Can I still cast the NAI now?

The market has been below 3,000 points for several days, and I believe everyone is in a bad mood. However, to my surprise, in the Q&A on Thursday, everyone asked questions more actively, and it seems that our investors are still relatively mature, and they are not lying flat, and they are thinking about doing something to "save themselves".

As a rule, we have selected a few of the questions from everyone with strong universality to share with you. Can I still invest in the NAI now? Can I change the deep set of funds I bought to other funds that I like? At this position, can I transfer part of my "fixed income minus" to an active equity fund, and how much is appropriate? What is the driving force behind the repair of market valuation? Is the redemption fee charged according to the first-in-first-out or first-in-last-out rules?

Question 1

Can I still cast the NAI now?

Investing in the Nasdaq now is risky.

The current problem with U.S. stocks is that they are overvalued, with the Nasdaq 100 being valued at more than 35 times, which is nearly 90% higher than in the past 10 years.

Data source: wind, as of 2023.12.22

In particular, in the past period, the market has taken a very strong expectation of interest rate cuts, the rise is large and fast, the index has reached a relatively high level, at this time many investors have the need to settle down, and technically, the S&P 500 Relative Strength Index shows that the benchmark index is currently at the most overbought level since September 2020, and the possibility of a reversal adjustment at this time increases.

High valuations need a good performance to support, and if the performance can't keep up, the stock price will still fall.

The day before yesterday, FedEx, which was regarded as a barometer of the economy, performed poorly, and its stock price plummeted, which still put some pressure on U.S. stocks. The results of other economy-related indices on the US side will also affect the stock price movement. In other words, when the stock price rises to a relatively high level, the emergence of some unstable factors can easily increase the panic of investors

In addition, we all know that the United States is now facing the question of whether the economy can have a soft landing after a crazy interest rate hike, which is still waiting to be seen.

However, there is also an optimistic side, the constituent stocks of the Nasdaq are mainly some high-tech, high-performance growth advantage leading companies, such as Apple, Google, Nvidia, Pepsi, Starbucks, Netflix, etc., the asset quality is relatively good, if the interest rate is cut, it is also more beneficial to growth stocks.

Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment or asset allocation, you can buy, but it is recommended to enter the light position, and then take a look, and be cautious from the perspective of short-term games.

Question 2

Hello teacher, I bought the flexible allocation of China Post military-civilian integration before, deep set -33%, and the fund manager has also changed now, and I want to change it to the active fund Harvest Information Industry of science and technology, or the Science and Technology Innovation 100ETF, please comment, thank you!

China Post's fund manager has just changed, and the new fund manager Wang Gao has also managed the fund in the past, but the current performance is relatively backward, and it is difficult to say how to do it later, in order to reduce uncertainty, it can indeed be considered to be replaced.

Wang Gao has served as a fund

Data source: wind, as of 2023.12.20

The Harvest information industry you mentioned, mainly invested in computers (accounting for more than 70%), this fund manager Li Tao only started to manage equity funds at the end of 2021, and he was co-managed with others before, and the main investment direction of several funds managed before was not very different, and it is difficult to judge his role in it, and how well he can mine the computer field, relatively speaking, I am unlikely to take this risk, you can judge for yourself.

And then you have to figure out what you're missing in your portfolio? How optimistic are you about the computer track? Whether you want to exchange an aggressive military-industrial fund for another equally radical computer-themed fund.

The Science and Technology Innovation 100 ETF is a fund that tracks the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index, which is a relatively balanced technology base, mainly including mainstream technology industries such as medicine and biology, electronics, and power equipment, as well as a relatively small number of computers. If there is no clear direction to invest in the technology track, you can consider this kind of balanced index fund, which can also reduce the trouble of changing fund managers.

Data source: wind, as of 2023.12.20

If you want to know which funds you should choose to invest in the Science and Technology Innovation 100, send a private message to "Science and Technology".

Question 3

I still have a certain position of fixed income plus products (actually fixed income minus, about 4% of the total position), this year is also losing, in the current position, do you want to transfer a part of the position to the active stock mixed base, how much is appropriate? (the maximum drawdown should not exceed 20% as much as possible)

If it were me, I would consider turning a part, and the point I considered was that the cost performance of stocks and bonds was at a historical high, that is, stocks were more worthy of allocation than bonds, and from other dimensions, the conclusion was that the current equity market was in a very low position, in this case, the more rational idea was to appropriately reduce the allocation of bonds and increase the allocation of stocks.

As for how much to turn, it depends on how much risk you can tolerate. Do you want the maximum drawdown to be no more than 20%, from now on?

To be honest, at this point, there is not much room for the stock market to fall, but there is more room for growth. But you can assess the proportion of stocks based on the fact that stocks continue to fall by 30% (which is extreme for balanced and broad-based index funds, and the industry base is different), and if so, the maximum drawdown of 20% is roughly estimated to correspond to six or seven percent of the stock position (20% ÷ 30% = 0.67). Of course, remember to take profit, otherwise you will be on another roller coaster, and the maximum drawdown from another high may be more than 20%.

If your portfolio wants to have a maximum drawdown of no more than 20% over a longer period, it is based on the performance of historical indices or you want to allocate equity hybrid funds. Generally, the maximum drawdown of 35% for stock assets is relatively large, and the maximum drawdown of 5% for bonds is 50% for bonds, so the maximum drawdown of 20% is to allocate up to 50% of stock assets.

Data source: Calculated by Haomai Research Xi

Question 4

Teacher, what is the driving force behind valuation repair?

Valuations are affected by market interest rates or monetary policy, as well as investors' risk appetite and investor expectations.

At present, I think the main thing that is lacking is confidence, and confidence comes from the economic recovery, the rebound of the corporate earnings cycle, so that everyone really feels that it is getting better, or a stronger stimulus, so that the market has a money-making effect. For example, the end of the US dollar interest rate hike cycle, the opening of domestic monetary policy space, and the entry of more national teams and long-term funds into the market to boost confidence.

This is also the main driver of the market valuation repair that follows. At present, the gradual improvement of corporate earnings, the imminent entry of the United States into a cycle of interest rate cuts, the repeated easing of the mainland's monetary policy, and the support of various funds have also been on the top, and we believe that the valuation will slowly recover.

Question 5

When using regular investment, is the holding time of the fund's take-profit charged according to the first-in-first-out, or first-in, last-out calculation interval?

Any investment method of public funds is subject to redemption fees in accordance with the first-in, first-out rule. That is, according to the order of your buying, the shares that you bought first will be sold first.

The specific redemption rate is related to the holding time, for example, the redemption rules of a fund are as follows:

Data source: Haomai Fund APP

Holding days refer to the natural days between the redemption confirmation date and the subscription confirmation date, including holidays and weekends.

If you subscribe to a new fund, the fund establishment date is the first day of the holding period, if you are subscribed, the transaction confirmation date is the first day of the holding period, and when you redeem, the natural day before the redemption confirmation date is the last day of the holding period. Generally, funds are confirmed on T+1 day, QDII funds are confirmed on T+2 day, and the confirmation date for buying and selling is a working day.

In addition, a punitive redemption fee of 1.5% will be charged for shares held for less than 7 days, so if you invest regularly, pay attention to whether the last share has been held for 7 days when redeeming, and if you are not satisfied, the redemption rate will be higher.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.

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