, water conservancy and hydropower construction groups and Gezhouba groups.

Later, these four and the subordinate design and construction enterprises of the two major power grids were reorganized into China Power Construction and China Energy Construction.

It can be seen from the whole set of frameworks that there are those who set up the stage, those who sing, and those who sell tickets, and the whole dragon is complete.

The Lancang River Hydropower Development Company just mentioned above transferred part of its equity to Huaneng Group, which became today's "Huaneng Hydropower".

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

Now Huaneng Group is still the major shareholder, holding 50.4% of the shares, Yunnan Energy Investment is still the second shareholder, holding 28.26% of the total shares, and Yunnan Hehe is the transfer of the equity of Hongta Group, holding 11.34% of the shares.

These three bigwigs are basically immobile all year round, and they will not sell their shares, so Huaneng Hydropower has very few outstanding shares.

Since the first day of its birth, Huaneng Hydropower has owned a complete Lancang River, which has been developed to this day.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

As you can see in the picture above, the crimson dots are already built, and you can see that most of them have been built.

The gray dots are under construction or in planning, with 9 more and 3 in the planning stage.

This is really a river densely packed with power stations.

In addition to the Lancang River, can't Huaneng Hydropower get the right to build other major rivers?

There may really be, and that is the "Medeau Hydroelectric Power Station" that has been debated before.

2. Three Three Gorges

Of course, this project may not be completed, as I said when I talked about Yangtze Power before, because the project is still in the planning stage, everything may be variable.

It was rumored that it was handed over to the Three Gorges Group, and later it was rumored that it was handed over to Huaneng, and if it was really built, it was likely that Huaneng and Yangtze River Power would be together.

Because according to the preliminary plan, the entire Brahmaputra River will not only be built with a hydropower station in Metuo, but will be built in steps, and the amount of work is too large.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

In order to maximize the use of water resources, it is routine to build stepped hydropower stations.

One of the locations is a big turn of the Brahmaputra River in Metuo, with a drop of more than 2,400 meters, which is much larger than the drop of the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River.

Because Metuo belongs to the plateau area, with an altitude of up to 5,000 meters, the altitude of the entire Brahmaputra River is relatively high, at least 1,000 meters or more.

Then Motuo is cut by the perennial melting of snow and ice, and there are many natural canyons, the deepest of which can even reach 6,000 meters.

For example, the big corner of the Brahmaputra River is very famous, a tourist attraction, and there is the world's longest Grand Canyon, with a total length of more than 500 kilometers, and even the average depth is more than 2,600 meters.

From a topographical point of view, it is undoubtedly very suitable for building a hydropower station.

Although the progress of this plan is very slow, and it can even be said that it is a bit shelved, the official plan has been still being discussed.

Along with this plan, there is also the widely circulated "Red Flag Canal" plan.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

This is a great idea, the Brahmaputra River has no shortage of water, and under normal circumstances, the Himalayas have an abundant supply of water from melting snow and ice.

However, the main direction of the flow of the Brahmaputra River is the Brahmaputra River in India, and then enters the Ganges, the mother river of India, from the Jamuna River.

And the Ganges River nourishes the entire Gangetic plain and is the top priority of India.

If we divert or divert the water flow of the Brahmaputra River and transport it to the water-scarce areas in the northwest through the Hongqi Canal Project, it will naturally be of great benefit to us.

But leaving aside the feasibility and difficulty of the project, India will certainly not agree.

You must know that the population of the Gangetic Plain is 700 million, that is, half of their population is in this area, and it is also the most densely populated region in the world.

If we really control the Brahmaputra River, we will indirectly control part of the Ganges Plain.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

For example, in a drought year, of course, we must first meet our own needs, and the grain production of the Gangetic Plain is estimated to be reduced.

For another example, if one day is not careful, due to that special situation, the reservoir of the hydropower station runs out, then they will be miserable downstream.

There is a "Lord Shiva" in India, and every time the Ganges River floods, Shiva will wash his hair in the river, and the river will be docile.

I estimate that with the power of hydropower stations, washing your hair may not be enough.

According to experts' estimates, if the hydropower station is built, the installed capacity will be at least 60 million kilowatts, and the power generation capacity will be as high as 300 billion kilowatt hours.

This is three times the size of the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River.

It may be precisely because the benefits are so great, so although it is difficult, the plan has not been rejected.

