【Military Subplane】Author: Lele
On December 20, the "Observer Network" quoted TASS news agency as saying that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the results of the special military operation that lasted for nearly 20 months at an internal meeting, which specifically mentioned that the casualties of the Ukrainian army were about 383,000, which was far lower than expected by the outside world, which also triggered a series of reactions.
▲ Casualties intuitively reflect the cost of war
Prior to this, public opinion had not obtained a more reliable casualty figure from the warring parties, and Russia's official reported casualties were still fixed at more than 5,000 last year. The Ukrainian side has been announcing its results, according to its latest report, the Russian army has lost 350,000 people, but this is obviously an impossible number. Even if the casualty ratio is extrapolated at 2:1, this means that Russia has more than 1 million casualties, which is a total collapse figure for the Russian Army/Airborne Forces/Mercenary Forces, which had less than 400,000 before the war and did not exceed 1 million in several mobilizations. Generally speaking, people prefer to speculate on the casualty figures of both sides from obituaries, relatively neutral statistical standards, and leaked documents of the US military. However, due to the fierce battlefield firefight, the final estimate is generally high, and the casualty figure of 383,000 can be regarded as revealing the true side of the modern battlefield.
▲The lethal effect of modern equipment is very strong
The roar of artillery, the spitting of tongues of fire, and the continuous firing of even individual light weapons are typical of the outside world's impression of actual combat videos, but the heavy fire does not represent a high casualty figure. In the European theater of World War I, the traditional dense arrays collapsed in the face of even more intense firepower, and the Battle of Verdun alone caused nearly a million casualties on both sides. Since then, the firepower of the engagement has been increasing, but the density of battlefield personnel has been declining. In film and television works, everyone stands side by side in a trench, or the "crowd tactic" of queuing up to charge, which is far from the actual situation. The Russian-Ukrainian war broke out in 2022, and although both sides have a large number of old Soviet-made weapons, the characteristics of information warfare are still strong. Except for a small number of street battles, the front-line infantry mainly exists as a reconnaissance node at the top of the battle line, with a small number and low distribution density, and the lack of its own firepower is compensated for by calling in rear artillery or even air support. In this case, the human losses of the warring sides were much lower than outside speculation.
▲ The way the front-line infantry fights has changed dramatically
In general, it is very difficult to count the casualty figures of the opponent in a war, and the historical experience of the domestic army shows that the more long-range firepower is used, the greater the error in the estimation of casualties. In addition to the subjective judgment of front-line combatants, this kind of error also has the consideration that the army itself has "a large amount of materials consumed, and there must be corresponding results, otherwise it will not appear incompetent", but the most important thing is that the long-range killing effect can only be inferred visually, and it is impossible to confirm the real damage, and it is even difficult to distinguish the real and false targets. In other words, under normal circumstances, the number of 383,000 casualties should be watery, and it should be roughly at the level of 20 to 300,000 total casualties. Compared to the previous speculation of hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of casualties, this is a bit unbelievable, but this is the reality. Because the most likely to have a large number of casualties on the battlefield is continuous offensive and interspersed encirclement, and the overall offensive time of both Russia and Ukraine is not long.
▲ Both warring sides make extensive use of long-range fire to support the battlefield
After ending the early strong offensive on both the north and the south, the Russian army quickly turned to an active defense, and the two sides repeatedly fought over several areas, which had the flavor of a traditional "meat grinder". However, as mentioned above, the density of infantry on the front line on both sides in the information age is very low, and the large amount of fire support in the rear is enough to support the battlefield, and not many people have fallen in the fighting. Later, if the Russian army further shrinks the front and fully defends, the casualties will be even lower. The same is true for Ukraine, where General Shoigu mentioned in his report that 159,000 of the 383,000 casualties came after this year's summer counteroffensive, which is largely consistent with what has been observed outside. In other words, the casualties of the Russian army were mainly concentrated in the early period, especially in the fierce battles on the southern front, with a large number of casualties among poorly trained infantry and mercenaries. And the Ukrainian army, which is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, has paid a heavy price for its reckless offensive.
▲ The Russian front-line infantry team has gone through a period of chaos
As for interspersed encirclement, it is even more interesting, so far there have been no examples of both sides forming a formation encirclement and destroying the opponent, how to say, the soldiers on both sides seem to be very good at preserving themselves. When occupying the advantage, it is almost impossible to see the tactical intention of preparing to intersperse encirclement and fight a war of annihilation, and once it is in a prominent position, it often retreats very quickly, in a word, it is a positional battle against bombardment, the battle line is repeatedly pulled, and the shells are hit out in tons, but the damage is really not high. Not long ago, several relatively independent media outlets joined forces to try to investigate the casualties on the Russian side, and as of the beginning of this month, the number of casualties was 38,261. Assuming a typical 3:1 casualty ratio, plus some missing figures, the total number of casualties of the Russian army should be around 15 to 200,000. Compared with the above-mentioned casualties of the Ukrainian army, it is roughly at an exchange ratio of 1:1.5, which should be relatively close to the actual casualties on the battlefield.
▲The Chechen troops under Kadyrov are typical
However, behind the total casualty figures, the casualty ratio is also a very complex thing. It is generally believed that under modern rescue conditions, the casualty ratio of 3:1 is a watershed, and the efficiency of a normally functioning field rescue system is higher, and vice versa. The U.S. military has achieved a rescue ratio higher than 3:1 on the Korean battlefield, and the Vietnam War has further increased, but both Russia and Ukraine seem to be not doing well. Russia's field ambulance conditions are slightly better, but the previously announced ratio is also around 2.5:1, and the Ukrainian side is even worse, probably slightly higher than 2:1. Poor rescue is a heavy blow to morale, and a lower casualty ratio means more losses, after all, the wounded can be returned, which may be the reason for the slightly different conscription situations between the two sides.
Resources:
https://www.toutiao.com/article/7314521158387614249/?channel=&source=search_tab