Theoretically, the development right of the Brahmaputra River should belong to Huaneng, because the buildings near the water are the first to get the moon, and since the entire Lancang River belongs to Huaneng, then the Yarlung Zangbo River, which is located further west, Huaneng must be closer.

However, Yangtze Power has the treasure of the Three Gorges, and it must be more experienced in the construction and operation of super-large hydropower stations.

After all, there is only one Three Gorges in China.

So such a large hydropower station in Motuo must be inseparable from the strong support of Yangtze River Power.

Therefore, if it is really to be developed, it should be the cooperation between Huaneng and Yangtze Power, which may also be the last major project of Yangtze Power.

3. Business

Since it is the only hydropower station platform under Huaneng Group, of course, the business is mainly hydropower.

As of the first half of this year, Huaneng Hydropower has an installed capacity of 24,332,800 kilowatts, which is certainly the largest in Yunnan.

Let's take a look at each of its hydropower stations.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

The Lancang River is divided into three sections, the upstream is the Tibet section, and there are no hydropower stations that have been built.

However, there are 8 in the plan, which is also the source of the market's general belief that Huaneng will have a lot of growth in the future.

The middle reaches are the Yunnan section, in fact, this section also belongs to the upper reaches of the Lancang River, where a total of 7 hydropower stations are planned, 5 have been built, one is under construction, and another is still in the planning.

The first is the Wulonglong Hydropower Station, which was only completed and put into operation in 2019.

The scale is not very large, the dam is 130.5 meters high, the storage capacity is 284 million cubic meters, the installed capacity is 990,000 kilowatts, and the annual power generation is 4.45 billion kilowatt hours.

Next to Wulong, is the Lidi Hydropower Station.

This was only completed and put into operation in 2019, and the scale is even smaller.

The height of the dam is only 76.6 meters, the storage capacity is 75 million cubic meters, the installed capacity is 420,000 kilowatts, and the annual power generation is 1.95 billion kilowatt hours.

The latter one is still under construction, and across this one is the Huangdeng Hydropower Station, which was also put into operation in 2019 and is not large-scale.

The dam is 203 meters high, with a storage capacity of 1.67 billion cubic meters, an installed capacity of 1.9 million kilowatts, and an annual power generation capacity of 8.57 billion kilowatt hours.

Then there is the Dahuaqiao Hydropower Station, which was put into operation in 2019 and is even smaller.

The dam is 103 meters high, with a storage capacity of 290 million cubic meters, an installed capacity of 920,000 kilowatts, and an annual power generation capacity of 3.92 billion kilowatt hours.

The last hydropower station in the Yunnan section of the upper reaches of the Lancang River is the Miaowei Hydropower Station.

This one is slightly larger and went into operation in 2018.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

The dam height of the hydropower station is 131 meters, the storage capacity is 660 million cubic meters, the installed capacity is 1.4 million kilowatts, and the annual power generation capacity is 6.56 billion kilowatt hours.

In the middle and lower reaches of the Lancang River, the first is the Gongguoqiao Hydropower Station, which is not large in scale and was built very early, and was put into operation in 2012.

The dam is 105 meters high, with a storage capacity of 320 million cubic meters, an installed capacity of 900,000 kilowatts, and an annual power generation capacity of 4.04 billion kilowatt hours.

Earlier than this is the Xiaowan hydropower station, which is much larger and was built earlier, having been in operation since 2010.

The dam is 294.5 meters high, with a storage capacity of 15 billion cubic meters, an installed capacity of 4.2 million kilowatts, and an annual power generation capacity of 19 billion kilowatt hours.

Next is an old antique, Manwan Hydropower Station, the hand-tai unit was put into operation in 1993, and of course it was expanded for many years.

The scale is also okay, with a dam height of 132 meters, a storage capacity of 920 million cubic meters, an installed capacity of 1.67 million kilowatts, and an annual power generation capacity of 7.66 billion kilowatt hours.

This is also the first million-kilowatt hydropower station in Yunnan.

The Nuozhadu Hydropower Station in the back is not small in scale and is the leader of Huaneng Hydropower.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

This is the fifth-level power station of the cascade planning of the middle and lower reaches of the Lancang River.

The dam is 261.5 meters high, with a storage capacity of 23.7 billion cubic meters, an installed capacity of 5.85 million kilowatts, and an annual power generation capacity of 23.9 billion kilowatt hours.

There is also the last power station that has been put into operation, Jinghong Power Station.

This power station is still more symbolic in Huaneng, because this is the first million-kilowatt hydropower station in Huaneng after the power reform.

The dam is 108 meters high, with a storage capacity of 1.14 billion cubic meters, an installed capacity of 1.75 million kilowatts, and an annual power generation of 7.8 billion kilowatt hours.

There is also one each in Cambodia and Myanmar, both of which are relatively small.

We can see from the data of Huaneng Hydropower's main power stations that the scale of the company's hydropower stations is not large, far from being comparable with Yangtze Power.

For example, the Three Gorges has an installed capacity of 22.5 million kilowatts, and the Xiluodu, Wudongde and Baihetan hydropower stations also have an installed capacity of more than 10 million kilowatts.

This is mainly because the Lancang River originates in the Tanggula Mountains, and the amount of water is not so large, the upstream mainly depends on groundwater and ice and snow meltwater, and the middle and lower reaches mainly rely on precipitation, far less than the Yangtze River, so it is impossible to build a super-large hydropower station.

Fourth, performance

Huaneng Hydropower's performance in the past three years has been relatively stable.

This year's financial report has certain peculiarities.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

The above figure is the performance of the third quarter, the revenue in the first three quarters was 18.14 billion, a year-on-year decrease of -2.85%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%.

Looking at the performance of Huaneng Hydropower, it is recommended to look directly at the financial report, not the data on the software.

Because Sichuan Energy was acquired this year, the previous data will be retrospectively adjusted after consolidation, so the adjusted data will change significantly.

In fact, the logic of hydropower stations and thermal power stations is very simple, especially hydropower stations, which do not need to consider the long-term price of coal.

There are only two factors that affect the performance of hydropower enterprises, the first is God's face, and the second is the feed-in tariff.

For example, the amount of water in the Lancang River this year is not enough, so the power generation in the first half of the year was only 37.095 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year decrease of 25.44%.

The generator is assembled there, and if there is water, it can generate electricity, if there is electricity, it can be connected to the grid, and if it is sent out, it can make money, it's as simple as that.

Therefore, power generation fell by 25.44%, and revenue and net profit must decline.

As for the electricity price, it is set by the National Development and Reform Commission, and it has nothing to do with Huaneng Hydropower itself.

So in essence, hydropower companies can't control their own performance to a large extent.

But there is one thing that can be controlled, and that is the expense.

The annual expenditure of three or four billion yuan is not a lot compared to the annual net profit of six or seven billion yuan.

However, the main thing in this is the financial fee, and the other costs can also be ignored, which is really bitter.

Because the debt was too high before, when I talked about its power stations earlier, I should remember that many power stations were only put into operation in 2019.

Therefore, the company's debt-to-asset ratio is still at a high level, and there is an upward trend.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

The asset-liability ratio has now reached 64.21%, much higher than the level of Yangtze Power in previous years.

This year, Yangtze River Power bought Yunchuan, resulting in this year's debt ratio is also 64%, which will be said later when analyzing Yangtze River Power.

Huaneng Hydropower will be short of money for a long time in the future, because it does have many power stations waiting to be developed.

Therefore, until the Lancang River is developed, the company's financial pressure will always be relatively large.

This actually doesn't matter, just like before 2013.

To put it another way, for high-quality assets such as hydropower stations, Huaneng Hydropower only has short-term borrowings of 9.8 billion yuan and long-term borrowings of 82.6 billion yuan, with a total interest-bearing debt of less than 100 billion yuan, which is not very high, but it is not low.

Anyway, make money slowly and pay it back slowly, and it will not affect a bug in the hydropower station.

That is, the actual useful life of the asset, which is much higher than the depreciation life.

That is, after the depreciation in previous years, a large amount of extra profits will be made every year, and this is the case for all hydropower companies.

Who is better, Huaneng Hydropower or Yangtze Power? Will the Brahmaputra really be developed?

5. Summary

Hydropower companies are relatively simple, the risk is relatively low, the financial is simpler, and basically does not require much accounting foundation.

Anyway, how much installed capacity the company has, as long as the water is fine, it can generate so much electricity, and the on-grid electricity price will not fluctuate very much, so the performance logic is also very simple and easy to estimate.

Huaneng Hydropower is still in the development stage, but it is a bit regrettable that the scale of the Lancang River is really small.

If the Brahmaputra River can really be developed, it may surpass the Yangtze River power, otherwise the scale will basically not be able to grow significantly.

Special statement: The content only represents personal views and does not constitute any investment guidance, according to which you buy and sell, profit and loss at your own risk, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious!

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